Despite recent diplomatic activity, Global Guardian assesses that kinetic hostilities with Iran are likely to resume as early as next week, following the United States midterm elections on 03 November.
Despite recent diplomatic activity, Global Guardian assesses that kinetic hostilities with Iran are likely to resume as early as next week, following the United States midterm elections on 03 November.
On 18 October, United States (U.S.) diplomatic missions in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Iraq, Israel, Bahrain, UAE, and Yemen issued security alerts warning of the broader threat posed by Iran, shifting attention away from the Houthi-Saudi conflict and toward the risk of a wider regional war. It’s possible this new advisory was issued in relation to the Al Jazeera-reported U.S. retaliatory strikes on IRGC-N Konarak Naval Base on 18 October that the U.S. later denied. It is also possible that the embassy alerts are an indicator that phase II of the war will resume in the coming days or weeks.
Youth-led protests that began in France in mid-September as a student-focused movement have tapped into a European-wide vein of anti-government sentiment that is now poised to spark unrest across that continent. Travelers should expect serious disruptions to normal travel and operations in Paris and the surrounding Île-de-France region, as well as in other major cities throughout France. Travelers should also exercise increased caution and avoid crowds in Lisbon, Porto, Milan, Rome, Madrid, and Tirana. People and organizations with planned travel anywhere in Europe should assess their potential exposure to large-scale protests and their associated risks, as these protests are likely to expand.
The Houthi conflict is primed for further escalation as Saudi Arabia attempts to impose costs on Sana'a. On 13 October, amid the Houthis' coercive campaign against Saudi energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, the Saudi-led coalition issued an evacuation order to Yemen Petroleum Company sites and the Al-Sabaha power plant in Sana'a. The Saudis then proceeded with a major wave of airstrikes on Houthi energy sites around Sana’a.
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During the late evening hours local time on 10 October, Saudi Arabia announced that a projectile struck near Dammam's King Fahd International Airport. The attack came a day after Dhaifallah Al-Shami, a member of the Political Bureau of the Houthi movement, issued the following threat on Al Araby TV: "If Saudi Arabia does not stop its blockade and bombardment of our country, we will not limit ourselves to targeting Riyadh Airport.” This marks a significant escalation in the already destructive targeting of Saudi Arabia by Houthi drones and missiles.
The war in Yemen is escalating along with an increase of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Following the 04 October initiation of a Saudi-backed Yemen counteroffensive, threats to Saudi Arabia are likely to escalate as the Houthis seek to increase the economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia. Global Guardian does not assess that upcoming major international conferences, including the Future Investment Initiative (FII) Conference, will be deliberately targeted by the Houthis. However, the Houthis have already intensified their cross-border attacks on Saudi airports, including three recent strikes on Riyadh King Khalid International Airport (RUH), and further attacks are likely in the coming days and weeks.
The Houthis’ primary targets in Saudi Arabia are oil and gas infrastructure and airports. Excluding the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran, the main threats facing travelers visiting Saudi Arabia are conflict-related flight delays and falling debris from interceptions. Saudi interceptors have largely been successful, but the Saudi government is censoring media around these events making it difficult to verify Houthi strikes. Repeated successful strikes on Saudi cities would indicate that the Houthi anti-Saudi strategy has shifted, raising the risks to personnel on the ground.
Two months ago, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva looked set to win Brazil's presidential election and earn an unprecedented fourth term. However, with less than a week until the first round of voting, a far-reaching corruption scandal has once again struck Brazilian politics, tightening the polling gap of an election that will dictate the direction of Brazilian security policy and the Supreme Court.
Persian Gulf oil exports in September reached approximately 80% of prewar levels, nearing 13 million barrels per day. The increase is largely due to Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Oil Company following Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's model of using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, Riyadh exported 6 million barrels per day in September, the highest volume since the war began. In addition, after being damaged and taken offline on 10 September, Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline resumed operations on 22 September and is currently operating at 3.5 million barrels a day.
There are several possible indications that the conflict in the Middle East is imminently set to expand. On 19 September, the United States Department of State issued a region-wide security alert for the Middle East, warning Americans that the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could “escalate rapidly,” also notifying travelers that flights may be impacted by the fighting. The warning comes after the Houthis attacked Riyadh for the first time, hitting a fuel storage tank at the airport. Airspace was briefly disrupted.
