Situation update

• Russia’s Legislative Commission has approved a bill that will allow the state to seize organizations owned 25% or more by foreign entities from “unfriendly” countries if they do not resume normal operations. Over the past week, the Russian labor force has faced a flood of unemployment as major foreign businesses close shop in Russia.
• Starbucks, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are among the latest major business to stop operations in Russia. 
• Russian Central Bank officials announced that sale of foreign currencies to citizens is suspended at all banks until at least 09 September, due to international sanctions. For withdrawals of over USD10,000, the balance must be made using roubles instead of dollars.
• The Russian Duma has approved amendments that will allow the creation of a unified register of individuals that have been declared “foreign agents.” The Russian government currently maintains a similar register for business entities, which allows for systemic discrimination of affected persons in Russia.
• President Biden signed an executive order on 08 March to ban new investments on Russian oil, liquified natural gas, and coal imports to the U.S. Gas prices have risen to an all-time high stateside as refiners cut back on contracts with Russia.
• The EU enacted a never-before-used temporary protection scheme, allowing Ukrainian nationals who flee war to be granted permission to live and work in EU member states for up to three years.
• Russian forces appear to have made progress south toward Kyiv's western flank. Despite heavy losses of both soldiers and equipment, Russia's army continues to make slow but steady territorial gains in Ukraine. 
• Over the last several days, there has been a reported softening of negotiating positions on both sides. Ukraine is reportedly open to "neutrality" and to back away from its NATO bid. In addition, Ukrainian President Zelensky has sent out conflicting signals regarding his willingness to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Meanwhile, Russia has signaled it may be able to live next to a (mostly) sovereign Ukraine if the Donbas is demilitarized. Ultimately, it remains unclear if a peace deal is likely in the near-term. 

Situation update

• The U.S., Canada, UK, and Israel are the latest to advise their citizens to leave Russia due to deteriorating conditions and dwindling commercial flight options to leave.
• Those in Russia should leave the country now before transit options disappear or border controls are implemented. Commercial flight options are disappearing due to route closures, lack of insurance coverage, and suspension of Western parts and maintenance contracts. Russia's aviation sector may not survive sanctions, and private charter flight options are extremely limited. 
• Russia's security services have arrested thousands of anti-war or anti-government protesters amid a growing crackdown in the country.
• Russia's flagship airline Aeroflot has announced the suspension of all international flights starting on 08 March.
• Visa, Mastercard, KPMG, and PwC have all suspended operations in Russia. 

• The Kremlin released its demands of Ukraine in order to end hostilities. These include: 

  • Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent
  • Ceasing all military action
  • A change to Ukraine's constitution to enshrine neutrality (no EU, no NATO membership)
  • Acknowledgment of Crimea as Russian territory

Situation update

• Those in Russia should leave the country now before transit options disappear or border controls are implemented. Commercial flight options are disappearing due to route closures, lack of insurance coverage, and suspension of Western parts and maintenance contracts. Russia's aviation sector may not survive sanctions, and private charter flight options are extremely limited. 
• Russian airline S7 has announced the suspension of all international flights after one of its planes was seized by the leasing company that owns it while in Yerevan, Armenia. This risk could halt all international flights out of Russia. 
• President Putin has yet to comment on the rumors that the Russian state may institute martial law that are causing some Russians to flee the country. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the first official reaction, denying rumors as “hoaxes”.
• Russian legislation outlawing “public dissemination of false information about the use of the Russian military” could be in effect as soon as tomorrow, 05 March. The bill includes:
  • Imprisonment for sharing any information opposite the official Russian view of its offensive in Ukraine. Longer sentences are attached to information shared as part of the accused’s job duties and if authorities determine sharing it has “serious consequences”.
  • Fines for criticizing the Russian military.
  • Fines or forced labor for calling for sanctions against Russia.

• The list of popular websites accessible from Russia continues to shrink as Facebook, Twitter, BBC, and independent Russian press outlets are blocked.
• The Moscow Stock exchange will remain closed until at least 09 March. Russia’s largest exchange shut its doors on 28 February, making this its longest shutdown in the country’s history.

Situation update

• As the situation deteriorates and Russian forces continue to expand targets and ground control within Ukraine, freedom of movement is becoming more and more restricted. The window to leave Ukraine is closing. Anyone still in the country who wishes to leave needs to do so as soon as possible. 

Situation update

• Peace talks are underway at the Ukraine-Belarus border between representatives of Ukraine and Russia. These talks are unlikely to bear fruit. 

Situation update

Now on day two, Russia's blitzkrieg into Ukraine is continuing after meeting some resistance. It is clear that a regime change in Kyiv and the rapid destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are Moscow's immediate objectives.  

Situation update

Around 06:00 local time, Russia commenced a full-scale assault against Ukraine, involving air and missile strikes, as well as a ground invasion from the north, south, and east. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the goal of the operation was to “demilitarize” and "de-nazify" Ukraine. Ukraine has declared martial law and called on its citizens to resist.   

Situation update

On Monday, President Putin formally recognized the independence of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) in eastern Ukraine and deployed the Russian military on a "peacekeeping" mission to secure the separatist-controlled territory. The conflict has entered a new phase as the status quo has been changed. Ukraine is on high alert for any further incursion by Russian troops.

Situation update

Russian pretexts for active military involvement are taking shape as the conflict heats up in the Donbas and civilians in the separatist territory are ordered to evacuate to Russia. Russia formally responded to the U.S. diplomatic proposals by threatening "military-technical measures" should its demands not be met.

Situation update

Despite the conflicting reports of a partial Russian withdrawal, tensions have risen over the past several days. A resolution to the situation remains elusive as the Kremlin puts out mixed signals regarding its intentions.