As of 27 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst a continued U.S. military buildup in the region, as yet unsuccessful negotiations, and other indicators and warnings suggesting imminent strikes. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following:

• Avoid non-essential travel to Israel. Consider leaving Israel while commercial flight options remain available.
• Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
• Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.

As of 26 February 2026, the situation in Mexico has stabilized. Late on 24 February, the state government of Jalisco lifted the "Code Red", reopening public transportation, the municipal government, and schools across the state. In Puerto Vallarta, commercial flights resumed in earnest. At the same time, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico lifted its shelter-in-place order but maintained a curfew for government staff in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzmán (Jalisco), and Tijuana (Baja California). This curfew was lifted late on 25 February.

The Mexican government has deployed thousands of troops and federal officers to impacted areas to shore up security, dissuade violence, and bring peace of mind to the residents and visitors to those communities. In Quintana Roo, the governor deployed some 10,000 personnel, highlighting the seriousness of maintaining security in tourist areas which are vital to the Mexican economy.

On 22 February 2026, Mexican military and law enforcement agents undertook an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco to capture (or kill) Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and the most wanted man in both Mexico and the U.S. He was the head of the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico. El Mencho, along with several other key leaders within the CJNG, were killed or captured in the operation, which was supported by U.S. intelligence. 

Following the operation were widespread shootouts and cartel blockades across multiple states in Mexico, starting in Jalisco and radiating outward as the news spread. Criminal actors hijacked and burned vehicles, attacked gas stations and small businesses, deployed tire spikes on roadways, and engaged security forces in multiple armed confrontations. Multiple airlines cancelled flights into Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and Mazatlán out of an abundance of caution. While the violence began in Jalisco state, there were over 250 confirmed blockades in 22 states. Authorities indicated nearly all roadblocks were cleared as of early morning hours on 23 February. 

Municipal governments and schools in multiple states were closed on Monday, 23 February, amid ongoing concerns of violence. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued multiple alerts to U.S. citizens to shelter-in-place. Thelatest alertestablishes remote-work and shelter-in-place orders for U.S. government personnel for 23 February in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzman (Jalisco), Cancun (Quintana Roo), Playa del Carmen (Quintana Roo), Cozumel (Quintana Roo), Reynosa (Tamaulipas state), and Tijuana (Baja California). 

Large-scale disruptions are a common retaliatory tactic used by criminal groups after high-level arrests or leadership targeting. The intent is to create operational chaos, slow security force deployments, and pressure authorities regarding detained figures. A similarly disruptive but more localized version of this happened in Culiacan, Sinaloa in 2019 during an attempted arrest of Ovidio Guzman, one of the sons of El Chapo. He was released from custody after more than 700 cartel gunmen laid siege to the jail where he was being held. 

As of 20 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst massive U.S. military buildup in the region, stalling negotiations, and increasingly concerning statements from American, European, and Iranian officials. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following: 

• Avoid non-essential travel to Israel.
• Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
• Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.

MEXICO | TAIWAN

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Middle East | Russia-Ukraine WaR

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Maduro’s Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president on 05 January. While Maduro has been removed, the regime remains intact for now. The U.S. believes they have a compliant leader in Rodríguez, who will act in a provisional capacity while the U.S. manages the transition to democracy, for which a timeline has not been proposed.

During early morning hours on 03 January 2026, the U.S. military conducted strikes on strategic military targets in and around Caracas and captured President Nicholas Maduro and his wife. According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, President Maduro is set to stand trial on criminal changes in the U.S., and that the U.S. strikes in and around Caracas were to "protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant." 

During afternoon hours local time on 14 December 2025, a father and son, 50-year-old Sajid Akram and 24-year-old Naveed Akram, carried out a mass shooting of a Hanukkah event on Bondi Beach, just outside Sydney. At least 16 people were killed and 40 more injured by the suspects who used legally owned firearms, including a bolt action rifle and pump shotgun. The father was shot and killed by police while the son was tackled and disarmed by a civilian. 

Russia-Ukraine | China-Japan

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.