Various news outlets have reported that the IRGC Navy has mined or is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to inflict maximum economic pain on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S. This reporting prompted President Trump to issue a warning to Iran to remove the mines immediately and if they “are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before." President Trump followed up by announcing multiple strikes on Iranian mine-laying vessels.
Iran has also escalated its targeting threats on two fronts. The first is on U.S. and Israeli economic centers and banks in the region in retaliation for a strike on an Iranian bank on 10 March. An IRGC-linked group warned residents in the region to stay at least 1 km away from these assets. The second is American tech firms ostensibly with ties to the U.S. government through contracts. An Al Jazeera report, citing Iran's Tasnim news agency, published a list of what it said was Iran's new targets, including offices tied to Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir in Israel and around the region, including in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. “With the expansion of the regional war into an infrastructure war, the scope of Iran’s legitimate targets gradually becomes broader,” the post reads.
While these threats should not be taken lightly, Iran has been consistently mixed in its messaging versus reality when it comes to strike targets. This is primarily due to a lack of command and control structure and communication between leadership and the military forces launching missiles and drones.
Separately, over the past five days, a cluster of terrorism incidents across the West has raised alarm about Iranian-linked blowback from the ongoing conflict:
- On 07 March, two men were arrested in New York after deploying an improvised explosive device at a protest.
- In the early hours of 09 March, a bomb exploded outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, and a separate blast hit the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway—both under investigation as potential terror acts.
- In Toronto on 10 March, two suspects fired multiple shots at the U.S. Consulate at 360 University Avenue, following three separate synagogue shootings in the Greater Toronto Area over the last two weekends.
- These incidents coincide with a surge of intelligence warnings issued over the same period. The U.S. intelligence community has circulated private bulletins to American companies and law enforcement urging vigilance against cyber and physical attacks, with DHS warning of a heightened threat environment following the killing of Khamenei, citing two senior Iranian religious leaders who issued separate Farsi-language fatwas calling for worldwide retaliation, and an IRGC warning.
- Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence officials are warning that intercepted encrypted transmissions from Iran may be an “operational trigger” for sleeper agents. While no specific, credible threat has been announced, the FBI has elevated its alert level nationwide, with authorities particularly focused on U.S. energy infrastructure, the financial sector, and defense contractors with ties to Israeli firms.
Forecast & Analysis
While the messaging around Operation Epic Fury has been inconsistent—both in the lead-up and in the operational phase—the primary objectives appear to be the neutralization of Iran’s conventional deterrent elements, its missile and drone programs and navy, and the remainder of its nuclear program, centered on its roughly 450 kg of highly enriched uranium. Regime alteration is a secondary goal, one whose outcome can only be determined by the Iranian people. Going forward, the two variables with the greatest impact on the outcome of this campaign will be pressure and protests.
Pressure: We expect the high intensity conflict to last at least two more weeks. When the direct conflict ends will be contingent on the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer the vital waterway is closed, the greater the pressure is on President Trump to adjust course and determine an exit. Any moves that facilitate the flow of ships will extend the shelf-life of the conflict. Global Guardian assesses that the earliest possible off-ramp would follow the destruction of Iran’s military industry and severe degradation of its offensive capabilities.
Protests: In order for the regime to fall there must be some element of forces on the ground. This could be protesters or defections from different elements of the security apparatus. Israel’s messaging around the conflict has consistently promoted the prospect of an uprising and President Trump has also urged the Iranian people to protest at various points in the last 90 days. With the current communications blackout in Iran, organizing mass protests will be quite difficult. Thus, until internet is restored, the prospects of renewed protests remain dim.
With these variables in mind, there are four possible scenarios going forward:
Early Exit: After mounting economic pressure and without signs of regime collapse, President Trump declares victory after degrading Iran’s offensive capacity and military industry severely. The power structure of the regime itself is largely intact, but Iran is too weak to pose a major threat for a number of years.
Venezuela Model: U.S.–Israel identify a high ranking IRGC officer who is willing to play the “Delcy Rodríguez” role in exchange for money and immunity for their inner circle. This new leader would agree to U.S.-dictated terms on nuclear enrichment and some token domestic reforms.
Iranian Color Revolution: Communications are restored, and large elements of society—including elements of the different security services—align to overthrow the current regime after weeks of protest. Leaders of several ethnic armed groups declare a preference for a federal model of governance over succession.
Civil War/Failed State: Communications are restored and the current regime loses control following mass protests. Prisons are emptied, security forces defect into several factions and rebellions start in Iran’s ethnic enclaves. Anti-regime forces don’t coalesce, and numerous factions compete for different spoils, some economic (resources), others political.
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace closed
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iran: airspace closed
- Iraq: airspace closed
- Israel: airspace partially open/restricted
- Jordan: airspace open
- Kuwait: airspace closed
- Lebanon: airspace partially open/restricted
- Oman: airspace open
- Update: Oman airspace remains open, but a Notam issued defining the routing for air traffic between United Arab Emirates (UAE) airports and Muscat is a restricted corridor system.
- Qatar: airspace partially open/restricted
- Update: Doha is open, but rerouting required to avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace. Qatar Airways operating with modified routings.
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace effectively closed
- UAE: airspace partially open
- Update: Restricted access that expires at 0700 EST on 16 March. Partial reopening; Dubai/Abu Dhabi at ~25% capacity. DBX is very crowded right now according to social media posts and videos.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
