Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader on 08 March after the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, at the start of the conflict. Mojtaba is seen as a hardliner who is unlikely to negotiate with the U.S. He had previously served in Iran's armed forces and fought in the Iran–Iraq war. Israel's defense minister said last week that whoever was chosen as Ali Khamenei's successor would be "an unequivocal target for elimination." U.S. President Donald Trump said that anyone selected to lead Iran without their approval would "not last long."

In an apparent escalation of targets, Iran accused the U.S. of striking Iran's freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, 07 March. Iran retaliated in kind by causing "material damage" to one of Bahrain's desalination plants the following day. Targeting of such critical infrastructure could endanger every resident in impacted areas and increases the chance of Gulf states officially entering the conflict against Iran.

On 08 March, the U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and family from Saudi Arabia, indicating it anticipates further targeting. It also ordered the departure of non-emergency staff and family from the U.S. Consulate in Adana, Turkey, and urged citizens in southeastern Turkey to leave amid increased threat from Iran. Incirlik Air Base is near Adana and is a major joint U.S.–Turkish base. This comes after Turkey announced it would deploy six F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems to Turkish-administered Northern Cyprus.

Conflicting statements and denials of attacks out of Iran indicate their Command and Control (C2) structure remains disrupted, with IRGC commanders and missile and drone outposts operating off a pre-determined targeting program, and not with direct approval from current leadership.

The U.S., UK, France, Germany, Canada, and other countries are ramping up their evacuation operations and preparations in the region but continue to deal with disruptions. An Air France plane heading to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to pick up stranded French citizens was forced to turn back amid Iranian missile fire. The U.S. claims to have moved nearly 20,000 people out of the region. The UK, France, and Germany are preparing to possibly evacuate 100,000, 400,000, and 30,000 citizens, respectively.

Airspace remains closed in much of the region; however, commercial flights out of the UAE are gradually coming back online as the country operates a reduced flight schedule, with departures occurring only when deemed safe amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks. In the past 24 hours, approximately 400 commercial flights (previously cancelled services and repatriation flights) have taken place.

Separately, energy prices are elevated as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs and the CEO of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, said in an interview with the Financial Times that crude oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel within the next two to three weeks if the current regional conflict persists.

The conflict continues to expand horizontally as two Iranian drones struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. According to local officials, one drone hit a terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport (NAJ), about 6 miles from the Iranian border, while another landed near a school in a nearby village, with the injured reported in stable condition. Azerbaijan's President Aliyev says his country will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, though this incident comes after Azerbaijan canceled military leave and deployed troops to the border.

Meanwhile, the Israel–Lebanon front is expanding. Hezbollah has increased the volume and pace of its attacks on Israel, especially in the north. Israel is advancing in southern Lebanon, and the first direct ground clashes were reported on 04 March.

Energy remains the focal point of the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (90% reduction in transit), supply storage is nearing capacity in Iraq. In approximately one week, if present conditions continue, Iraq will need to halt oil production. Two more tankers were attacked over the last 24 hours off the coast of Iraq and Oman. Qatar is fully shutting down their liquid natural gas operations. It’s estimated that it would take about two weeks to restart operations, and at least two more weeks to return to full capacity.

Open-source trackers estimate steeply declining launch numbers of ballistic missiles targeting the Gulf states and Israel. Day one of the conflict saw Iran launch some 350 missiles with declining barrages since then. Day two: 175; day three: 120; day four: 50. This is likely due to significant destruction of mobile launchers by the U.S. and Israel and Iran "rationing" their missile stockpile in anticipation of an extended conflict. Drone attacks remain consistent; however, Gulf states continue to intercept the majority of both drones and missiles.

Israel struck the meeting of 88 members of the Supreme Council who were gathering in Qom to decide the next Supreme Leader. As such, no official decision was reached or declared by Iran, though rumors persist that the son of the late Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, was not killed in strikes and is slated to become the next Supreme Leader. This has only been reported by Israeli media and Iranian opposition groups, with no confirmation from Iran itself.

President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide risk insurance and guarantees for shippers and shipping insurance companies to continue moving in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy will escort tankers through the Strait and provide protection.

While Iran continues to attack the Gulf states and Israel, it has increased focus on Iraq and the Kurdish regions after reports emerged that the U.S. CIA has been arming and preparing Kurdish militia for possible ground conflict against the regime. The IRGC claims ground forces entered Iraqi Kurdistan with 200+ drones. While Iranian drone strikes have targeted Kurdish militia around Erbil, there has been no confirmation of Iranian troops in Iraqi Kurdistan. Erbil airport and the U.S. airbase there continue to come under drone attack.

Iran continued to target oil and gas, shipping, and aviation infrastructure in the region primarily with Shahed drones but also ballistic missiles. The Gulf states have intercepted hundreds of projectiles over the past 24 hours, however, some slipped through, causing damage to ports, U.S. embassies, tankers, and energy infrastructure. This has caused closures or suspension of operations at multiple ports and petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Qatar. The airport and U.S. airbase in Erbil, Iraq came under heavy air attack. It remains open but effectively non-operational for commercial traffic.

President Trump outlined four war goals: destroy missiles, annihilate the navy, block nukes, and stop proxy funding. He announced the conflict could go on for four to five weeks and that the U.S. had yet to launch its biggest wave of attacks targeting Iran. At least 17 fuel tanker aircraft left the U.S. headed for the Middle East in the last 24 hours. President Trump did not rule out boots on the ground.

The IRGC now claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed (it had been effectively closed) and threatened any vessels trying to transit. Multiple tankers have been hit both in the Strait and docked at ports, including a U.S. flagged fuel tanker at a port in Bahrain enrolled in the U.S. Navy's Tanker Security Program, a fleet of commercial ships that can supply fuel to the Navy during conflict.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson issued a message on X urging American citizens to leave 14 countries in the region while commercial means remain available. This did not translate into Level 4: Do Not Travel warnings for all of the countries, some of which were already at Level 4. The U.S. embassies in Bahrain and Iraq issued evacuation orders for non-emergency staff and their families.

Iran took another step up the escalation ladder by targeting energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia. Qatar suspended LNG production at its North Field, while multiple ports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Oman halted operations.

Further west, Iranian drones impacted the UKs RAF Akrotiri base on the island of Cyprus. The UK confirmed minor damage to the runway. Additional drone threats prompted evacuations at Paphos International Airport (PFO) and the Akrotiri district. The UK and Greece sent military reinforcements.

Iran's primary proxy group, Hezbollah, entered the conflict by launching missiles and drone swarms at Israel's military base near Haifa. Israel responded by launching a large air campaign in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership and assets. Israel issued evacuation orders for more than 50 villages in southern Lebanon. Israel warned that this campaign will last several days.

In Pakistan, thousands of largely Shia, pro‑Iran demonstrators marched on the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, breaching the outer gate and attempting to storm the compound. Security forces (consulate guards and police) used tear gas, rubber bullets, and live fire. Reported fatalities in Karachi range from about 10 to at least 23 killed, with 50–60+ injured. Other protests were reported in Gilgit-Baltistan, Islamabad, and Lahore.

Israel and the United States continued to strike hundreds of targets in Iran with heavy strikes reported across Tehran. Israeli officials claim to have destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles and around 200 ballistic missile launchers as the U.S. continued to strike Iranian naval targets. President Trump said the bombing would continue "throughout the week or as long as necessary.”  

On the diplomatic front, President Trump told The Atlantic that Iran wants to resume negotiations with the U.S. after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them.” Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, told his Omani counterpart in a phone call that Tehran is open to any serious efforts at de-escalation. While these channels are open, it is unclear who in Iran has the authority to make an agreement. Meanwhile, the UAE has closed its embassy in Iran and withdrew its ambassador and all diplomats in response to the regime’s ongoing missile and drone attacks targeting the UAE. 

Overnight, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened early Sunday morning to hit Iran with unprecedented force after Tehran warned it would step up attacks in retaliation for the killing of its supreme leader. Iranian President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi from the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, will temporarily govern the country. It is still unclear who will replace the Supreme Leader, though it is likely that a successor has been appointed in secret. 

Death tolls are rising across the GCC and Israel with at least three in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one in Kuwait, and 11 in Israel, following continuous missile/drone strikes in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Israel. Iran claims to now have struck 27 U.S. bases across the region. While delivering rhetorical support, Iran's regional proxies have yet to fully activate. 

Iran will continue to target key traveler-focused assets in the Gulf region such as luxury hotels, airports, and oil & gas commercial compounds should they choose to escalate.

 Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Lion's Roar by Israel, Iran retaliated across the region by launching medium and short-range ballistic missiles and Shahed drones at U.S. bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain. Most projectiles were intercepted. There were multiple instances of falling debris from intercepted missiles striking buildings, landing on people, and catching buildings on fire. In Bahrain, a high-rise building was struck by a Shahed drone, possibly by accident or due to signal jamming. A similar incident happened in Dubai when the parking/entrance area of the Palm Hotel was hit by a Shahed drone, leading to multiple injuries but no fatalities. These types of attacks will continue across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. 

 President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during earlier strikes. This has not been confirmed by Iran, but there has been no visual or audio evidence produced by Iran that he is still alive. Additional reports suggest members of his family were also killed. It is likely that Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is now in charge.  

During mid-morning hours local time on 28 February 2026, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes against Iran. President Trump then confirmed U.S. involvement in “major combat operations,” which are ongoing. Based on commentary from both Israel and the U.S., this is going to be a sustained military campaign targeting Iranian military and political leadership, military-industrial assets, and wide-ranging military targets—including nuclear sites—across Iran, with the goal of destroying command and control structures, degrading offensive and defensive capabilities, and ultimately bringing about regime change. Multiple U.S. embassies have issued shelter-in-place warnings while most of the region has closed airspace. Airlines have cancelled flights in response. Iran vowed a "crushing response" in retaliation and has targeted military bases in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

• Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders.
• If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
• Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.