Iran said on 20 April that it had no plans for the next round of negotiations amid the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and ships, and that normalizing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could not happen unilaterally because of U.S. actions. The country's leadership also noted that removing enriched uranium stockpiles was never a negotiation option and has not been discussed in talks. Peace talks scheduled for this evening in Islamabad, Pakistan, appear unlikely to occur.

The latest Iranian comments come after U.S. naval forces intercepted and boarded the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, as it tried to exit the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. CENTCOM says it issued warnings over a six-hour period before the USS Spruance fired at its engine room, disabling the ship. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) then boarded and seized the vessel. This is the first reported use of force to maintain the blockade.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following a reversal of the reopening announcements by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A day after he announced that the Strait was open, the IRGC fired on at least two ships in the Gulf, causing them and others to turn back and signaling the Strait remains closed despite the earlier announcement. The Wall Street Journal reported that there is a growing rift in Iran between the hard-line IRGC and current political leadership, with the reversal over the Strait the latest sign of this split.  

Given the diplomatic, political, and military whiplash over the last 72 hours, it is apparent the U.S. and Iran are as far from a deal as they have ever been and the prospects for a return to some form of conflict are high as the ceasefire is set to expire on 22 April. On 19 April, President Trump said the U.S. will destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran if there is no deal and that he is preparing to hit Iran "harder than ever." A resumption of hostilities would likely include attacks on Gulf states.  

On 17 April, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for all commercial vessels (through the Iran-controlled corridor) for the remaining days of the ceasefire. President Trump voiced optimism about a deal in interviews to reporters on 16 April. He said Iran agreed not to acquire a nuclear weapon and that the agreement that was currently being negotiated “goes beyond 20 years.” He said the prospects for a deal with Iran were “looking very good,” adding that the next meeting with the Iranian delegation could take place during the weekend.

A Pakistani diplomat told Reuters that backchannel diplomacy via Pakistan is ongoing, with a possibility that the next bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Iran involves the signing of a memorandum of understanding, an agreement on principles, before the technical points are agreed upon.

Israel and Lebanon also agreed to a ceasefire lasting 10 days that went into effect on 16 April at 5:00 pm ET. The two countries held in-person talks in Washington, DC on 14 April for the first time in 34 years, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. President Trump also announced the invitation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House as part of a peace push. Of note, the Israel–Lebanon joint statement's preamble included a tacit end to the mutual state of war that has existed since 1948: "Israel and Lebanon affirm that the two countries are not at war," stating that the two countries will continue direct negotiations toward a formal peace agreement.

Much like the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, this deal allows Israel to maintain its buffer zone (around 8% of Lebanese territory) and allows it to conduct "all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks." On 17 April, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said that Israel’s goals for its war against Hezbollah, namely the demilitarization of southern Lebanon, had yet to be realized and would need to either be accomplished diplomatically or through a resumption of fighting after the ceasefire.

The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is as much about the Iran negotiations as it is about Lebanon. Iran has maintained that a ceasefire in Lebanon is a precondition to progress on talks with the U.S. In this light, the Lebanon ceasefire can be seen as calling Iran's bluff. With this obstacle removed, it will now be clearer if there is room to settle the nuclear issue diplomatically.

ASIA-PACIFIC | COLOMBIA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

On 15 April, Iran's IRGC threatened to forcibly halt exports through the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea if the U.S. blockade continues. This threat comes after two days of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. U.S. CENTCOM said on 14 April that no ships had breached the blockade and that six vessels had so far complied with direction to return to Iranian ports; however, there are conflicting accounts regarding tanker traffic. During the early morning hours of 15 April, Iran's Fars news agency claimed that an Iranian VLCC tanker on the U.S. sanctions list was able to enter the Strait of Hormuz from open water and dock at an Iranian port. 

Despite the ongoing blockade and Iranian threats, the ceasefire appears to be holding. There have been no attacks on Gulf states since the initial violations reported in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Airspace has largely been reopened in the region, except for Kuwait, and multiple airlines are ending their war-related suspensions. The ceasefire is set to expire on 21 April.

Comments made by President Trump on 14 April to ABC News' Jonathan Karl indicate that the next two days will be critical with the U.S. either walking away from further conflict or reaching a deal with Iran. Trump said, "I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," and that "...I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild. They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals. They’re gone, no longer with us." A second round of negotiations may take place this week in Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey. Nuclear weapons remain the sticking point.

During the evening of 11 April, U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced the failure of negotiations with Iran to produce an agreement. Reports indicate that the U.S. proposed a partial release of frozen Iranian funds and the end to the conflict in exchange for a 20-year freeze on Iranian enrichment, the removal of all enriched material from Iran, and toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After announcing the failure of talks, Vice President Vance explained that the primary sticking point was the nuclear issue: "We need to see an affirmative commitment that [the Iranians] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."

On 12 April, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy "will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that it will implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on 13 April at 10:00 am ET. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations operating in Iranian coastal areas, including ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Assets from the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with additional destroyers, are expected to support enforcement operations.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering resuming limited strikes on Iran in conjunction with the blockade to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. This report comes as more U.S. military assets have been transferred to the region, and two naval ships have transited the Strait. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are on their way to the region.

By starting de-mining operations and implementing a blockade all under the cover of a ceasefire, the U.S. is incrementally asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, eroding Iran's main point of leverage. Meanwhile, the blockade will put direct economic pressure on Iran and indirect pressure on China to push Iran to return to the negotiating table.

Negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on 11 April. Per open-source flight tracking, the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is en route to Pakistan. Talks are expected to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between the two separate delegations. Direct U.S.–Iran fighting has paused, but the status of the ceasefire and of the proposed talks in general is precarious.

Ceasefire violations and the inclusion of Lebanon are major pressure points. Iran is conditioning talks on Lebanon being included in the ceasefire, while the U.S. and Israel reject that completely. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said it may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included. Iranian state media claims that the Iranian delegation has yet to depart for Pakistan, citing ongoing fighting in Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under pressure from the United States to scale back military operations in Lebanon. During a call from President Trump, Netanyahu “agreed to be a helpful partner.” Following the call, the prime minister ordered the Israeli government to start direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The previous day, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets all across Lebanon in what it labeled "Operation Eternal Darkness." The strikes killed over 300 people and injured over 1,100. The Lebanese government declared a day of national mourning the following day on 09 April.

New polling has emerged indicating that public opinion could act as a force to stymie the conflict resolution process. In a YouGov poll, an equal proportion of 34% of Americans believe that no side won the war and that the U.S. won the war, with only 14% seeing Iran as the victor. Meanwhile, in an Israeli poll conducted by Walla and Maariv, 46% of Israelis believe the U.S. and Israel did not achieve victory, with 63% of polled Israelis saying they were dissatisfied with the outcome of the war.

Meanwhile, the precondition for the ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, has not been fulfilled. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump voiced frustrations with Iran’s compliance, saying that "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have.” Four tankers and three bulk carriers crossed through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday, making a total of twelve vessels since the start of the ceasefire—down from upwards of 100 daily in peacetime.

On 07 April, just before the 8 pm ET deadline, President Trump announced on Truth Social a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran agreed to the initial terms and stated that safe passage would be allowed through the Strait during the two-week ceasefire in coordination with Iranian armed forces. Iran is seeking to collect $2 million per vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Annual revenue from such fees could be more than double Iran's revenue from oil and gas exports. The two-week ceasefire will allow the U.S. and Iran to fully negotiate terms of a lasting deal which could prove mutually beneficial, as President Trump told ABC News' Jonathan Karl this morning that "We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it—also securing it from lots of other people.”

President Trump noted that the ten-point plan proposed by Iran "is a workable basis on which to negotiate." Iran's Tasnim state media claims the U.S. agreed to the following conditions as a basis for negotiations. However, it is unlikely that many of these points are agreed upon:

1. The U.S. should commit in principle to guarantee non-aggression.
2. Iran's continued control of the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Accepting enrichment.
4. Lifting all primary sanctions.
5. Lifting all secondary sanctions.
6. Termination of all Security Council resolutions.
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions.
8. Payment of damages to Iran.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Lebanese Hezbollah.

A follow-up Truth Social post this morning shed additional light on a potential agreement, with President Trump saying, "The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” While at odds with Iran's ten-point plan, collaboration with Iran to remove the buried highly enriched Uranium and Iran's agreement to forgo future enrichment would be a significant development in meeting one of the U.S. and Israel's primary goals to never allow a nuclear-armed Iran.

Despite the ceasefire announcement, multiple drone and missile attacks were recorded targeting Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past several hours. These were likely retaliation for attacks on an Iranian refinery on Lavan Island and an unspecified target on Sirri Island earlier on 08 April, though Iran did not specifically blame them, instead saying there was an "attack by enemies." It remains unclear who carried out the strikes on those two Iranian islands.

The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq agreed to abide by the two-week ceasefire, and both Iraq and Syria have reopened airspace as of today. While Israel has agreed to stop attacking Iran, it continues to strike at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

On 04 April, President Trump on Truth Social reiterated the ten-day ultimatum issued on 26 March to Iran to make a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or "all Hell will reign down." A day later President Trump posted on Truth Social saying "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" indicating a 24-hour extension of the deadline. He threatened power plants and bridges, telling Iran, "Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." Iran responded by rejecting the ultimatum and issued its own warning saying, "the gates of hell will open for you." Iran continues to demand a ceasefire as a prerequisite step to talks. The U.S. ultimatum, Iranian rejection, and extension of the deadline follow a familiar pattern since the U.S. first threatened to take out Iran's power plants on 21 March. Given the escalating rhetoric, it is more likely than not that the U.S. follows through on its latest rounds of threats. 

Over the weekend, the U.S. successfully rescued multiple aircraft crew who were shot down over the region. The Weapons Systems Officer of a downed F-15 was rescued by U.S. commandos after 36 hours behind enemy lines. The operation involved hundreds of special forces personnel, dozens of aircraft, and a CIA deception plan. President Trump will host a briefing on the operation today at 1:00 pm ET. 

Both Japan and the Philippines have reportedly engaged with Iran to secure safe passage of tankers. Both rely heavily on oil from the Gulf. On 04 April, a second Japan-affiliated tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz. At least 40 more vessels tied to Japan remain stuck in the Strait. Iran also granted Iraq permission to transit the Strait.

Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance continue to trade strikes. Tehran, Qom, Ahvaz, and Asaluyeh bore the brunt of strikes over the past 48 hours. Early Monday, both Iranian and Israeli statements confirmed that Major General Seyyed Majid Khademi, the IRGC intelligence chief, was killed in a strike in the capital. Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh, rendering it inoperable. Gulf states continued to deal with Iranian drones and missiles.

On 01 April, President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation framing Operation Epic Fury as "nearing completion" and reiterated that the military will target Iran’s electric facilities if no deal is made with Iranian leadership to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded within hours with a barrage of attacks on Gulf states and a formal vow of "more crushing, broader and more destructive" strikes. 

In the 36 hours since the speech, both the U.S. and Iran have escalated their targeting. The U.S. bombed the Karaj bridge outside Tehran, the Pasteur Institute, a pharmaceutical plant, and a steel factory. Iran has since targeted or claimed to target an Oracle data center in Dubai and an Amazon AWS center in Bahrain. In Kuwait, Iran set multiple units of the Mina Al-Ahmadi port refinery on fire and damaged a water and desalination plant. It also struck the Habshan gas plant in Abu Dhabi, causing a fire. Iran has also vowed to strike energy and telecom infrastructure in the Gulf should the U.S. attack power plants. 

An 02 April Truth Social post by President Trump stated that "Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!". This indicates the 06 April deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and come to a deal with the U.S. is still in effect. 

According to a 31 March report from The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has told aides he is willing to end the campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and under de facto control of Iran. This would keep the conflict within the four-to-six-week window originally laid out and suggests U.S. boots on the ground are now unlikely. President Trump will address the nation tonight at 9 pm ET where it is expected he will announce a timeline to end the conflict. 

President Trump made several public comments over the last 48 hours suggesting the campaign is nearing its end, saying the U.S. offensive in Iran could conclude “in two to three weeks,” adding that the United States would be “leaving soon." The question of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz would not be up to the U.S. to answer, according to President Trump. "The U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump says of allies. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” This may be strategic messaging to other countries to get involved now, with the U.S., or be forced into action later should Iran continue to effectively close the Strait. 

Other administration officials amplified messaging around military objectives being largely met. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 31 March that the main goal of preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon had been achieved. He also clarified that the objectives were the destruction of Iran's air force, the destruction of its navy, the "severe diminishing" of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories. He echoed President Trump's timeline, saying the war could be over in a matter of weeks.  

While Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the U.S. and Israel to end the conflict, it remains to be seen if they will give up their newfound control of the Strait should the U.S. withdraw. They may continue to extract concessions from tankers depending on their allegiances and target those belonging to U.S. allies who do not make significant changes. Iran has previously demanded the Gulf states no longer allow U.S. bases or troops on their territory. They could hold tankers servicing Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia hostage unless they bow to this demand.