On 28 March, the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen entered the conflict by launching a ballistic missile at Israel and two drones the following day. This follows threats made by the group the previous day. It likely serves as a warning to Israel and the Gulf states that they have the capability to inflict damage should things escalate with Iran. 

There were multiple diplomatic developments over the weekend. Spain’s military said it had closed its airspace to U.S. military flights assisting in the war against Iran while Pakistan hosted meetings involving Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani officials. President Donald Trump said that “great progress” had been made in talks with a “new” Iranian government; however, he also said in a Financial Times interview that his preference would be to "take the oil in Iran." These comments come amid ongoing troop deployments to the region. President Trump also said, "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't." While rhetoric around negotiations appears positive, troop buildup and active threats to Iran on social media indicate further escalation is likely. 

In addition to ground operations seizing and occupying Kharg Island, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the administration is considering a complex operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's enriched uranium that could be used to make nuclear weapons. Iran giving up its nuclear program and handing over its highly enriched uranium are key requirements for ending the conflict according to President Trump. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf states continued to report interception activity from Iranian attacks. In Kuwait, a power and desalination plant was damaged with repair work underway. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan all said they intercepted missiles and drones over the last several days, with Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Industrial Zone reporting multiple fires on 28 March. Qatar experienced multiple Iranian drone incursions over the weekend, the first after a multi-day pause in targeting by Iran.

On 26 March, President Trump announced the U.S. would delay strikes on Iranian power plants until 06 April and said negotiations were going very well. This follows an earlier extension of the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, set to expire today. At the same time, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said there were "strong signs" of a ceasefire deal and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said intermediary countries were “passing messages, and progress has been made” in talks with Iran.  

Despite more positive rhetoric around negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the region. Taken together, the extension of President Trump’s deadline, the potential troop increase, and Sen. Nancy Mace’s comments after a classified briefing suggest the U.S. is going to deploy troops to Iranian-controlled islands in the Strait of Hormuz within the next one to two weeks.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis threatened military intervention in the Iran conflict "if necessary" but have yet to explicitly commit to any particular redlines. It is possible that the group will return to attacks on Red Sea shipping or oil and gas infrastructure should the U.S. put boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz.

The last 48 hours have seen multiple news reports and direct quotes from President Trump signaling some level of discussions between the U.S. and Iran have either taken place or are going to happen in the coming days. Per The New York Times, the U.S. delivered a 15-point plan to Iran via Pakistan. During a press conference on 24 March, President Trump said the U.S. is talking to the "right people" (possibly Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) in Iran and claimed they "want to make a deal so badly." He further elaborated by claiming Iran has given the U.S. "a gift worth a lot of money" related to oil and gas. These statements, along with the announcement that VP JD Vance and Secretary Rubio are leading negotiations with Iran, possibly in Pakistan, are the strongest signals yet that diplomatic channels are open. 

The chatter around negotiations comes as the U.S. is deploying up to 3,000 soldiers with the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the region, in addition to the 2,500 Marines en route with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from Asia. They are expected to be in theater by this weekend, with an additional MEU from California expected to arrive next week. On several occasions, the U.S. has led the international community (and Iran) to believe negotiations were forthcoming before attacking Iran. The five-day ultimatum given by President Trump earlier in the week will expire around when these troops arrive in the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israeli pace of operations is decelerating. U.S. CENTCOM and the Joint Chiefs are issuing fewer tactical updates, and daily strike rates have fallen sharply—from approximately 500 targets per day in the early stages of the conflict to roughly 240 currently (approximately 1,200 targets struck between 18–23 March). An IDF official stated on 19 March that 90% of pre-conflict target sets had been struck. The U.S. and Israel may be approaching the limits of what airpower can reach. The two unresolved strategic objectives—reopening the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat—cannot be achieved through airpower alone and will require either ground forces or a diplomatic settlement.

Fog of War Is Clouding Negotiations

Talks are complicated by two compounding uncertainties. First, per a Wall Street Journal report, Iran's ceasefire proposal is maximalist. If this reflects Iran's actual position rather than an opening bid, the gap between the parties is too wide to bridge in the near term. Second, it remains unclear what authority the Iranian negotiating team holds over the IRGC. With Iran's command and control severely degraded, lower-level commanders appear to be operating with broad latitude under a decentralized "mosaic defense" doctrine. This creates a meaningful risk that talks could be undermined by remaining IRGC command elements—or by lower-level officers acting unilaterally—regardless of what any negotiating channel produces.

Post-Deadline Scenarios

After Friday's deadline, four trajectories are possible:

• Significant Escalation: The U.S. strikes Iran's largest power generation infrastructure; Iran retaliates with extensive damage to Gulf energy facilities, potentially drawing Gulf states or Houthi forces in Yemen into direct combat.

• Limited Escalation: The U.S. conducts targeted, symbolic strikes on Iranian fuel and energy infrastructure to increase negotiating pressure without triggering a broader exchange.

• Status Quo: President Trump allows his ultimatum to pass without action. Newly arrived expeditionary forces begin positioning for operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Temporary Ceasefire: Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey mediate a phased pause in hostilities, modeled on the Gaza framework, under which parties agree to suspend combat for a defined period while negotiators work to narrow the substantial gaps between positions. The U.S. or Israel would retain the option to resume operations if talks stall.

During the early morning hours on 23 March, President Trump announced on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of War to halt planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as "very good and productive conversations" with Iran regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities." He had previously set a 48-hour deadline on Saturday, 21 March for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face "obliteration" of its power plants. Iran threatened Gulf power plants and desalination facilities in response.

Iranian media say there was no direct or indirect contact with the Trump administration. As such, it is possible that Gulf states pressured the U.S. to postpone its strikes on Iranian power plants as the destruction of their own power plants would be catastrophic for maintaining desalination plants, their only source of fresh water. 

Over the weekend, Iran continued launching drones and missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. The vast majority were successfully intercepted. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia remain top targets for Iran. It appears that Qatar has not been targeted since last week's strikes on the Ras Laffan complex. 

In the last 48 hours, Iran has targeted oil and gas infrastructure across the region in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities linked to the South Pars gas field on 18 March. Targeted sites include the Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar, Mina al-Abdullah oil refinery in Kuwait, Al Hosn Gas Field, Habshan facility in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), SAMREF refinery in Saudi Arabia, Jubail Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia, and the Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex in Qatar. Iran also targeted Israel's Haifa oil refinery. 

Israeli sources describe the attack on the Iranian gas field as a coordinated warning signal to the Islamic Republic meant to make clear that if Iran keeps destabilizing the global economy through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, its energy sector will be hit. On 19 March, President Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel would not conduct further attacks on South Pars facilities and warned Iran that subsequent attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities would trigger American strikes on South Pars.    

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan released a joint statement expressing their readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure the safe passage of commercial shipping through the Strait. Germany and the Netherlands said a ceasefire or at least a cessation of hostilities was a precondition for participation. Despite the statement, it is unlikely any of these countries deploy military assets to the Strait until a ceasefire is in effect. 

According to an Axios report, the U.S. is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This could include U.S. troops on the ground or a U.S. Navy blockade of tankers bound for China and other destinations. An unnamed official is quoted as saying, "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, [and] take the island." This reinforces the idea that the conflict will continue for some time as both parties climb the escalation ladder with no clear off-ramp in sight. 

Israel announced it had killed Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Basij (Iran's internal repression apparatus), Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, in airstrikes on 17 March. According to CNN, citing an unnamed senior official, the U.S. and Israel considered Ali Larijani their favored transitional candidate last year, but he became a target following his push for violent crackdown on protestors earlier this year, his recent public rhetoric following the start of war, and his large role in strategizing IRGC response, including against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Addressing the assassination, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the killings “we are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it.” 

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reporting suggests that Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering joining the U.S. in operations to reopen it. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy "bunker buster" ordnance targeting missile sites in the caves above the Strait. 

 The Strait of Hormuz remains the current focal point of the conflict after the U.S. conducted strikes late on 13 March targeting Iran's military infrastructure on Kharg Island, the country's primary energy export hub. This could be in preparation for a ground operation after the U.S. announced the deployment of part of an amphibious ready group, including an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), to the region. The U.S. strike on the island left its oil infrastructure intact, but President Donald Trump warned that if Iran or anyone else interferes with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will reconsider his decision not to destroy it.

After the attack on Kharg Island, Iran threatened retaliation against multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it claims U.S. attacks originated: “[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is preparing to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries, including NATO allies, have either declined or been noncommittal; however, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced on 16 March that the UK is working on a "viable plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with allies. This comes after President Trump said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if allies don't help secure the Strait.

Relatedly, Saudi Arabia's East–West Pipeline is now moving nearly 7 million bpd from the Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of the supply disruptions. Dozens of tankers are now making their way through the Red Sea to the Yanbu terminal to load up on crude oil; however, there is growing concern that the Houthis in Yemen could attempt to disrupt the route. In addition, a spokesman for Iran's joint command (Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters) warned that "The logistical and service centers for the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea are considered targets by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." Yanbu port is the logistical hub for the USS Gerald R. Ford, raising concerns it will be targeted. 

On 12 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil through various Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). These SPRs are held by its 32 member countries that voted unanimously to move forward with the release. President Trump announced the U.S. would release 172 million barrels from its 415-million-barrel reserve. Asia has been affected most heavily by the supply shock due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It relies on the Gulf for some 60% of its oil imports. Japan will release around 80 million barrels, equivalent to a 45-day supply.   

The IEA decision comes a day after Iraq shut down its fuel port operations following strikes on several tankers in its territorial waters by explosive-laden, unmanned boats. The only tankers passing through the Strait are Iranian ships headed for China, or ones that receive special approval as has occurred for some Turkish and Chinese-flagged vessels.

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both commented on the possibility of U.S. Navy escorts of tankers through the Strait. Secretary Bessent said it could happen with an international coalition. While no timeline was given, President Trump has frequently said it would happen "as soon as possible" or "as soon as necessary." It's likely the release of the SPR will push back the timing on possible Navy escorts while the U.S. continues to degrade Iran's military capabilities.

ECUADOR | Ethiopia & Eritrea

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Various news outlets have reported that the IRGC Navy has mined or is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to inflict maximum economic pain on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S. This reporting prompted President Trump to issue a warning to Iran to remove the mines immediately and if they “are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before." President Trump followed up by announcing multiple strikes on Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Iran has also escalated its targeting threats on two fronts. The first is on U.S. and Israeli economic centers and banks in the region in retaliation for a strike on an Iranian bank on 10 March. An IRGC-linked group warned residents in the region to stay at least 1 km away from these assets. The second is American tech firms ostensibly with ties to the U.S. government through contracts. An Al Jazeera report, citing Iran's Tasnim news agency, published a list of what it said was Iran's new targets, including offices tied to Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir in Israel and around the region, including in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. “With the expansion of the regional war into an infrastructure war, the scope of Iran’s legitimate targets gradually becomes broader,” the post reads.

While these threats should not be taken lightly, Iran has been consistently mixed in its messaging versus reality when it comes to strike targets. This is primarily due to a lack of command and control structure and communication between leadership and the military forces launching missiles and drones.

Separately, over the past five days, a cluster of terrorism incidents across the West has raised alarm about Iranian-linked blowback from the ongoing conflict: 

• On 07 March, two men were arrested in New York after deploying an improvised explosive device at a protest.
• In the early hours of 09 March, a bomb exploded outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, and a separate blast hit the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway—both under investigation as potential terror acts.
• In Toronto on 10 March, two suspects fired multiple shots at the U.S. Consulate at 360 University Avenue, following three separate synagogue shootings in the Greater Toronto Area over the last two weekends.
  
• These incidents coincide with a surge of intelligence warnings issued over the same period. The U.S. intelligence community has circulated private bulletins to American companies and law enforcement urging vigilance against cyber and physical attacks, with DHS warning of a heightened threat environment following the killing of Khamenei, citing two senior Iranian religious leaders who issued separate Farsi-language fatwas calling for worldwide retaliation, and an IRGC warning.
• Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence officials are warning that intercepted encrypted transmissions from Iran may be an “operational trigger” for sleeper agents. While no specific, credible threat has been announced, the FBI has elevated its alert level nationwide, with authorities particularly focused on U.S. energy infrastructure, the financial sector, and defense contractors with ties to Israeli firms.