Global energy is coming under increasing strain as Saudi Arabia was forced to suspend its East-West Pipeline, and the Houthis captured the remainder of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. With approximately 12 million barrels per day flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, including during the daytime, Iran's "Axis of Resistance" has turned its sights on the Arabian Peninsula to exert economic pressure. Over the past month, Brent's price has risen 17.55%, with Brent Crude reaching $107 and diesel in the U.S. exceeding $6 per gallon for the first time ever.

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In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

U.S.–Iran maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen increasingly target Saudi oil facilities. On 09 September, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have struck eight tankers. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), based in Dubai, UAE, confirmed that several merchant vessels were disabled. In addition, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S. bases in Jordan, with the Jordanian Armed Forces claiming to have intercepted 18 of 20 missiles. These attacks are the latest in a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the U.S. and Iran and an extension of the U.S. "tanker for tanker" doctrine where Iranian attacks on commercial ships, and now U.S. naval vessels, elicit American attacks on Iranian tankers.

On 30 August, the United States (U.S.) ended over a month of calm by striking Iranian rocket launchers armed with sea mines on Larak Island. Three Iranian soldiers were killed in the incident, and Iran retaliated with missiles fired at U.S. bases in Jordan. All missiles were either intercepted or posed no threat. The resumption of tit-for-tat exchanges follows Iran increasing its rate of attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using the southern Omani route, having attacked three tankers between 30 and 31 August.

It has been 28 days since the United States (U.S.) and Iran last exchanged fire. Axios reported last night that Secretary Rubio has been telling his foreign counterparts that "for the time being" the U.S. is expected to focus on economic sanctions and renewed diplomacy rather than additional strikes. When combined with yesterday's news that the U.S. is returning Foreign Service Officers (FSO) to U.S. Embassies in the region, the outlook for decreased risk of renewed conflict grows more positive. 

• Global Guardian recommends firms carefully consider travel to the region amid lessened risk of renewed conflict in the near term. 
  
• The 28-day streak appears likely to continue; however, an "October Surprise" from Iran remains a possibility as noted later in this update.
  

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In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

On 11 August, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council made it clear that Iran remains steadfast in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. ends the blockade, releases frozen funds, and conflict ends in Lebanon and Gaza. The statement comes two days after Trump told Axios news that he is prepared to let economic pressure build on Iran, rather than ordering a new military offensive.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the "perimeters of a deal" on the Strait of Hormuz had been agreed to, and that he suspended planned major strikes at the request of Iran and "other Middle Eastern countries" to allow for further negotiations. This was the second weekend in a row where major strikes were called off. Reporting from Reuters suggests U.S. interceptor stockpiles are running low and could be why the escalatory strikes were called off, as the U.S. would not be in a strong position to defend its assets or allies in the region.

• Global Guardian maintains that firms should reconsider non-essential travel to the region as "escalation whiplash" remains constant.
• A resumption of Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the region is possible. This could include the targeting of airports, hotels, power plants, desalination plants, and petroleum facilities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, especially if the U.S. does carry out a previously threatened "massive attack."
  

On 28 July in the evening hours, Iran launched a surprise missile attack against American forces in Jordan, ending a five-day mutual pause on direct attacks. During the lull, Iranian partners in Yemen and Iraq launched strikes against Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. In response, the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia carried out joint air strikes on sites belonging to Iran-backed militia groups across Iraq, including targets in Baghdad, Nineveh, Diyala, Karbala, Kirkuk, Basra, and Wasit, reportedly killing 20.

• Global Guardian maintains that firms should reconsider non-essential travel to the region.
• A resumption of Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the region is possible. This could include the targeting of airports, hotels, power plants, desalination plants, and petroleum facilities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.  

The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate vertically, horizontally, and rhetorically with increasing signs that the United States (U.S.) is poised to launch a major attack on Iran this weekend.

• Global Guardian assesses that major U.S. strikes on Iran are likely to commence after U.S. markets close.
• Global Guardian continues to caution against non-essential travel to the Gulf region and recommends that firms with regional assets confirm business continuity and evacuation plans.
• The U.S. State Department's Worldwide Caution originally issued on 18 July was updated on 22 July to highlight risks from potential airspace disruptions and flight cancellations, indicating imminent activity.