Iran continued to target oil and gas, shipping, and aviation infrastructure in the region primarily with Shahed drones but also ballistic missiles. The Gulf states have intercepted hundreds of projectiles over the past 24 hours, however, some slipped through, causing damage to ports, U.S. embassies, tankers, and energy infrastructure. This has caused closures or suspension of operations at multiple ports and petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Qatar. The airport and U.S. airbase in Erbil, Iraq came under heavy air attack. It remains open but effectively non-operational for commercial traffic.
President Trump outlined four war goals: destroy missiles, annihilate the navy, block nukes, and stop proxy funding. He announced the conflict could go on for four to five weeks and that the U.S. had yet to launch its biggest wave of attacks targeting Iran. At least 17 fuel tanker aircraft left the U.S. headed for the Middle East in the last 24 hours. President Trump did not rule out boots on the ground.
The IRGC now claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed (it had been effectively closed) and threatened any vessels trying to transit. Multiple tankers have been hit both in the Strait and docked at ports, including a U.S. flagged fuel tanker at a port in Bahrain enrolled in the U.S. Navy's Tanker Security Program, a fleet of commercial ships that can supply fuel to the Navy during conflict.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson issued a message on X urging American citizens to leave 14 countries in the region while commercial means remain available. This did not translate into Level 4: Do Not Travel warnings for all of the countries, some of which were already at Level 4. The U.S. embassies in Bahrain and Iraq issued evacuation orders for non-emergency staff and their families.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- As the conflict may go on for four to five weeks, conditions could deteriorate in impacted areas due to supply chain and power disruptions should Iran target power plants and desalinization plants.
- Visitors should continue to try to leave the region. Residents should consider the possibility of deteriorating conditions and plan accordingly whether that is stocking up on food and water or leaving the region depending on personal risk tolerance.
- Continue to abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Sheltering in lower floors, away from glass, and in underground parking is preferred.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
- Avoid proximity to U.S. (and Israeli) diplomatic missions in Europe and the Middle East.
SITUATION REPORT
- Greece has deployed a Patriot missile defense battery to Karpathos and frigates and F-16s to Cyprus.
- France announced that Rafale jets conducted airspace patrols over the UAE, specifically operating from Al-Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi.
- Qatar halted LNG production following a drone strike on the Ras Laffan complex. European natural gas prices have surged nearly 70% since the conflict began.
- A water tank at Mesaieed Power Plant in Qatar was hit by a drone.
- Saudi Arabia closed its Ras Tanura refinery complex following impact from either a direct strike or debris from an intercepted drone. This is Saudi Aramco's largest refinery.
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Saudi, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Omani airspace remain open for the time being but are subject to change. Jordanian airspace will close during evening and overnight hours.
- The UAE will continue to operate a limited number of repatriation and cargo flights as conditions allow. Airspace remains closed until at least midnight local time on 04 March, likely to be extended.
- Regional U.S. Embassy Updates:
- The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh was hit by a drone strike overnight but was empty at the time. The embassy is closed today.
- The U.S. Embassy in Kuwait announced it would be closed indefinitely.
- Bahrain: Non-emergency personnel and family ordered to depart. The embassy remains closed.
- Iraq: Non-emergency personnel and family ordered to depart. Shelter-in-place order issued on 02 March.
- Jordan: non-emergency personnel and family ordered to depart. The embassy was evacuated on 02 March due to an imminent threat.
- Lebanon: consular services suspended and all Americans urged to leave Lebanon while still able.
- Oman: shelter-in-place was lifted for all areas except Duqm and a 100 km radius around Salalah.
- UAE: all embassy and consulate appointments cancelled through 04 March.
Forecast
- Iran will continue to hit oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf in order to exert additional pressure on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S.
- Next likely targets include power plants, substations, transmission lines, and desalination plants in the Gulf states. Taking these out will deteriorate living conditions across the region, placing additional pressure on governments that, in turn, will pressure the U.S.
STANDING BY TO Support
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