Israel announced it had killed Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Basij (Iran's internal repression apparatus), Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, in airstrikes on 17 March. According to CNN, citing an unnamed senior official, the U.S. and Israel considered Ali Larijani their favored transitional candidate last year, but he became a target following his push for violent crackdown on protestors earlier this year, his recent public rhetoric following the start of war, and his large role in strategizing IRGC response, including against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Addressing the assassination, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the killings “we are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it.” 

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reporting suggests that Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering joining the U.S. in operations to reopen it. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy "bunker buster" ordnance targeting missile sites in the caves above the Strait. 

 The Strait of Hormuz remains the current focal point of the conflict after the U.S. conducted strikes late on 13 March targeting Iran's military infrastructure on Kharg Island, the country's primary energy export hub. This could be in preparation for a ground operation after the U.S. announced the deployment of part of an amphibious ready group, including an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), to the region. The U.S. strike on the island left its oil infrastructure intact, but President Donald Trump warned that if Iran or anyone else interferes with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will reconsider his decision not to destroy it.

After the attack on Kharg Island, Iran threatened retaliation against multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it claims U.S. attacks originated: “[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is preparing to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries, including NATO allies, have either declined or been noncommittal; however, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced on 16 March that the UK is working on a "viable plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with allies. This comes after President Trump said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if allies don't help secure the Strait.

Relatedly, Saudi Arabia's East–West Pipeline is now moving nearly 7 million bpd from the Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of the supply disruptions. Dozens of tankers are now making their way through the Red Sea to the Yanbu terminal to load up on crude oil; however, there is growing concern that the Houthis in Yemen could attempt to disrupt the route. In addition, a spokesman for Iran's joint command (Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters) warned that "The logistical and service centers for the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea are considered targets by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." Yanbu port is the logistical hub for the USS Gerald R. Ford, raising concerns it will be targeted. 

On 12 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil through various Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). These SPRs are held by its 32 member countries that voted unanimously to move forward with the release. President Trump announced the U.S. would release 172 million barrels from its 415-million-barrel reserve. Asia has been affected most heavily by the supply shock due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It relies on the Gulf for some 60% of its oil imports. Japan will release around 80 million barrels, equivalent to a 45-day supply.   

The IEA decision comes a day after Iraq shut down its fuel port operations following strikes on several tankers in its territorial waters by explosive-laden, unmanned boats. The only tankers passing through the Strait are Iranian ships headed for China, or ones that receive special approval as has occurred for some Turkish and Chinese-flagged vessels.

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both commented on the possibility of U.S. Navy escorts of tankers through the Strait. Secretary Bessent said it could happen with an international coalition. While no timeline was given, President Trump has frequently said it would happen "as soon as possible" or "as soon as necessary." It's likely the release of the SPR will push back the timing on possible Navy escorts while the U.S. continues to degrade Iran's military capabilities.

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Various news outlets have reported that the IRGC Navy has mined or is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to inflict maximum economic pain on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S. This reporting prompted President Trump to issue a warning to Iran to remove the mines immediately and if they “are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before." President Trump followed up by announcing multiple strikes on Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Iran has also escalated its targeting threats on two fronts. The first is on U.S. and Israeli economic centers and banks in the region in retaliation for a strike on an Iranian bank on 10 March. An IRGC-linked group warned residents in the region to stay at least 1 km away from these assets. The second is American tech firms ostensibly with ties to the U.S. government through contracts. An Al Jazeera report, citing Iran's Tasnim news agency, published a list of what it said was Iran's new targets, including offices tied to Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir in Israel and around the region, including in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. “With the expansion of the regional war into an infrastructure war, the scope of Iran’s legitimate targets gradually becomes broader,” the post reads.

While these threats should not be taken lightly, Iran has been consistently mixed in its messaging versus reality when it comes to strike targets. This is primarily due to a lack of command and control structure and communication between leadership and the military forces launching missiles and drones.

Separately, over the past five days, a cluster of terrorism incidents across the West has raised alarm about Iranian-linked blowback from the ongoing conflict: 

• On 07 March, two men were arrested in New York after deploying an improvised explosive device at a protest.
• In the early hours of 09 March, a bomb exploded outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, and a separate blast hit the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway—both under investigation as potential terror acts.
• In Toronto on 10 March, two suspects fired multiple shots at the U.S. Consulate at 360 University Avenue, following three separate synagogue shootings in the Greater Toronto Area over the last two weekends.
  
• These incidents coincide with a surge of intelligence warnings issued over the same period. The U.S. intelligence community has circulated private bulletins to American companies and law enforcement urging vigilance against cyber and physical attacks, with DHS warning of a heightened threat environment following the killing of Khamenei, citing two senior Iranian religious leaders who issued separate Farsi-language fatwas calling for worldwide retaliation, and an IRGC warning.
• Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence officials are warning that intercepted encrypted transmissions from Iran may be an “operational trigger” for sleeper agents. While no specific, credible threat has been announced, the FBI has elevated its alert level nationwide, with authorities particularly focused on U.S. energy infrastructure, the financial sector, and defense contractors with ties to Israeli firms.  

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader on 08 March after the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, at the start of the conflict. Mojtaba is seen as a hardliner who is unlikely to negotiate with the U.S. He had previously served in Iran's armed forces and fought in the Iran–Iraq war. Israel's defense minister said last week that whoever was chosen as Ali Khamenei's successor would be "an unequivocal target for elimination." U.S. President Donald Trump said that anyone selected to lead Iran without their approval would "not last long."

In an apparent escalation of targets, Iran accused the U.S. of striking Iran's freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, 07 March. Iran retaliated in kind by causing "material damage" to one of Bahrain's desalination plants the following day. Targeting of such critical infrastructure could endanger every resident in impacted areas and increases the chance of Gulf states officially entering the conflict against Iran.

On 08 March, the U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and family from Saudi Arabia, indicating it anticipates further targeting. It also ordered the departure of non-emergency staff and family from the U.S. Consulate in Adana, Turkey, and urged citizens in southeastern Turkey to leave amid increased threat from Iran. Incirlik Air Base is near Adana and is a major joint U.S.–Turkish base. This comes after Turkey announced it would deploy six F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems to Turkish-administered Northern Cyprus.

Conflicting statements and denials of attacks out of Iran indicate their Command and Control (C2) structure remains disrupted, with IRGC commanders and missile and drone outposts operating off a pre-determined targeting program, and not with direct approval from current leadership.

The U.S., UK, France, Germany, Canada, and other countries are ramping up their evacuation operations and preparations in the region but continue to deal with disruptions. An Air France plane heading to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to pick up stranded French citizens was forced to turn back amid Iranian missile fire. The U.S. claims to have moved nearly 20,000 people out of the region. The UK, France, and Germany are preparing to possibly evacuate 100,000, 400,000, and 30,000 citizens, respectively.

Airspace remains closed in much of the region; however, commercial flights out of the UAE are gradually coming back online as the country operates a reduced flight schedule, with departures occurring only when deemed safe amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks. In the past 24 hours, approximately 400 commercial flights (previously cancelled services and repatriation flights) have taken place.

Separately, energy prices are elevated as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs and the CEO of QatarEnergy, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, said in an interview with the Financial Times that crude oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel within the next two to three weeks if the current regional conflict persists.

The conflict continues to expand horizontally as two Iranian drones struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. According to local officials, one drone hit a terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport (NAJ), about 6 miles from the Iranian border, while another landed near a school in a nearby village, with the injured reported in stable condition. Azerbaijan's President Aliyev says his country will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, though this incident comes after Azerbaijan canceled military leave and deployed troops to the border.

Meanwhile, the Israel–Lebanon front is expanding. Hezbollah has increased the volume and pace of its attacks on Israel, especially in the north. Israel is advancing in southern Lebanon, and the first direct ground clashes were reported on 04 March.

Energy remains the focal point of the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (90% reduction in transit), supply storage is nearing capacity in Iraq. In approximately one week, if present conditions continue, Iraq will need to halt oil production. Two more tankers were attacked over the last 24 hours off the coast of Iraq and Oman. Qatar is fully shutting down their liquid natural gas operations. It’s estimated that it would take about two weeks to restart operations, and at least two more weeks to return to full capacity.

Open-source trackers estimate steeply declining launch numbers of ballistic missiles targeting the Gulf states and Israel. Day one of the conflict saw Iran launch some 350 missiles with declining barrages since then. Day two: 175; day three: 120; day four: 50. This is likely due to significant destruction of mobile launchers by the U.S. and Israel and Iran "rationing" their missile stockpile in anticipation of an extended conflict. Drone attacks remain consistent; however, Gulf states continue to intercept the majority of both drones and missiles.

Israel struck the meeting of 88 members of the Supreme Council who were gathering in Qom to decide the next Supreme Leader. As such, no official decision was reached or declared by Iran, though rumors persist that the son of the late Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, was not killed in strikes and is slated to become the next Supreme Leader. This has only been reported by Israeli media and Iranian opposition groups, with no confirmation from Iran itself.

President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide risk insurance and guarantees for shippers and shipping insurance companies to continue moving in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy will escort tankers through the Strait and provide protection.

While Iran continues to attack the Gulf states and Israel, it has increased focus on Iraq and the Kurdish regions after reports emerged that the U.S. CIA has been arming and preparing Kurdish militia for possible ground conflict against the regime. The IRGC claims ground forces entered Iraqi Kurdistan with 200+ drones. While Iranian drone strikes have targeted Kurdish militia around Erbil, there has been no confirmation of Iranian troops in Iraqi Kurdistan. Erbil airport and the U.S. airbase there continue to come under drone attack.

Iran continued to target oil and gas, shipping, and aviation infrastructure in the region primarily with Shahed drones but also ballistic missiles. The Gulf states have intercepted hundreds of projectiles over the past 24 hours, however, some slipped through, causing damage to ports, U.S. embassies, tankers, and energy infrastructure. This has caused closures or suspension of operations at multiple ports and petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Qatar. The airport and U.S. airbase in Erbil, Iraq came under heavy air attack. It remains open but effectively non-operational for commercial traffic.

President Trump outlined four war goals: destroy missiles, annihilate the navy, block nukes, and stop proxy funding. He announced the conflict could go on for four to five weeks and that the U.S. had yet to launch its biggest wave of attacks targeting Iran. At least 17 fuel tanker aircraft left the U.S. headed for the Middle East in the last 24 hours. President Trump did not rule out boots on the ground.

The IRGC now claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed (it had been effectively closed) and threatened any vessels trying to transit. Multiple tankers have been hit both in the Strait and docked at ports, including a U.S. flagged fuel tanker at a port in Bahrain enrolled in the U.S. Navy's Tanker Security Program, a fleet of commercial ships that can supply fuel to the Navy during conflict.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson issued a message on X urging American citizens to leave 14 countries in the region while commercial means remain available. This did not translate into Level 4: Do Not Travel warnings for all of the countries, some of which were already at Level 4. The U.S. embassies in Bahrain and Iraq issued evacuation orders for non-emergency staff and their families.