According to a 31 March report from The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has told aides he is willing to end the campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and under de facto control of Iran. This would keep the conflict within the four-to-six-week window originally laid out and suggests U.S. boots on the ground are now unlikely. President Trump will address the nation tonight at 9 pm ET where it is expected he will announce a timeline to end the conflict.
President Trump made several public comments over the last 48 hours suggesting the campaign is nearing its end, saying the U.S. offensive in Iran could conclude “in two to three weeks,” adding that the United States would be “leaving soon." The question of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz would not be up to the U.S. to answer, according to President Trump. "The U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump says of allies. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” This may be strategic messaging to other countries to get involved now, with the U.S., or be forced into action later should Iran continue to effectively close the Strait.
Other administration officials amplified messaging around military objectives being largely met. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 31 March that the main goal of preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon had been achieved. He also clarified that the objectives were the destruction of Iran's air force, the destruction of its navy, the "severe diminishing" of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories. He echoed President Trump's timeline, saying the war could be over in a matter of weeks.
While Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the U.S. and Israel to end the conflict, it remains to be seen if they will give up their newfound control of the Strait should the U.S. withdraw. They may continue to extract concessions from tankers depending on their allegiances and target those belonging to U.S. allies who do not make significant changes. Iran has previously demanded the Gulf states no longer allow U.S. bases or troops on their territory. They could hold tankers servicing Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia hostage unless they bow to this demand.
Situation Report
- 01 April: The Qatar military confirms Iranian drone hit an oil tanker off its coast with two other drones successfully intercepted and shot down.
- 31 March: Iran lists 18 U.S. companies, including Google, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla, which will be considered as legitimate targets for retaliation, claiming that a company’s assets in the region will be destroyed for every strike against Iran, beginning on Wednesday, 01 April at 8 pm Tehran time. Iran has made similar threats in the past several weeks, stating that it considers multiple U.S. firms legitimate targets but has so far not followed through.
- 31 March: The Indonesian government announced fuel purchases are limited to 50 liters per vehicle per day and mandates work-from-home for civil servants every Friday for the next two months.
- 31 March: Iranian drone strike causes major fire at Kuwait International Airport fuel tanks; no injuries reported.
- 30 March: A fire was extinguished on a Kuwaiti oil tanker off the coast of Dubai, local authorities say, following earlier drone attack.
- 30 March: NATO air defenses intercept Iranian missile over Turkey.
- 30 March: The UAE approves $300 million stimulus package for Dubai’s business sector to keep economy afloat amid ongoing strikes and disruptions.
- 30 March: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports that Ukraine has made several “landmark” agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, including on energy and defense cooperation, with future agreements expected to be reached soon with Jordan and Kuwait.
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace closed
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iran: airspace closed
- Iraq: airspace closed
- Israel: airspace partially open/restricted
- Israel's wartime restrictions on the country's airspace are expected to remain in place through 16 April, subject to security developments.
- Jordan: airspace open
- Kuwait: airspace closed
- Lebanon: airspace partially open/restricted
- Oman: airspace open
- Qatar: airspace partially closed/restricted
- Qatar Airways is operating a limited network of 93 destinations planned through 15 April 2026.
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace heavily restricted
- UAE: airspace open
- Experiencing significant disruptions, flight rerouting, and potential for short-notice closures due to the conflict and missile threats.
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