The conflict continues to expand horizontally as two Iranian drones struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. According to local officials, one drone hit a terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport (NAJ), about 6 miles from the Iranian border, while another landed near a school in a nearby village, with the injured reported in stable condition. Azerbaijan's President Aliyev says his country will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, though this incident comes after Azerbaijan canceled military leave and deployed troops to the border.
Meanwhile, the Israel–Lebanon front is expanding. Hezbollah has increased the volume and pace of its attacks on Israel, especially in the north. Israel is advancing in southern Lebanon, and the first direct ground clashes were reported on 04 March.
Energy remains the focal point of the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (90% reduction in transit), supply storage is nearing capacity in Iraq. In approximately one week, if present conditions continue, Iraq will need to halt oil production. Two more tankers were attacked over the last 24 hours off the coast of Iraq and Oman. Qatar is fully shutting down their liquid natural gas operations. It’s estimated that it would take about two weeks to restart operations, and at least two more weeks to return to full capacity.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- As the conflict may go on for four to five weeks, conditions could deteriorate in impacted areas due to supply chain and power disruptions should Iran target power plants and desalinization plants.
- Visitors should continue to try to leave the region. Residents should consider the possibility of deteriorating conditions and plan accordingly, whether that is stocking up on food and water or leaving the region depending on personal risk tolerance.
- Continue to abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Sheltering in lower floors, away from glass, and in underground parking is preferred.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
- Avoid proximity to U.S. (and Israeli) diplomatic missions in Europe and the Middle East.
- For those considering evacuation, Global Guardian recommends checking visa requirements and applying for relevant visas as soon as possible.
SITUATION REPORT
- Iraq is undergoing a complete nationwide grid shutdown, with authorities attributing it to a sudden drop in gas supplies to the Rumaila gas power plant in the Basra Province. The power outage comes amid a series of strikes against Iran-aligned militias by U.S. and Israeli forces.
- The UAE remains the most targeted nation. So far, on 5 March it was targeted by six Iranian ballistic missiles and 131 drones.
- Italy is planning to send air defense aid to Gulf countries facing Iranian air strikes.
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Saudi, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Omani airspace remain open for the time being but are subject to change.
- The UAE is increasing the number of repatriation and cargo flights as conditions allow. Emirates confirmed it is operating a reduced flight schedule until further notice. Meanwhile, Etihad, flydubai and Air Arabia have suspended scheduled operations until 9 March.
- Israel's Home Front Command announced that nationwide gathering restrictions will be relaxed from 5-7 March. Under the relaxed measures, gatherings of up to 50 people are allowed and non-essential workers may return to their workplaces. Schools and public parks remain closed.
- Regional U.S. Embassy Updates:
- Iraq: Level 4 - ordered departure of non-essential employees.
Forecast
- Iran will continue to hit oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf in order to exert additional pressure on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S.
- Next likely targets include power plants, substations, transmission lines, and desalination plants in the Gulf states. Taking these out will deteriorate living conditions across the region, placing additional pressure on governments that, in turn, will pressure the U.S.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
