Iran took another step up the escalation ladder by targeting energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia. Qatar suspended LNG production at its North Field, while multiple ports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Oman halted operations.
Further west, Iranian drones impacted the UKs RAF Akrotiri base on the island of Cyprus. The UK confirmed minor damage to the runway. Additional drone threats prompted evacuations at Paphos International Airport (PFO) and the Akrotiri district. The UK and Greece sent military reinforcements.
Iran's primary proxy group, Hezbollah, entered the conflict by launching missiles and drone swarms at Israel's military base near Haifa. Israel responded by launching a large air campaign in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership and assets. Israel issued evacuation orders for more than 50 villages in southern Lebanon. Israel warned that this campaign will last several days.
In Pakistan, thousands of largely Shia, pro‑Iran demonstrators marched on the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, breaching the outer gate and attempting to storm the compound. Security forces (consulate guards and police) used tear gas, rubber bullets, and live fire. Reported fatalities in Karachi range from about 10 to at least 23 killed, with 50–60+ injured. Other protests were reported in Gilgit-Baltistan, Islamabad, and Lahore.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- Continue to abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Sheltering in lower floors, away from glass, and in underground parking is preferred.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
- Avoid proximity to U.S. (and Israeli) diplomatic missions in Europe and the Middle East.
TACTICAL UPDATE
- U.S. CENTCOM announced that three fighter jets had been accidentally shot down by Kuwaiti air defense. All six crew were reported safe.
- U.S. CENTCOM announced an additional death, bringing the death toll to four soldiers since conflict began on 28 February.
- The U.S. Embassy in Iraq extended its shelter-in-place advisory saying Iran-aligned groups pose a terrorist threat to public safety.
- Debris from intercepted missiles and drones continue to cause injuries and damage across the region, including significant fires.
- The U.S. and Israel continue to hit targets across Iran, with more than 2,000 combined strikes reported since the start of the conflict.
SITUATION REPORT
- The world's second largest shipper, Maersk, announced it is halting transit in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz and will route all ships down the Cape of Good Hope around South Africa.
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Saudi, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Omani airspace remain open for the time being, though many cancellations are being reported in Oman. Jordanian airspace will close during evening and overnight hours.
- Several Etihad Airways flights departed Abu Dhabi airport today to various destinations, reportedly only for passengers stranded at the airport. These flights were not made public and airspace remains tentatively closed until at least 1400 local time on 03 March.
- Israel is reportedly opening airspace in a "controlled manner" later today.
- The land border crossing between the UAE and Oman remains open but subject to increased security, delays, and potential closure at any moment.
- Border crossings with Saudi Arabia remain open but subject to significant delays and extra scrutiny.
- Iran has shutdown internet access, and reporting out of the country remains sparse.
- Regional U.S. Embassy Warnings:
- Bahrain: shelter in place - raised to Level 3: Reconsider Travel
- Egypt: exercise increased caution
- Iran: shelter in place
- Iraq: do not travel, be prepared to shelter in place
- Israel: shelter in place
- Jordan: shelter in place, avoid U.S. Embassy area
- Kuwait: shelter in place - raised to Level 3: Reconsider Travel
- Lebanon: urges citizens in-county to depart while commercial options available; advises against travel to Lebanon
- Oman: advised to shelter-in-place
- Qatar: shelter in place - raised to Level 3: Reconsider Travel
- Saudi Arabia: shelter in place (Jeddah and Dhahran only); limit all other non-essential travel
- United Arab Emirates (UAE): shelter in place - raised to Level 3: Reconsider Travel
- Syria: plan to depart or shelter in place
ANALYSIS
- Iran will continue to hit oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf in order to exert additional pressure on GCC states and the U.S.
- Iran is methodically trying to deplete U.S., Israeli, and regional allies' interceptor stockpiles.
- There has been no indication that the people of Iran are rising up as instructed by President Trump; however, due to widespread internet blackouts in Iran there is almost no information making it out of the country.
- This conflict is likely to go on for weeks at current pace as Iran hunkers down. They have no reason to come to the negotiating table and know that inflicting as much economic and political pain on the U.S. and its allies will only help its negotiating position.
STANDING BY TO Support
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