Over the weekend, Iran conducted a flurry of diplomatic activity amid the current stalemate. The U.S. naval blockade continued, with U.S. CENTCOM reporting that it had directed 38 ships to turn around, and Iran still maintains that no direct negotiations can occur under a blockade. Nonetheless, indirect bilateral talks appear to still be ongoing.

A delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan, Oman, and arrived in Russia in the early hours of 27 April. According to an Axios report, Iran’s counterproposal delivered through Pakistani intermediaries did not include the nuclear issue, instead, it focused on ending the dual Strait of Hormuz blockades and ending the war. Per reports, Iran’s talks in Oman centered on "ways to ensure safe transit that is to benefit of all dear neighbors." Iran’s talks in Russia are expected to focus on the nuclear file, with Russia to potentially act as a future interlocutor and agreement guarantor.

Iran’s negotiation strategy is now predicated on formally ending the war before moving to the thornier topics of the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file. With neither side willing to give up its primary bargaining chip of curtailing access to the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue—one of President Trump’s fundamental concerns—is unlikely to be addressed at the negotiating table under the current “no war, no peace” dynamic. The question remains how long this phase can continue without further escalation or one side backing down on key demands. President Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Iran with his top national security and foreign policy team today.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a small negotiating team are reportedly expected to arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, to revive talks. On 22 April, Axios reported that President Trump was willing to give Iran three to five days to return to the negotiation table with a unified position. Iran's outward position over the last several days has been that it would not rejoin talks while the U.S. blockade is in place. At this time, it is unclear if an American negotiating team will also travel to Pakistan. Nonetheless, the reports of Araghchi's trip are a positive signal. 

The issue still remains that both Iran and the United States view each other's demands as surrender terms. This leaves two broad sets of outcomes: The U.S. can keep the diplomatic channel open amid its economic pressure campaign, or it can either resume strikes on Iran or ask Israel to resume the campaign. The status quo option is not without its risks. The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is on shaky ground, and President Trump's shoot-and-kill order on Iranian fast boats laying mines could be tested by Iran, amid growing impatience. With the USS George H.W. Bush now in the region and President Trump facing a 01 May deadline from Congress, there is a real possibility that the United States could end the ceasefire at any moment. 

The conflict has entered a "no war, no peace" stage of strategic ambiguity. With less than four hours until the ceasefire deadline, on the afternoon of 21 April (local time), President Trump announced an indefinite extension, citing internal Iranian divisions and ordering the continuation of the blockade. The extension came after both sides walked away from talks set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The nuclear issue appears to remain the key sticking point amid major internal divisions between Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi. According to Axios, Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to give clear instructions to negotiators, leaving no final authority to settle the disputes between the regime's hardliners and pragmatists.

As negotiations remain in limbo, U.S. military cargo flights have seen a large surge. During the ceasefire, over 800 cargo flights were tracked throughout the region. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) aircraft carrier appears to be north of Madagascar en route to the Arabian Sea, after an onboard aircraft transmitted its position, according to open-source flight tracking data.

With the blockade remaining in place, attritional and economic pressure has been placed on Iran. In the early hours of 22 April, the IRGC Navy attacked two vessels off the coast of Iran, showcasing its initial response to the new "no war, no peace" paradigm. It is unclear how long either side is willing to remain in this phase without escalating to improve leverage. The situation remains volatile. 

Iran said on 20 April that it had no plans for the next round of negotiations amid the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and ships, and that normalizing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could not happen unilaterally because of U.S. actions. The country's leadership also noted that removing enriched uranium stockpiles was never a negotiation option and has not been discussed in talks. Peace talks scheduled for this evening in Islamabad, Pakistan, appear unlikely to occur.

The latest Iranian comments come after U.S. naval forces intercepted and boarded the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, as it tried to exit the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. CENTCOM says it issued warnings over a six-hour period before the USS Spruance fired at its engine room, disabling the ship. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) then boarded and seized the vessel. This is the first reported use of force to maintain the blockade.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following a reversal of the reopening announcements by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A day after he announced that the Strait was open, the IRGC fired on at least two ships in the Gulf, causing them and others to turn back and signaling the Strait remains closed despite the earlier announcement. The Wall Street Journal reported that there is a growing rift in Iran between the hard-line IRGC and current political leadership, with the reversal over the Strait the latest sign of this split.  

Given the diplomatic, political, and military whiplash over the last 72 hours, it is apparent the U.S. and Iran are as far from a deal as they have ever been and the prospects for a return to some form of conflict are high as the ceasefire is set to expire on 22 April. On 19 April, President Trump said the U.S. will destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran if there is no deal and that he is preparing to hit Iran "harder than ever." A resumption of hostilities would likely include attacks on Gulf states.  

On 17 April, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for all commercial vessels (through the Iran-controlled corridor) for the remaining days of the ceasefire. President Trump voiced optimism about a deal in interviews to reporters on 16 April. He said Iran agreed not to acquire a nuclear weapon and that the agreement that was currently being negotiated “goes beyond 20 years.” He said the prospects for a deal with Iran were “looking very good,” adding that the next meeting with the Iranian delegation could take place during the weekend.

A Pakistani diplomat told Reuters that backchannel diplomacy via Pakistan is ongoing, with a possibility that the next bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Iran involves the signing of a memorandum of understanding, an agreement on principles, before the technical points are agreed upon.

Israel and Lebanon also agreed to a ceasefire lasting 10 days that went into effect on 16 April at 5:00 pm ET. The two countries held in-person talks in Washington, DC on 14 April for the first time in 34 years, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. President Trump also announced the invitation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House as part of a peace push. Of note, the Israel–Lebanon joint statement's preamble included a tacit end to the mutual state of war that has existed since 1948: "Israel and Lebanon affirm that the two countries are not at war," stating that the two countries will continue direct negotiations toward a formal peace agreement.

Much like the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, this deal allows Israel to maintain its buffer zone (around 8% of Lebanese territory) and allows it to conduct "all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks." On 17 April, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said that Israel’s goals for its war against Hezbollah, namely the demilitarization of southern Lebanon, had yet to be realized and would need to either be accomplished diplomatically or through a resumption of fighting after the ceasefire.

The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is as much about the Iran negotiations as it is about Lebanon. Iran has maintained that a ceasefire in Lebanon is a precondition to progress on talks with the U.S. In this light, the Lebanon ceasefire can be seen as calling Iran's bluff. With this obstacle removed, it will now be clearer if there is room to settle the nuclear issue diplomatically.

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On 15 April, Iran's IRGC threatened to forcibly halt exports through the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea if the U.S. blockade continues. This threat comes after two days of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. U.S. CENTCOM said on 14 April that no ships had breached the blockade and that six vessels had so far complied with direction to return to Iranian ports; however, there are conflicting accounts regarding tanker traffic. During the early morning hours of 15 April, Iran's Fars news agency claimed that an Iranian VLCC tanker on the U.S. sanctions list was able to enter the Strait of Hormuz from open water and dock at an Iranian port. 

Despite the ongoing blockade and Iranian threats, the ceasefire appears to be holding. There have been no attacks on Gulf states since the initial violations reported in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Airspace has largely been reopened in the region, except for Kuwait, and multiple airlines are ending their war-related suspensions. The ceasefire is set to expire on 21 April.

Comments made by President Trump on 14 April to ABC News' Jonathan Karl indicate that the next two days will be critical with the U.S. either walking away from further conflict or reaching a deal with Iran. Trump said, "I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," and that "...I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild. They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals. They’re gone, no longer with us." A second round of negotiations may take place this week in Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey. Nuclear weapons remain the sticking point.

During the evening of 11 April, U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced the failure of negotiations with Iran to produce an agreement. Reports indicate that the U.S. proposed a partial release of frozen Iranian funds and the end to the conflict in exchange for a 20-year freeze on Iranian enrichment, the removal of all enriched material from Iran, and toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After announcing the failure of talks, Vice President Vance explained that the primary sticking point was the nuclear issue: "We need to see an affirmative commitment that [the Iranians] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."

On 12 April, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy "will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that it will implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on 13 April at 10:00 am ET. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations operating in Iranian coastal areas, including ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Assets from the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with additional destroyers, are expected to support enforcement operations.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering resuming limited strikes on Iran in conjunction with the blockade to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. This report comes as more U.S. military assets have been transferred to the region, and two naval ships have transited the Strait. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are on their way to the region.

By starting de-mining operations and implementing a blockade all under the cover of a ceasefire, the U.S. is incrementally asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, eroding Iran's main point of leverage. Meanwhile, the blockade will put direct economic pressure on Iran and indirect pressure on China to push Iran to return to the negotiating table.

Negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on 11 April. Per open-source flight tracking, the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is en route to Pakistan. Talks are expected to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between the two separate delegations. Direct U.S.–Iran fighting has paused, but the status of the ceasefire and of the proposed talks in general is precarious.

Ceasefire violations and the inclusion of Lebanon are major pressure points. Iran is conditioning talks on Lebanon being included in the ceasefire, while the U.S. and Israel reject that completely. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said it may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included. Iranian state media claims that the Iranian delegation has yet to depart for Pakistan, citing ongoing fighting in Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under pressure from the United States to scale back military operations in Lebanon. During a call from President Trump, Netanyahu “agreed to be a helpful partner.” Following the call, the prime minister ordered the Israeli government to start direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The previous day, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets all across Lebanon in what it labeled "Operation Eternal Darkness." The strikes killed over 300 people and injured over 1,100. The Lebanese government declared a day of national mourning the following day on 09 April.

New polling has emerged indicating that public opinion could act as a force to stymie the conflict resolution process. In a YouGov poll, an equal proportion of 34% of Americans believe that no side won the war and that the U.S. won the war, with only 14% seeing Iran as the victor. Meanwhile, in an Israeli poll conducted by Walla and Maariv, 46% of Israelis believe the U.S. and Israel did not achieve victory, with 63% of polled Israelis saying they were dissatisfied with the outcome of the war.

Meanwhile, the precondition for the ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, has not been fulfilled. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump voiced frustrations with Iran’s compliance, saying that "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have.” Four tankers and three bulk carriers crossed through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday, making a total of twelve vessels since the start of the ceasefire—down from upwards of 100 daily in peacetime.

On 07 April, just before the 8 pm ET deadline, President Trump announced on Truth Social a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran agreed to the initial terms and stated that safe passage would be allowed through the Strait during the two-week ceasefire in coordination with Iranian armed forces. Iran is seeking to collect $2 million per vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Annual revenue from such fees could be more than double Iran's revenue from oil and gas exports. The two-week ceasefire will allow the U.S. and Iran to fully negotiate terms of a lasting deal which could prove mutually beneficial, as President Trump told ABC News' Jonathan Karl this morning that "We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it—also securing it from lots of other people.”

President Trump noted that the ten-point plan proposed by Iran "is a workable basis on which to negotiate." Iran's Tasnim state media claims the U.S. agreed to the following conditions as a basis for negotiations. However, it is unlikely that many of these points are agreed upon:

1. The U.S. should commit in principle to guarantee non-aggression.
2. Iran's continued control of the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Accepting enrichment.
4. Lifting all primary sanctions.
5. Lifting all secondary sanctions.
6. Termination of all Security Council resolutions.
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions.
8. Payment of damages to Iran.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Lebanese Hezbollah.

A follow-up Truth Social post this morning shed additional light on a potential agreement, with President Trump saying, "The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” While at odds with Iran's ten-point plan, collaboration with Iran to remove the buried highly enriched Uranium and Iran's agreement to forgo future enrichment would be a significant development in meeting one of the U.S. and Israel's primary goals to never allow a nuclear-armed Iran.

Despite the ceasefire announcement, multiple drone and missile attacks were recorded targeting Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past several hours. These were likely retaliation for attacks on an Iranian refinery on Lavan Island and an unspecified target on Sirri Island earlier on 08 April, though Iran did not specifically blame them, instead saying there was an "attack by enemies." It remains unclear who carried out the strikes on those two Iranian islands.

The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq agreed to abide by the two-week ceasefire, and both Iraq and Syria have reopened airspace as of today. While Israel has agreed to stop attacking Iran, it continues to strike at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.