Open-source trackers estimate steeply declining launch numbers of ballistic missiles targeting the Gulf states and Israel. Day one of the conflict saw Iran launch some 350 missiles with declining barrages since then. Day two: 175; day three: 120; day four: 50. This is likely due to significant destruction of mobile launchers by the U.S. and Israel and Iran "rationing" their missile stockpile in anticipation of an extended conflict. Drone attacks remain consistent; however, Gulf states continue to intercept the majority of both drones and missiles.
Israel struck the meeting of 88 members of the Supreme Council who were gathering in Qom to decide the next Supreme Leader. As such, no official decision was reached or declared by Iran, though rumors persist that the son of the late Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, was not killed in strikes and is slated to become the next Supreme Leader. This has only been reported by Israeli media and Iranian opposition groups, with no confirmation from Iran itself.
President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide risk insurance and guarantees for shippers and shipping insurance companies to continue moving in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy will escort tankers through the Strait and provide protection.
While Iran continues to attack the Gulf states and Israel, it has increased focus on Iraq and the Kurdish regions after reports emerged that the U.S. CIA has been arming and preparing Kurdish militia for possible ground conflict against the regime. The IRGC claims ground forces entered Iraqi Kurdistan with 200+ drones. While Iranian drone strikes have targeted Kurdish militia around Erbil, there has been no confirmation of Iranian troops in Iraqi Kurdistan. Erbil airport and the U.S. airbase there continue to come under drone attack.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- As the conflict may go on for four to five weeks, conditions could deteriorate in impacted areas due to supply chain and power disruptions should Iran target power plants and desalinization plants.
- Visitors should continue to try to leave the region. Residents should consider the possibility of deteriorating conditions and plan accordingly, whether that is stocking up on food and water or leaving the region depending on personal risk tolerance.
- Continue to abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Sheltering in lower floors, away from glass, and in underground parking is preferred.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
- Avoid proximity to U.S. (and Israeli) diplomatic missions in Europe and the Middle East.
SITUATION REPORT
- Bahrain has called in Saudi security forces to help quell anti-government violence. Bahrain is majority Shia ruled by a Sunni family.
- A U.S. submarine reportedly hit an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka. Hundreds are missing or injured according to Sri Lankan government reports.
- A drone strike hit the U.S. consulate in Dubai, causing a fire that was quickly extinguished and causing no casualties.
- The Houthis issued a threat that a Saudi attack on Iran would result in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
- Iraq has fully suspended production at the Rumaila oilfield, the second largest in the world after export disruptions filled storage to capacity.
- U.S. CENTCOM briefing indicated that the U.S. had so far struck 2,000 targets, sunk 17 naval vessels, and degraded Iran's missile launcher capability. Israel claims to have taken out 300 missile launchers in Iran.
- Multiple news outlets, including Bloomberg, have reported that several Gulf states are running low on interceptor munitions. These countries denied said reporting and maintained that stockpiles are robust.
- Turkey reported that NATO air defenses shot down an Iranian missile heading toward its airspace.
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Saudi, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Omani airspace remain open for the time being but are subject to change. Jordanian airspace will close during evening and overnight hours.
- The UAE will continue to operate a limited number of repatriation and cargo flights as conditions allow. Airspace remains closed until at least midnight local time on 07 March and is likely to be extended.
- Israel is opening airspace in a restricted manner for incoming repatriation flights only into Tel Aviv starting tonight.
- Regional U.S. Embassy Updates:
- Pakistan: State department has ordered departure of non-emergency staff from Lahore and Karachi amid unrest.
- Saudi Arabia: Raised to Level 3 - authorized (not ordered) departure of non-emergency staff and family.
- Kuwait: Raised to Level 3 - ordered departure of non-emergency staff and family.
- UAE: Raised to Level 3 - ordered departure of non-emergency staff and family.
- Cyprus: Raised to Level 3 - authorized (not ordered) departure of non-emergency staff and family.
- Oman: Raised to Level 3 - authorized (not ordered) departure of non-emergency staff and family.
Forecast
- Iran will continue to hit oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf in order to exert additional pressure on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S.
- Next likely targets include power plants, substations, transmission lines, and desalination plants in the Gulf states. Taking these out will deteriorate living conditions across the region, placing additional pressure on governments that, in turn, will pressure the U.S.
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