Situation update

Updated February 11, 2022, 2:30 EST

Situation update

• According to U.S. intelligence, Russia has reached 70% of the forces it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The same report warned of as many as 50,000 civilian deaths in the event of a Russian assault on Kyiv. This comes as updated satellite images now show that the Russian field army that was stationed near Yelnya has moved to a town 50 kilometers from the Ukraine border. The buildup is likely to continue under the auspices of the ongoing Russian-Belorussian "Allied Resolve" military exercise that is not set to conclude until 20 February. 
• On 07 February, the United Kingdom diverted 350 Royal Marines from Norway to Poland and Germany pledged to send 350 more troops to Lithuania.
• Russian President Putin met with French President Macron on Monday. While no agreement was reached, Putin stated the discussion was, “rather feasible for creating a foundation for our further steps.” Meanwhile, in Washington, German Chancellor Scholz met with U.S. President Biden to discuss a cohesive response to the ongoing crisis. President Biden vowed to shut down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - which is set to bring Russian fuel to Germany - if President Putin issues the order to invade Ukraine.
• To combat the increase in Russian cyber operations in Ukraine, Microsoft released an updated report on the techniques, tactics, and procedures (TTPs) used by ACTINIUM, a Russian FSB-linked threat group based in Crimea. The group is showing increased activity using attachments in phishing emails that imitate official correspondence to gain access to networks in Ukraine.
• Russian ships are on track to arrive at the Black Sea between 08 February and 11 February for naval exercises, constituting the largest Russian naval grouping in the area since the fall of the USSR.

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 
• Secure your assets and prepare your emergency evacuation plan.

Support

Situation update

• The formal U.S. response to Russian demands was leaked to a Spanish news outlet with its authenticity being confirmed by Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby. In this proposal, the U.S. offered to allow the inspection of NATO's Aegis Ashore defense systems in Poland and Romania to confirm the absences of Tomahawk cruise missiles in exchange for inspections of two missile sites in Russia. The text confirms that there is space to negotiate European security framework and arms control; however, Russia's key demands will not be met.
• On 03 February, in his first major media conference in a month, President Putin underscored that the West continues to ignore Russia's core demands, namely no further NATO expansion and a rolling back of NATO "infrastructure" to 1997 lines—tantamount to rewriting the NATO charter and abandoning the alliance's former bloc members, obvious non-starters. While the counter-proposal is a start, it alone will not likely be enough to have justified President Putin's high-stakes gambit.
• On the military front, the U.S. announced it would send 2,000 troops to Poland and Germany and redeploy 1,000 troops from Germany to Romania. The presence of Russian Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems in Belarus has been confirmed, bringing the number of Iskander missile launchers near Ukraine to approximately 50. The Iskander platform is a dual-use mobile short-range ballistic missile system that could be used to target surface-to-air missile batteries, airfields, ports, command and communication centers, and other critical military targets. 
• In the information space, on 03 February, Moscow shut down Deutsche Welle’s operations in Russia in retaliation for Germany banning broadcasting of RT Deutsch. The U.S. also publicized declassified U.S. intelligence that Russia was planning a fake false flag attack to be used in a propaganda video as a pretext to attack Ukraine. The U.S. hopes that by making this plan public, it will not come to fruition.
• Diplomatic efforts are continuing as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Moscow on 01 February to lower tensions and increase gas imports from Russia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on 03 February to offer to act as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow. French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Moscow on 07 February and then to Kyiv on 08 February.

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 
• Secure your assets and prepare your emergency evacuation plan.

Support

Situation update

• Diplomatic efforts continue apace, with the U.S. Secretary of State holding talks with his Russian counterpart today. Last week, the U.S. delivered a formal written proposal addressing Russian demands. The U.S. has now received a written response from Russia. While many of Russia's demands are seen in Washington and Brussels as non-starters, the U.S. believes that there is mutually beneficial headway to be made in the realm of arms control. On 31 January, UK Prime Minister Johnson spoke with Russian President Putin.
• In the backdrop of the diplomatic talks, economic sanctions packages are starting to take shape. A bipartisan sanctions package is near completion in the U.S. Senate. The sanctions are purported to target major Russian banks, pension funds, and will limit the trade of Russian sovereign debt. In addition, the U.S. and NATO allies have prepared a list of Russian elites and family members to hit with economic sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine.
• Armaments continue to pour into the region. Over five 80-ton shipments of U.S. weapons have arrived in Ukraine over the last two weeks. The U.K. and other NATO members have also delivered arms to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On 26 January, a key leader in the Russian Duma put forward a motion to authorize weapons transfers to the separatist republics in the Donbas.
• On 31 January, the US State Department ordered families of members of US government employees to leave Belarus, according to a travel advisory issued Monday. According to U.S. intelligence, there is evidence that Russia intends to expand its footprint in Belarus from its current 5,000 to 30,000 troops by early February.
• On 28 January, it was reported that Russia moved medical units with blood supplies and other casualty-treating materials near the Ukraine border. It is unclear when this development was actually detected by U.S. intelligence. The pre-positioning of these medical units is seen as one of the final logistical preparations needed prior to an invasion.
• On 31 January, the head of the separatist LPR Leonid Pasechnik accused Ukraine of moving heavy weapons into the Donbas. Ukrainian aggression—real or perceived—helps create the casus belli for Russian intervention. 
• Click here for the latest map highlighting troop positions. Note: The troops positioned in the breakaway region of Transnistria (Moldova) are not formally members of the Russian Armed Forces. 

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 

Support

Situation update

On Monday, 24 January, the Iran-backed Houthis launched two ballistic missiles towards (1) Al Dhafra Air Base, in Abu Dhabi, UAE where U.S. forces are stationed. U.S. Patriot air defense systems successfully neutralized the missiles with no damage reported and only minor disruptions to air traffic at (2) Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH). This week’s attack comes on the heels of another Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi that occurred on 17 January. Using at least five Quds-2 missiles and an unspecified number of Sammad-3 drones, the Houthis targeted an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company fuel depot, in (3) Mussafah, killing three foreign workers and wounding six. The attack also targeted a construction site at the Abu Dhabi International Airport.

Situation update

• On 23 January 2022, the U.S. Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of certain Embassy personnel and ordered the departure of eligible family members from Embassy Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action. State continues to recommend that U.S. citizens in Ukraine consider departing now using commercial or other privately available transportation options.
• Global Guardian clients with expats in Ukraine should strongly consider leaving the country while commercial flight options remain available, as airspace is likely to SHUT DOWN in the event of a Russian invasion.
• In the event of war, the Ukrainian government could seize private security company equipment and draft personnel into the military, limiting the ability to evacuate overland or even arrange secure transportation to the airport.
• The Russian stock market has crashed and is down more than 15% since the start of the year as investors begin to price in both conflict and economic sanctions.  
• The UK accused Russia of plotting to overthrow the Ukrainian government and install a pro-Moscow leader, naming former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a potential candidate, alleging that he was in contact with Russian intelligence. Russia has denied these claims.
• There are over 100,000 Russian troops staged in multiple locations near Ukraine’s borders, including in Belarus. Divisions from the far east of Russia have moved in toward Ukraine, signaling an invasion may be near. U.S. intelligence assesses that this number could rapidly swell to 175,000 should President Putin make the decision to invade Ukraine. 
• The UK, U.S., and other nations continue to provide military equipment to Ukraine; however, no troop commitments have been made.
• Diplomatic talks continue between the U.S. and Russia; however, little progress appears to have been made.

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 

Support

Situation update

• Kazakhstan continues to experience significant nationwide unrest with major disruptive impacts across sectors. As a result, President Tokayev called on the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russian-dominated regional security bloc, for help in quelling the violence. Some 2,500 Russia troops deployed to Kazakhstan to help secure strategic infrastructure and assist domestic security forces.
• President Tokayev issued a critical "red-level" terror alert for the country, classifying all protesters as "terrorists" and empowering local security forces to shoot on sight and without warning. The order also allows security forces broad ability to search and seize, block movement, and monitor telecom activity. At least 130 protesters have been killed thus far while at least 20 security personnel have also been killed in the unrest since 04 January. 
• While the scale of protest activity and violence has reportedly began to diminish outside Almaty, an unknown number of Kazakhstani police and military have joined protesters or been disarmed. Additionally, weapons depots have been looted, raising the specter of heavy violence in the future.
• The city of Almaty continues to experience unrest and clashes through 07 January, with reports of an explosion in the northeastern part of the city followed by a chemical smell. Additional violence is likely in central Almaty and other parts of the city. 
• An internet blackout continues in Kazakhstan, along with disruptions to telecom services, making it difficult to confirm government reporting on the situation. All internet-dependent industries continue to face disruptions.
• Grocery stores, banks, and gas stations continue to experience supply or security issues.
• Both Almaty International Airport and Nur-Sultan International Airport are reportedly under Russian military control, with no commercial or private flight operations allowed; however, Air Astana will reportedly resume services from Nur-Sultan airport later today, with international flights to Dubai and Moscow and domestic flights to Atyrau, Shymkent and Turkestan. Additional international services to Frankfurt and Kutaisi (Georgia) will resume on 8 January 2022 and to Istanbul on 9 January 2022.
  

Situation update

• Overnight on 04-05 January 2022 and through the morning, at least 5,000 people took to the streets of the commercial capital Almaty, the political capital Nur-Sultan, Aktau, and other cities to protest rising fuel prices and shortages. As the protests expanded, they grew more broadly antigovernmental in nature.
• The unrest in Almaty turned violent, with protesters setting fire to the Akimat government building near Republic Square. Security forces used rubber bullets, tear gas, and flash grenades to attempt to clear protesters. At least 200 protesters and 100 police officers have been injured in the unrest in Almaty alone.
• Reports indicate President Tokayev accepted the resignation of the Prime Minister along with government ministers.
• There is now an internet blackout in Kazakhstan, along with disruptions to telephone services and several websites have been blocked as well. 
• Protesters reportedly entered and occupied Almaty International Airport during afternoon hours local time on 05 January, prompting evacuation of airport staff. Passengers had been evacuated earlier in the day as a precaution.
• Protesters reportedly entered and occupied Almaty International Airport during afternoon hours local time on 05 January, prompting evacuation of airport staff. Passengers had been evacuated earlier in the day as a precaution.
• President Tokayev declared a state of emergency, which includes a 2300-0700 curfew, for Almaty and the Mangistau region, while a curfew is in effect for the capital Nur-Sultan. Both are set to last until at least 19 January. 

Situation update

• On 20 December 2021, the U.S. Department of State declared a “Level 4: Do Not Travel Advisory” for Ukraine, citing “increased threats from Russia.” This warning comes amid a major Russian military buildup along Ukraine’s borders that began in late March. Starting in November, Russia began to mobilize its logistics and other military support units in a deliberate and highly overt manner, giving Moscow the ability to initiate offensive operations in Ukraine with little notice or warning.

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• Concern over the Omicron variant appears to be lessening as more data comes out. A preliminary study in South Africa shows Omicron to cause significantly less severe illness than the Delta variant or the original strain of COVID-19. The study showed that hospital admissions are significantly lower during the Omicron-driven fourth wave—38 admissions per 1,000, compared with 101 per 1,000 during the Delta-driven wave, and 131 per 1,000 when the Beta variant was dominant.

• While the Omicron variant does appear to evade immunity much more than other variants, the data out of South Africa shows that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine’s efficacy against severe illness and hospitalization was still about 70 percent after two doses. 

• Data out of Britain shows that after six months, two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine provided no protection at all from infection from Omicron. Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech had an effectiveness of just 34 percent. But a Pfizer-BioNTech booster had an effectiveness of 75 percent against infection.

• As a result of the positive data, and its own surge, the United Kingdom reversed course on banning travel from southern Africa, and removed all countries from its "Red List" on 15 December. 

• While the UK dropped its travel bans, others have issued new bans on travel:

  • France has banned all travel to and from the UK starting 18 December, unless there is a compelling reason, due to concerns over the surge in cases in the UK. 

  • South Korea and Hong Kong have issued new travel bans for multiple countries, including in Africa and elsewhere.