Negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on 11 April. Per open-source flight tracking, the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is en route to Pakistan. Talks are expected to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between the two separate delegations. Direct U.S.–Iran fighting has paused, but the status of the ceasefire and of the proposed talks in general is precarious.
Ceasefire violations and the inclusion of Lebanon are major pressure points. Iran is conditioning talks on Lebanon being included in the ceasefire, while the U.S. and Israel reject that completely. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said it may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included. Iranian state media claims that the Iranian delegation has yet to depart for Pakistan, citing ongoing fighting in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under pressure from the United States to scale back military operations in Lebanon. During a call from President Trump, Netanyahu “agreed to be a helpful partner.” Following the call, the prime minister ordered the Israeli government to start direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The previous day, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets all across Lebanon in what it labeled "Operation Eternal Darkness." The strikes killed over 300 people and injured over 1,100. The Lebanese government declared a day of national mourning the following day on 09 April.
New polling has emerged indicating that public opinion could act as a force to stymie the conflict resolution process. In a YouGov poll, an equal proportion of 34% of Americans believe that no side won the war and that the U.S. won the war, with only 14% seeing Iran as the victor. Meanwhile, in an Israeli poll conducted by Walla and Maariv, 46% of Israelis believe the U.S. and Israel did not achieve victory, with 63% of polled Israelis saying they were dissatisfied with the outcome of the war.
Meanwhile, the precondition for the ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, has not been fulfilled. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump voiced frustrations with Iran’s compliance, saying that "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have.” Four tankers and three bulk carriers crossed through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday, making a total of twelve vessels since the start of the ceasefire—down from upwards of 100 daily in peacetime.
Situation Report
- Over the last 48 hours, a number of countries have opened their airspace, including Bahrain, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Kuwait reportedly planned to gradually restore suspended routes during ceasefire, however, Kuwaiti authorities confirmed Kuwait International Airport’s ongoing closure amid interceptions of incoming projectile fire.
- 10 April: A Liquified Petroleum Gas tanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz was turned back by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy.
- 09 April: The first non-Iranian oil tanker transits the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire.
- 09 April: Iraqi Kurdistan’s Regional Government reported several drone attacks, likely targeting Harir base.
- 09 April: Kuwait said its air defenses are engaging drones that entered the country’s airspace. A statement attributed to the Defense Ministry spokesperson said “a number of vital facilities” were being targeted.
- 08 April: U.S. diplomats in Baghdad were “ambushed” by Iranian-aligned militia groups. While details are not clear, the Iraqi ambassador was summoned for a formal complaint.
- 08 April: Multiple reports describe Israel carrying out its largest coordinated strike wave across Lebanon since this round of war began, hitting more than 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites across Beirut and other areas. The strikes are reported to have killed upwards of 300 people and injured over 1,200.
Airspace Status
- Iran: airspace closed
- Kuwait: airspace effectively closed/heavily restricted
- Lebanon: airspace restricted
- Qatar: airspace restricted
- Bahrain: airspace open
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iraq: airspace open
- Israel: airspace open
- Jordan: airspace open
- Oman: airspace open
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace open
- UAE: airspace open
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