Tensions in the Middle East remain high amid recent incidents in the region, and any number of triggers could lead to conflict involving Lebanon, Israel, Iran, and the U.S and their proxies. The possible renegotiation of the abandoned nuclear deal sits at the center of the situation, and all eyes are now turned to the key players to see how it plays out.

SITUATION REPORT

Two key deadlines loom large as conflicting reports emerge over the diplomatic progress concerning Iran’s nuclear program. If a compromise between the U.S. and Iran is not reached by 21 May, Iran has threatened to erase the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) monitoring footage of its nuclear activities, possibly upending negotiations. The second upcoming date is 18 June, where hardliners are expected to win Iran’s presidential elections and gain control over the nation’s diplomatic endeavors.

As the clock ticks on the diplomatic track, regional tensions remain high following several significant geopolitical incidents in April. These include a sabotage event at Iran’s primary nuclear facility, the mysterious death of a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander, the U.S. navy firing warning shots at an IRCC ship in the Gulf (for the first time in four years), and alarms sounding at Israel’s nuclear reactor. Against the backdrop of recent diplomatic initiatives and geopolitical incidents, the region is on edge awaiting what comes next.

SITUATION REPORT

While the global battle against coronavirus continues, some countries are making progress while others are still experiencing high rates of transmission. India in particular is in the midst of a COVID-19 crisis. Official case counts routinely exceed 300,000/day, and the government reports nearly 3,000 deaths per day. Both of these statistics are significant undercounts, with some estimates putting these metrics at 2-5x official counts. The healthcare system is overwhelmed, with critical shortages of oxygen and hospital beds. There are reports of people are dying from COVID-19 while in line outside hospitals and clinics.

In an effort to support Global Guardian clients we are actively: 

• Coordinating both medical and security evacuations 
• Helping coordinate tele-medicine from the US and in India 
• Sourcing oxygen concentrators 

Standing by to Support

As the situation unfolds, Global Guardian is actively supporting clients with their security needs. If you are in need of support please contact Global Guardian’s 24/7 Operations by clicking below or calling + 1 (703) 566-9463.

SITUATION REPORT

A calculated or unintentional return to sustained hostilities looms as Moscow and Kyiv sabre-rattle over eastern Ukraine. After Russian troops failed to leave the Russia-Ukraine border region following the completion of training exercises on 23 March, U.S. European Command elevated its watch level to “potential imminent crisis,” its highest threat level.

 On 26 March, four Ukrainian soldiers were killed near the separatists' de facto capital of Donetsk, marking the most intense fighting in recent months, with cease-fire monitors reporting more extensive artillery and more advanced weaponry being used. Russian-aligned separatists and Ukrainian forces have been engaged in low-intensity conflict since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. The U.S. estimates that there are currently approximately 80,000 Russian troops amassed in Crimea and around Ukraine, nearly double Russia’s force posture in early March. The recent Russian military buildup has sparked fears that the frozen conflict on Europe’s eastern flank is heating up.

SITUATION REPORT

The trial of Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis police officer charged with killing George Floyd, wrapped up this week. The jury has reached a verdict and it will be announced today between 1630 and 1700 EST. 

Protests, counter-protests, unrest, and rioting are possible after the verdict is announced, regardless if he is found guilty or not guilty on any, all, or none of the charges.

Protests in response to Floyd's killing over the summer of 2020 lead to widespread unrest and riots in major cities. Similar unrest is possible in the wake of the trial verdict, especially in Minneapolis and other cities that saw significant upheaval in the summer of 2020, including Chicago and Atlanta.

SITUATION REPORT

While violent crime in the U.S. has been on the rise since 2014, the precipitous spike in 2020 is completely unprecedented. The year 2020 was by no means a normal year. But is the elevated level of violent crime here to stay? To address whether or not last year was an anomaly or an inflection point, it is important to reflect on the causes of the surge in violent crime. 

BREAKING DOWN THE 2020 CRIME SURGE

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics both report that violent crime increased in 2020. Indeed, if the FBI’s preliminary data for 2020 holds (the conclusive report will be issued in September), then the U.S. recorded more than 20,000 murders in 2020(6.22 homicides per 100,000 people), the highest total since 1995 (8.22 homicides per 100,000 people). Alarmingly, this represents the largest yearly increase of homicides on record with estimates ranging from a 25 to 30 percent increase over 2019 levels. According to these data, aggravated assaults also increased by 10.5 percent. Meanwhile, with the exception of motor vehicle theft – which rose by 13 percent – non-violent crime fell significantly in 2020. Similarly, public mass shootings were effectively paused by the pandemic. This pause was broken in March 2021, as the country began loosening restrictions, with a mass shooting in Atlanta and continued through April with mass shootings in Boulder and Indianapolis.

SITUATION REPORT

Protests, looting, and rioting occurred in the Twin Cities area in the aftermath of the 11 April fatal police shooting of 20-year-old Daunte Wright in Brooklyn Center, MN. Wright was pulled over for having an expired registration on his vehicle and was then discovered to have an outstanding warrant. He was shot in the ensuing altercation and an investigation is ongoing. The Twin Cities area was already on edge due to the ongoing trial of Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis PD officer accused of killing George Floyd in May 2020.