On 04 April, President Trump on Truth Social reiterated the ten-day ultimatum issued on 26 March to Iran to make a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or "all Hell will reign down." A day later President Trump posted on Truth Social saying "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" indicating a 24-hour extension of the deadline. He threatened power plants and bridges, telling Iran, "Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." Iran responded by rejecting the ultimatum and issued its own warning saying, "the gates of hell will open for you." Iran continues to demand a ceasefire as a prerequisite step to talks. The U.S. ultimatum, Iranian rejection, and extension of the deadline follow a familiar pattern since the U.S. first threatened to take out Iran's power plants on 21 March. Given the escalating rhetoric, it is more likely than not that the U.S. follows through on its latest rounds of threats. 

Over the weekend, the U.S. successfully rescued multiple aircraft crew who were shot down over the region. The Weapons Systems Officer of a downed F-15 was rescued by U.S. commandos after 36 hours behind enemy lines. The operation involved hundreds of special forces personnel, dozens of aircraft, and a CIA deception plan. President Trump will host a briefing on the operation today at 1:00 pm ET. 

Both Japan and the Philippines have reportedly engaged with Iran to secure safe passage of tankers. Both rely heavily on oil from the Gulf. On 04 April, a second Japan-affiliated tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz. At least 40 more vessels tied to Japan remain stuck in the Strait. Iran also granted Iraq permission to transit the Strait.

Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance continue to trade strikes. Tehran, Qom, Ahvaz, and Asaluyeh bore the brunt of strikes over the past 48 hours. Early Monday, both Iranian and Israeli statements confirmed that Major General Seyyed Majid Khademi, the IRGC intelligence chief, was killed in a strike in the capital. Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh, rendering it inoperable. Gulf states continued to deal with Iranian drones and missiles.

On 01 April, President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation framing Operation Epic Fury as "nearing completion" and reiterated that the military will target Iran’s electric facilities if no deal is made with Iranian leadership to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded within hours with a barrage of attacks on Gulf states and a formal vow of "more crushing, broader and more destructive" strikes. 

In the 36 hours since the speech, both the U.S. and Iran have escalated their targeting. The U.S. bombed the Karaj bridge outside Tehran, the Pasteur Institute, a pharmaceutical plant, and a steel factory. Iran has since targeted or claimed to target an Oracle data center in Dubai and an Amazon AWS center in Bahrain. In Kuwait, Iran set multiple units of the Mina Al-Ahmadi port refinery on fire and damaged a water and desalination plant. It also struck the Habshan gas plant in Abu Dhabi, causing a fire. Iran has also vowed to strike energy and telecom infrastructure in the Gulf should the U.S. attack power plants. 

An 02 April Truth Social post by President Trump stated that "Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!". This indicates the 06 April deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and come to a deal with the U.S. is still in effect. 

According to a 31 March report from The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has told aides he is willing to end the campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and under de facto control of Iran. This would keep the conflict within the four-to-six-week window originally laid out and suggests U.S. boots on the ground are now unlikely. President Trump will address the nation tonight at 9 pm ET where it is expected he will announce a timeline to end the conflict. 

President Trump made several public comments over the last 48 hours suggesting the campaign is nearing its end, saying the U.S. offensive in Iran could conclude “in two to three weeks,” adding that the United States would be “leaving soon." The question of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz would not be up to the U.S. to answer, according to President Trump. "The U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump says of allies. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” This may be strategic messaging to other countries to get involved now, with the U.S., or be forced into action later should Iran continue to effectively close the Strait. 

Other administration officials amplified messaging around military objectives being largely met. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 31 March that the main goal of preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon had been achieved. He also clarified that the objectives were the destruction of Iran's air force, the destruction of its navy, the "severe diminishing" of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories. He echoed President Trump's timeline, saying the war could be over in a matter of weeks.  

While Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the U.S. and Israel to end the conflict, it remains to be seen if they will give up their newfound control of the Strait should the U.S. withdraw. They may continue to extract concessions from tankers depending on their allegiances and target those belonging to U.S. allies who do not make significant changes. Iran has previously demanded the Gulf states no longer allow U.S. bases or troops on their territory. They could hold tankers servicing Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia hostage unless they bow to this demand.

On 28 March, the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen entered the conflict by launching a ballistic missile at Israel and two drones the following day. This follows threats made by the group the previous day. It likely serves as a warning to Israel and the Gulf states that they have the capability to inflict damage should things escalate with Iran. 

There were multiple diplomatic developments over the weekend. Spain’s military said it had closed its airspace to U.S. military flights assisting in the war against Iran while Pakistan hosted meetings involving Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani officials. President Donald Trump said that “great progress” had been made in talks with a “new” Iranian government; however, he also said in a Financial Times interview that his preference would be to "take the oil in Iran." These comments come amid ongoing troop deployments to the region. President Trump also said, "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't." While rhetoric around negotiations appears positive, troop buildup and active threats to Iran on social media indicate further escalation is likely. 

In addition to ground operations seizing and occupying Kharg Island, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the administration is considering a complex operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's enriched uranium that could be used to make nuclear weapons. Iran giving up its nuclear program and handing over its highly enriched uranium are key requirements for ending the conflict according to President Trump. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf states continued to report interception activity from Iranian attacks. In Kuwait, a power and desalination plant was damaged with repair work underway. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan all said they intercepted missiles and drones over the last several days, with Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Industrial Zone reporting multiple fires on 28 March. Qatar experienced multiple Iranian drone incursions over the weekend, the first after a multi-day pause in targeting by Iran.

On 26 March, President Trump announced the U.S. would delay strikes on Iranian power plants until 06 April and said negotiations were going very well. This follows an earlier extension of the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, set to expire today. At the same time, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said there were "strong signs" of a ceasefire deal and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said intermediary countries were “passing messages, and progress has been made” in talks with Iran.  

Despite more positive rhetoric around negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the region. Taken together, the extension of President Trump’s deadline, the potential troop increase, and Sen. Nancy Mace’s comments after a classified briefing suggest the U.S. is going to deploy troops to Iranian-controlled islands in the Strait of Hormuz within the next one to two weeks.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis threatened military intervention in the Iran conflict "if necessary" but have yet to explicitly commit to any particular redlines. It is possible that the group will return to attacks on Red Sea shipping or oil and gas infrastructure should the U.S. put boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz.

The last 48 hours have seen multiple news reports and direct quotes from President Trump signaling some level of discussions between the U.S. and Iran have either taken place or are going to happen in the coming days. Per The New York Times, the U.S. delivered a 15-point plan to Iran via Pakistan. During a press conference on 24 March, President Trump said the U.S. is talking to the "right people" (possibly Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) in Iran and claimed they "want to make a deal so badly." He further elaborated by claiming Iran has given the U.S. "a gift worth a lot of money" related to oil and gas. These statements, along with the announcement that VP JD Vance and Secretary Rubio are leading negotiations with Iran, possibly in Pakistan, are the strongest signals yet that diplomatic channels are open. 

The chatter around negotiations comes as the U.S. is deploying up to 3,000 soldiers with the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the region, in addition to the 2,500 Marines en route with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from Asia. They are expected to be in theater by this weekend, with an additional MEU from California expected to arrive next week. On several occasions, the U.S. has led the international community (and Iran) to believe negotiations were forthcoming before attacking Iran. The five-day ultimatum given by President Trump earlier in the week will expire around when these troops arrive in the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israeli pace of operations is decelerating. U.S. CENTCOM and the Joint Chiefs are issuing fewer tactical updates, and daily strike rates have fallen sharply—from approximately 500 targets per day in the early stages of the conflict to roughly 240 currently (approximately 1,200 targets struck between 18–23 March). An IDF official stated on 19 March that 90% of pre-conflict target sets had been struck. The U.S. and Israel may be approaching the limits of what airpower can reach. The two unresolved strategic objectives—reopening the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat—cannot be achieved through airpower alone and will require either ground forces or a diplomatic settlement.

Fog of War Is Clouding Negotiations

Talks are complicated by two compounding uncertainties. First, per a Wall Street Journal report, Iran's ceasefire proposal is maximalist. If this reflects Iran's actual position rather than an opening bid, the gap between the parties is too wide to bridge in the near term. Second, it remains unclear what authority the Iranian negotiating team holds over the IRGC. With Iran's command and control severely degraded, lower-level commanders appear to be operating with broad latitude under a decentralized "mosaic defense" doctrine. This creates a meaningful risk that talks could be undermined by remaining IRGC command elements—or by lower-level officers acting unilaterally—regardless of what any negotiating channel produces.

Post-Deadline Scenarios

After Friday's deadline, four trajectories are possible:

• Significant Escalation: The U.S. strikes Iran's largest power generation infrastructure; Iran retaliates with extensive damage to Gulf energy facilities, potentially drawing Gulf states or Houthi forces in Yemen into direct combat.

• Limited Escalation: The U.S. conducts targeted, symbolic strikes on Iranian fuel and energy infrastructure to increase negotiating pressure without triggering a broader exchange.

• Status Quo: President Trump allows his ultimatum to pass without action. Newly arrived expeditionary forces begin positioning for operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Temporary Ceasefire: Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey mediate a phased pause in hostilities, modeled on the Gaza framework, under which parties agree to suspend combat for a defined period while negotiators work to narrow the substantial gaps between positions. The U.S. or Israel would retain the option to resume operations if talks stall.

During the early morning hours on 23 March, President Trump announced on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of War to halt planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as "very good and productive conversations" with Iran regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities." He had previously set a 48-hour deadline on Saturday, 21 March for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face "obliteration" of its power plants. Iran threatened Gulf power plants and desalination facilities in response.

Iranian media say there was no direct or indirect contact with the Trump administration. As such, it is possible that Gulf states pressured the U.S. to postpone its strikes on Iranian power plants as the destruction of their own power plants would be catastrophic for maintaining desalination plants, their only source of fresh water. 

Over the weekend, Iran continued launching drones and missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. The vast majority were successfully intercepted. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia remain top targets for Iran. It appears that Qatar has not been targeted since last week's strikes on the Ras Laffan complex. 

In the last 48 hours, Iran has targeted oil and gas infrastructure across the region in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities linked to the South Pars gas field on 18 March. Targeted sites include the Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar, Mina al-Abdullah oil refinery in Kuwait, Al Hosn Gas Field, Habshan facility in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), SAMREF refinery in Saudi Arabia, Jubail Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia, and the Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex in Qatar. Iran also targeted Israel's Haifa oil refinery. 

Israeli sources describe the attack on the Iranian gas field as a coordinated warning signal to the Islamic Republic meant to make clear that if Iran keeps destabilizing the global economy through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, its energy sector will be hit. On 19 March, President Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel would not conduct further attacks on South Pars facilities and warned Iran that subsequent attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities would trigger American strikes on South Pars.    

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan released a joint statement expressing their readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure the safe passage of commercial shipping through the Strait. Germany and the Netherlands said a ceasefire or at least a cessation of hostilities was a precondition for participation. Despite the statement, it is unlikely any of these countries deploy military assets to the Strait until a ceasefire is in effect. 

According to an Axios report, the U.S. is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This could include U.S. troops on the ground or a U.S. Navy blockade of tankers bound for China and other destinations. An unnamed official is quoted as saying, "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, [and] take the island." This reinforces the idea that the conflict will continue for some time as both parties climb the escalation ladder with no clear off-ramp in sight. 

Israel announced it had killed Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Basij (Iran's internal repression apparatus), Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, in airstrikes on 17 March. According to CNN, citing an unnamed senior official, the U.S. and Israel considered Ali Larijani their favored transitional candidate last year, but he became a target following his push for violent crackdown on protestors earlier this year, his recent public rhetoric following the start of war, and his large role in strategizing IRGC response, including against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Addressing the assassination, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the killings “we are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it.” 

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reporting suggests that Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering joining the U.S. in operations to reopen it. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy "bunker buster" ordnance targeting missile sites in the caves above the Strait. 

 The Strait of Hormuz remains the current focal point of the conflict after the U.S. conducted strikes late on 13 March targeting Iran's military infrastructure on Kharg Island, the country's primary energy export hub. This could be in preparation for a ground operation after the U.S. announced the deployment of part of an amphibious ready group, including an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), to the region. The U.S. strike on the island left its oil infrastructure intact, but President Donald Trump warned that if Iran or anyone else interferes with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will reconsider his decision not to destroy it.

After the attack on Kharg Island, Iran threatened retaliation against multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it claims U.S. attacks originated: “[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is preparing to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries, including NATO allies, have either declined or been noncommittal; however, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced on 16 March that the UK is working on a "viable plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with allies. This comes after President Trump said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if allies don't help secure the Strait.

Relatedly, Saudi Arabia's East–West Pipeline is now moving nearly 7 million bpd from the Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of the supply disruptions. Dozens of tankers are now making their way through the Red Sea to the Yanbu terminal to load up on crude oil; however, there is growing concern that the Houthis in Yemen could attempt to disrupt the route. In addition, a spokesman for Iran's joint command (Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters) warned that "The logistical and service centers for the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea are considered targets by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." Yanbu port is the logistical hub for the USS Gerald R. Ford, raising concerns it will be targeted.