On 01 April, President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation framing Operation Epic Fury as "nearing completion" and reiterated that the military will target Iran’s electric facilities if no deal is made with Iranian leadership to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded within hours with a barrage of attacks on Gulf states and a formal vow of "more crushing, broader and more destructive" strikes.
In the 36 hours since the speech, both the U.S. and Iran have escalated their targeting. The U.S. bombed the Karaj bridge outside Tehran, the Pasteur Institute, a pharmaceutical plant, and a steel factory. Iran has since targeted or claimed to target an Oracle data center in Dubai and an Amazon AWS center in Bahrain. In Kuwait, Iran set multiple units of the Mina Al-Ahmadi port refinery on fire and damaged a water and desalination plant. It also struck the Habshan gas plant in Abu Dhabi, causing a fire. Iran has also vowed to strike energy and telecom infrastructure in the Gulf should the U.S. attack power plants.
An 02 April Truth Social post by President Trump stated that "Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!". This indicates the 06 April deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and come to a deal with the U.S. is still in effect.
Forecast
The next two to three weeks are likely to see escalatory strikes by both Iran and the U.S. as Iran has rejected repeated claims that it is seeking a deal and offered only escalation in response to U.S. demands. As Iran is unlikely to agree to a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz by 06 April, President Trump may follow through on his threat to bomb Iran's power plants though he has twice pushed back that deadline. Should the U.S. follow through, Iran is then prepared to escalate and expand its targeting of power and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf states.
While a U.S. invasion and occupation of Kharg Island or other islands closest to the Strait remains possible, the administration's goal of sticking to the four-to-six-week conflict timeline suggest "boots on the ground" are unlikely. The U.S. continues to move forces into the region. The USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier is reportedly being deployed to the region to replace the damaged USS Gerald R. Ford. Additional aircraft including the A-10 Warthog have also been moved to the region.
The additional force buildup in the region, taken with The Wall Street Journal report that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is "preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force," suggests the conflict is likely to intensify. Any Gulf states that deploy force against Iran will be targeted more heavily than before. Firms operating in the UAE should prepare for significant disruptions should the UAE formally enter the conflict.
Situation Report
- 03 April: Ukraine's President Zelenskyy offers country's assistance in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- 03 April: Iranian military says it targeted a U.S. weapons warehouse in Jordan, an armored brigade in Kuwait, and an aluminum smelting plant in Bahrain in drone strikes.
- 03 April: The UK confirms deployment of Rapid Sentry air defense system to Kuwait.
- 03 April: Fire burns at Habshan gas plant in Abu Dhabi following Iranian strike, UAE officials say; operations suspended.
- 03 April: Several places of worship in Dubai temporarily close due to conflict.
- 02 April: Dubai's government says Iran's claim of attack on Oracle data center is "fake news."
- 02 April: Multiple U.S. banks reacted to threats in Europe from Iranian-backed groups by instituting remote work.
- 02 April: The UK announced 40 countries had joined it to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace closed
- Iran: airspace closed
- Iraq: airspace closed
- Kuwait: airspace closed
- Qatar: airspace partially closed/heavily restricted
- Israel: airspace heavily restricted
- Syria: airspace heavily restricted
- Lebanon: airspace restricted
- UAE: airspace restricted
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Jordan: airspace open
- Oman: airspace open
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
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