Lviv

• A Russian cruise missile strike destroyed an aircraft repair plant in Lviv. The strike raises concerns over Lviv's relative safety and underscores Russia's commitment to degrading Ukraine's military and civilian industrial base. 
• In an interview with Russian news organization RT on 18 March, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that NATO weapons transfers will be treated as targets. This could increase threats against Lviv, which has served as a main transfer point for foreign military assistance.

Kyiv

• Around Kyiv, Russian advancements from the west and northwest remain stalled. Russian artillery continues to target population centers in and around Kyiv.

Kharkiv

• Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv, but have not launched any major assaults on the city. To the south of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks to bypass Izyum on 16-17 March after failing to take the town through frontal assaults.

Mariupol, Kherson & Odesa

• Mariupol remains under brutal siege as Russian forces target civilian infrastructure.
• Near Kherson, Russian forces continue to reinforce existing positions as part of a larger operation to defend the city—the only large city under Russian control—and its airbase. 
• In Odesa, Russian forces appear unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious assault as elements of Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were deployed to Mariupol on 16 March after being held in reserve.

RU-UA Negotiations

• Ukraine has reportedly called for Turkey and Germany to act as guarantors of any Russian ceasefire deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky may be seeking to stall negotiations for a better deal as Ukrainian forces successfully extend the Russian assault far beyond its allotted resources and Western sanctions take effect.

Russia: Putin Sets Sights Within

• In a meeting held on 16 March, Putin warned that the real threat to Russia is a “fifth column” of “traitors” who believe Western information on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin’s statements of a “purification of society” may precede legislative action further tightening restrictions on civil society. Exit bans have anecdotally been reported, along with intensive questioning of Russian citizens attempting to leave the country. 
• On 17 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was reportedly halfway to China before his plane reversed course and returned to Moscow. Both Russia and China have denied the event which may signal a diminishing of support for Russia’s war in Ukraine from China.

On the World Stage

• Slovakia has pledged to send Ukraine S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles if NATO provides a “proper replacement”. The air defense systems would replace the few possessed by Ukraine at the start of the war and allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian warplanes at an increased distance.
• In turn, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that the transfer of S-300s by NATO to Ukraine would "create problems" for the donor countries. 
• Uzbekistan, traditionally a Russian ally, has broken with Russian recognition of the conflict and called for an end to the war in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s inability to wrest an immediate victory in the war has even its long-time allies concerned.

• Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been promising according to both sides, but an agreement remains out of reach. Ukrainian President Zelensky said terms have become more realistic, but “time is still needed for the decisions to be in Ukraine’s interests”.
• Zelensky addressed the U.S. Congress again the morning of 16 March to call for support, after which President Biden announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine. Funds will supply Ukraine with additional anti-armor and air-defense weapons, bringing total U.S. assistance to Ukraine over the past week to $1 billion.
• On 15 March, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia made a joint visit to Kyiv, traveling into the warzone to meet with President Zelensky. The EU and NATO leaders returned to Poland the next day, hoping to draw more support to Ukraine in the war and its ambitions for EU membership.
• Two journalists working for Fox News were killed outside Kyiv on 15 March after their vehicle came under fire. The attack follows the death of another journalist outside Kyiv on 13 March, underscoring the danger of traveling in the warzone where army positions are fluid, and the front line is difficult to identify.
• Ukrainian intelligence stated on 15 March that Russia is redeploying forces from the east, Georgia, and Armenia. Authorities believe Russia will use these forces to hold captured territory for a renewed offensive in stalled battlegrounds such as Kyiv.
• Belarus' Lukashenko reiterated that Belarussian forces would not engage in Ukraine.
• President Zelensky extended martial law for an additional 30 days from 26 March. Martial law will allow authorities to impose curfews and restrict entry into and exit out areas.

GLOBAL GUARDIAN RESPONSE UPDATE

Since the onset of Russian's invasion of Ukraine, Global Guardian has evacuated clients and their families from over 15 locations across the region, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. As the situation deteriorates and Russian forces continue their advances, the risks associated with targeted cities has evolved to where evacuation is no longer tenable.

Below is an update on our current response capabilities as of Monday, March 14, 2022. Should you have any questions on how our team can support or would like to request custom intel reports, please contact our team at +1 (703) 566-9463 or email us here. 

• Russian Direct Threat - Russian forces continue to advance in and around the following cities and Global Guardian will NOT execute missions there moving forward, unless the threat decreases or approved with exception by Global Guardian's CEO:
  • Kyiv
  • Poltava
  • Kharkiv
  • Slvyansk
  • Donetsk
  • Zaporizhzhia
  • Mykolaiv
  • Vonesensk
• Accessible Cities (for now) - Cities still functional and accessible but under threat in the near future:
  • Odessa - could fall to a Russian amphibious assault at anytime
  • Dnipro - increasingly under air and missile attack
  • Kremenchuk
  • Cherkasy
  • Kropyvnytskyi
  • Bila Tserkva
  • Vinnytsia
  • Khmeinytskyi
  • Lviv
  • Ivano Frankivsk
  • Ternopil
  • Lutsk
  • Rivne
  • Sherpetivka
• Increased Risk & Cost
  • All evacuations moving forward will be considered HIGH to EXTREME RISK based on the increased threat.
  • Evacuation Teams will NOW consist of only ARMED AGENTS with FULL TACTICAL EQUIPMENT and potentially ARMORED VEHICLES and additional time will be required in planning to assess the threat.
  • Cost will potentially increase for assets depending on the requirement.

SITUATION UPDATE

• Over the weekend, Russian forces increased strikes in Western Ukraine. Ukrainian airfields have been targeted and the Yavoriv International Centre for Peacekeeping and Security—a training center and key waypoint for western arms—was struck on 13 March, killing 35 Ukrainians. The attack was meant to signal that no part of Ukraine is safe from Russian missiles and that NATO weapons transfers will be targeted once they reach Ukrainian soil.
• The last few days have seen very limited Russian advances as Russian forces have effectively paused most of their offensives as they regroup. Most of Russia's military gains have been in the Donbas and in the southern oblast of Mykolaiv.  
• Russia is drawing down its international deployments in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and pulling troops from its far east to reinforce its operations in Ukraine. Other reports indicate that Russia has opened recruitment centers in Syria and Libya.
• Western leaders have issued warnings—falling short of red lines—to Russia about potential chemical weapons usage. On Friday, President Biden said that there would be a "severe price" for Russia, while Polish President Duda warned on Sunday that weapons of mass destruction would be a “game-changer” for NATO.
• President Putin has begun to purge military and intelligence personnel. Sergey Beseda, head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) foreign intelligence branch was reportedly arrested along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh. This high-level arrest follows other reports that Putin has replaced over eight generals and several other key figures in the FSB’s Ukraine branch over significant operational failures.
• According to U.S. officials, Russia has asked China for military equipment and economic assistance. This report was leaked as Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, meets with a Chinese counterpart in Rome on 14 March. 
  
  

Situation update

• Kazakhstan's flagship carrier Air Astana and Turkey's Pegasus Airlines both suspended flights to and from Russia due to risks from conflict and lack of insurance coverage. 
• Goldman Sachs became the first major U.S. bank to announce it would close its operations in Russia with a similar announcement from JPMorgan Chase & Co following not far behind. 
• Russia has banned exports to “unfriendly” countries across several sectors until the end of 2022 in response to Western sanctions, including: agriculture, electrical, forestry, medical, tech equipment, and telecommunications.
  
  
  • Russia also banned exports of cars, airplanes, and drones as foreign companies attempt to recover $10 billion of leased aircraft from Russian airlines.
  • Additionally, wheat, meslin, rye, barley, corn, and some sugar exports to the Eurasian Economic Union have been banned until August 2022 as Russia tries to ensure its home market has enough food amid disruptions from sanctions.
• President Putin announced that Russia would recruit its own “volunteers” in response to Ukraine’s foreign legion. Third-party groups will allow the Kremlin to distance itself from civilian deaths as fighting further intensifies in Ukraine. Up to 16,000 Syrian troops have reportedly been recruited to fight.
• Ukraine's Air Force Command reports that Russian aircraft entered Ukrainian air space before turning around and flying toward Belarus where they fired missiles at the Belarussian border town of Kopani. Ukraine's Internal Ministry claims this is a false-flag operation carried out by Russia to provide pretext for Belarus to join the conflict.
• The U.S. has warned that Russia may carry out an attack targeting nuclear power plants, or using chemical or biological weapons in order to accuse Ukraine of a false-flag operation.
• Unconfirmed allegations from Defense Intelligence of Ukraine claim that Russian forces are gathering bodies of slain Ukrainian soldiers to plant at Chernobyl as "saboteurs", in order to blame a catastrophe on Ukraine as a false-flag operation.  
  
  

Situation update

• Russia’s Legislative Commission has approved a bill that will allow the state to seize organizations owned 25% or more by foreign entities from “unfriendly” countries if they do not resume normal operations. Over the past week, the Russian labor force has faced a flood of unemployment as major foreign businesses close shop in Russia.
• Starbucks, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are among the latest major business to stop operations in Russia. 
• Russian Central Bank officials announced that sale of foreign currencies to citizens is suspended at all banks until at least 09 September, due to international sanctions. For withdrawals of over USD10,000, the balance must be made using roubles instead of dollars.
• The Russian Duma has approved amendments that will allow the creation of a unified register of individuals that have been declared “foreign agents.” The Russian government currently maintains a similar register for business entities, which allows for systemic discrimination of affected persons in Russia.
• President Biden signed an executive order on 08 March to ban new investments on Russian oil, liquified natural gas, and coal imports to the U.S. Gas prices have risen to an all-time high stateside as refiners cut back on contracts with Russia.
• The EU enacted a never-before-used temporary protection scheme, allowing Ukrainian nationals who flee war to be granted permission to live and work in EU member states for up to three years.
• Russian forces appear to have made progress south toward Kyiv's western flank. Despite heavy losses of both soldiers and equipment, Russia's army continues to make slow but steady territorial gains in Ukraine. 
• Over the last several days, there has been a reported softening of negotiating positions on both sides. Ukraine is reportedly open to "neutrality" and to back away from its NATO bid. In addition, Ukrainian President Zelensky has sent out conflicting signals regarding his willingness to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Meanwhile, Russia has signaled it may be able to live next to a (mostly) sovereign Ukraine if the Donbas is demilitarized. Ultimately, it remains unclear if a peace deal is likely in the near-term. 

Situation update

• The U.S., Canada, UK, and Israel are the latest to advise their citizens to leave Russia due to deteriorating conditions and dwindling commercial flight options to leave.
• Those in Russia should leave the country now before transit options disappear or border controls are implemented. Commercial flight options are disappearing due to route closures, lack of insurance coverage, and suspension of Western parts and maintenance contracts. Russia's aviation sector may not survive sanctions, and private charter flight options are extremely limited. 
• Russia's security services have arrested thousands of anti-war or anti-government protesters amid a growing crackdown in the country.
• Russia's flagship airline Aeroflot has announced the suspension of all international flights starting on 08 March.
• Visa, Mastercard, KPMG, and PwC have all suspended operations in Russia. 

• The Kremlin released its demands of Ukraine in order to end hostilities. These include: 

  • Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent
  • Ceasing all military action
  • A change to Ukraine's constitution to enshrine neutrality (no EU, no NATO membership)
  • Acknowledgment of Crimea as Russian territory

Situation update

• Those in Russia should leave the country now before transit options disappear or border controls are implemented. Commercial flight options are disappearing due to route closures, lack of insurance coverage, and suspension of Western parts and maintenance contracts. Russia's aviation sector may not survive sanctions, and private charter flight options are extremely limited. 
• Russian airline S7 has announced the suspension of all international flights after one of its planes was seized by the leasing company that owns it while in Yerevan, Armenia. This risk could halt all international flights out of Russia. 
• President Putin has yet to comment on the rumors that the Russian state may institute martial law that are causing some Russians to flee the country. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the first official reaction, denying rumors as “hoaxes”.
• Russian legislation outlawing “public dissemination of false information about the use of the Russian military” could be in effect as soon as tomorrow, 05 March. The bill includes:
  • Imprisonment for sharing any information opposite the official Russian view of its offensive in Ukraine. Longer sentences are attached to information shared as part of the accused’s job duties and if authorities determine sharing it has “serious consequences”.
  • Fines for criticizing the Russian military.
  • Fines or forced labor for calling for sanctions against Russia.

• The list of popular websites accessible from Russia continues to shrink as Facebook, Twitter, BBC, and independent Russian press outlets are blocked.
• The Moscow Stock exchange will remain closed until at least 09 March. Russia’s largest exchange shut its doors on 28 February, making this its longest shutdown in the country’s history.

Situation update

• As the situation deteriorates and Russian forces continue to expand targets and ground control within Ukraine, freedom of movement is becoming more and more restricted. The window to leave Ukraine is closing. Anyone still in the country who wishes to leave needs to do so as soon as possible. 

Situation update

• Peace talks are underway at the Ukraine-Belarus border between representatives of Ukraine and Russia. These talks are unlikely to bear fruit. 

Situation update

Now on day two, Russia's blitzkrieg into Ukraine is continuing after meeting some resistance. It is clear that a regime change in Kyiv and the rapid destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are Moscow's immediate objectives.