The U.S. military has now struck Iran for 10 straight days, targeting military installations threatening tanker ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and other sites in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Qeshm, and other southern and western areas. Iranian infrastructure was also targeted, including bridges, rail links, telecommunications towers, and water service sites in Hormozgan over this period. As a result of the escalation, the U.S. State Department issued a Worldwide Caution on 18 July (updated on 20 July) stating that "Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation." While there has been no specific or imminent threat identified, the caution advises increased awareness for Americans abroad and in the Middle East. 

MIDDLE EAST | COLOMBIA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Following Iran’s continued targeting of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, on 08 July President Trump declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran. The move came after United States (U.S.) forces struck Iranian coastal sites involved in the attacks on shipping. Since then, the U.S. conducted a second and larger wave of strikes on Iran, spurring a wider Iranian response. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) claims to have struck over 170 Iranian targets in the last 48 hours. The region has returned to a “no war, no peace” paradigm, with the potential to spiral back into full conflict.

One week after two major earthquakes struck northern Venezuela on 24 June 2026, the mismanagement of disaster response by Interim President Delcy Rodríguez’s government is accelerating collapse in public confidence and fueling anti-Chavismo sentiment, increasing the likelihood of anti-government demonstrations and unrest.

Between 21–22 June, American, Iranian, Qatari, and Pakistani officials met in Lake Lucerne, Switzerland to advance talks towards achieving a final nuclear agreement. The Lake Lucerne talks follow the 17 June signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States (U.S.) and Iran. After 18 hours of negotiations, mediators announced a road map to a final deal within 60 days and established four technical working groups covering sanctions, the nuclear file, reconstruction, and economic development, as well as a separate Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. Pakistani officials say that technical talks between the U.S. and Iran will restart early next week. However, gaps are emerging between what Washington and Tehran are saying publicly versus what is being agreed to privately, generating uncertainty around the status of the negotiations. 

On 14 June, the U.S. and Iran agreed to an interim agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal after mediation by Pakistan and Qatar. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have reportedly both electronically signed the framework agreement with Iran’s lead negotiator and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is expected to be signed by VP Vance and Speaker Ghalibaf on 19 June in Geneva, Switzerland. 

CUBA | UKRAINE & RUSSIA | Southeast Asia

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

The current no war no peace paradigm is becoming increasingly unstable. The past two weeks have seen kinetic exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, and now Iran and Israel every two to three days. Iran has shown that it will attack Israel to defend Hezbollah, attack U.S. bases in the Gulf in response to U.S. attacks on its territory, and attack vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz that do not use its "toll booth" system or in response to U.S. blockade enforcement activities.

During early-morning hours (local time) on 08 June, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. Explosions were heard in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj. The strikes were retaliation for three Iranian missile salvos launched at northern Israel during evening hours on 07 June. While all three salvos were successfully intercepted, they were meant to send a message to Israel more than cause damage. Iran was following through on earlier threats to Israel after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier in the day, a move viewed as a violation of the ceasefire in place since April. It marks the first exchange between Israel and Iran since the 08 April ceasefire.

Over the last week, diplomatic efforts have continued amid a marked increase in kinetic activity. U.S. President Donald Trump remains committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz through a temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) but needs terms—including on the nuclear file—that can be presented domestically as a political victory. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek a return to high-intensity conflict, Iran is increasing military pressure by stepping up its responses to U.S. blockade enforcement, raising the risk of miscalculation.