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During the evening of 11 April, U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced the failure of negotiations with Iran to produce an agreement. Reports indicate that the U.S. proposed a partial release of frozen Iranian funds and the end to the conflict in exchange for a 20-year freeze on Iranian enrichment, the removal of all enriched material from Iran, and toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After announcing the failure of talks, Vice President Vance explained that the primary sticking point was the nuclear issue: "We need to see an affirmative commitment that [the Iranians] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."

On 12 April, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy "will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that it will implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on 13 April at 10:00 am ET. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations operating in Iranian coastal areas, including ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Assets from the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with additional destroyers, are expected to support enforcement operations.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering resuming limited strikes on Iran in conjunction with the blockade to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. This report comes as more U.S. military assets have been transferred to the region, and two naval ships have transited the Strait. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are on their way to the region.

By starting de-mining operations and implementing a blockade all under the cover of a ceasefire, the U.S. is incrementally asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, eroding Iran's main point of leverage. Meanwhile, the blockade will put direct economic pressure on Iran and indirect pressure on China to push Iran to return to the negotiating table.

Situation Report

  • 12 April: Tracking data reveals an abnormally large number of U.S. military transport aircraft heading for the Middle East.
  • 12 April: IRGC claims that if the U.S. blockades the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will direct the Houthis to shut down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
  • 12 April: A merchant vessel escapes a hijacking attempt southwest of Yemen.
  • 12 April: CENTCOM reports U.S. forces will begin blockading maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 10:00 am ET on 13 April.
  • 11 April: Talks between U.S. and Iranian delegations take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. 
  • 11 April: The Lebanese presidency announced that a phone call took place between Lebanon’s ambassador to Washington and her Israeli counterpart. Both sides agreed to meet in Washington on 14 April to discuss a ceasefire and a timeline for formal peace negotiations under American sponsorship.
  • 11 April: CENTCOM announces that it began a mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that additional U.S. forces, “including underwater drones, will join the clearance effort in the coming days.”

Airspace Status

  • Iran: airspace closed
  • Kuwait: airspace effectively closed/heavily restricted
  • Lebanon: airspace restricted
  • Qatar: airspace restricted
  • Syria: airspace restricted
  • Bahrain: airspace open
  • Cyprus: airspace open
  • Egypt: airspace open
  • Iraq: airspace open
  • Israel: airspace open
  • Jordan: airspace open
  • Oman: airspace open
  • Saudi Arabia: airspace open/reduced flights
  • UAE: airspace open/reduced flights

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