Israel and the United States continued to strike hundreds of targets in Iran with heavy strikes reported across Tehran. Israeli officials claim to have destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles and around 200 ballistic missile launchers as the U.S. continued to strike Iranian naval targets. President Trump said the bombing would continue "throughout the week or as long as necessary.”  

On the diplomatic front, President Trump told The Atlantic that Iran wants to resume negotiations with the U.S. after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them.” Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, told his Omani counterpart in a phone call that Tehran is open to any serious efforts at de-escalation. While these channels are open, it is unclear who in Iran has the authority to make an agreement. Meanwhile, the UAE has closed its embassy in Iran and withdrew its ambassador and all diplomats in response to the regime’s ongoing missile and drone attacks targeting the UAE. 

Overnight, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened early Sunday morning to hit Iran with unprecedented force after Tehran warned it would step up attacks in retaliation for the killing of its supreme leader. Iranian President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi from the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, will temporarily govern the country. It is still unclear who will replace the Supreme Leader, though it is likely that a successor has been appointed in secret. 

Death tolls are rising across the GCC and Israel with at least three in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one in Kuwait, and 11 in Israel, following continuous missile/drone strikes in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Israel. Iran claims to now have struck 27 U.S. bases across the region. While delivering rhetorical support, Iran's regional proxies have yet to fully activate. 

Iran will continue to target key traveler-focused assets in the Gulf region such as luxury hotels, airports, and oil & gas commercial compounds should they choose to escalate.

 Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Lion's Roar by Israel, Iran retaliated across the region by launching medium and short-range ballistic missiles and Shahed drones at U.S. bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain. Most projectiles were intercepted. There were multiple instances of falling debris from intercepted missiles striking buildings, landing on people, and catching buildings on fire. In Bahrain, a high-rise building was struck by a Shahed drone, possibly by accident or due to signal jamming. A similar incident happened in Dubai when the parking/entrance area of the Palm Hotel was hit by a Shahed drone, leading to multiple injuries but no fatalities. These types of attacks will continue across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. 

 President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during earlier strikes. This has not been confirmed by Iran, but there has been no visual or audio evidence produced by Iran that he is still alive. Additional reports suggest members of his family were also killed. It is likely that Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is now in charge.  

During mid-morning hours local time on 28 February 2026, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes against Iran. President Trump then confirmed U.S. involvement in “major combat operations,” which are ongoing. Based on commentary from both Israel and the U.S., this is going to be a sustained military campaign targeting Iranian military and political leadership, military-industrial assets, and wide-ranging military targets—including nuclear sites—across Iran, with the goal of destroying command and control structures, degrading offensive and defensive capabilities, and ultimately bringing about regime change. Multiple U.S. embassies have issued shelter-in-place warnings while most of the region has closed airspace. Airlines have cancelled flights in response. Iran vowed a "crushing response" in retaliation and has targeted military bases in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

• Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders.
• If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
• Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.

As of 27 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst a continued U.S. military buildup in the region, as yet unsuccessful negotiations, and other indicators and warnings suggesting imminent strikes. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following:

• Avoid non-essential travel to Israel. Consider leaving Israel while commercial flight options remain available.
• Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
• Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.

As of 26 February 2026, the situation in Mexico has stabilized. Late on 24 February, the state government of Jalisco lifted the "Code Red", reopening public transportation, the municipal government, and schools across the state. In Puerto Vallarta, commercial flights resumed in earnest. At the same time, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico lifted its shelter-in-place order but maintained a curfew for government staff in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzmán (Jalisco), and Tijuana (Baja California). This curfew was lifted late on 25 February.

The Mexican government has deployed thousands of troops and federal officers to impacted areas to shore up security, dissuade violence, and bring peace of mind to the residents and visitors to those communities. In Quintana Roo, the governor deployed some 10,000 personnel, highlighting the seriousness of maintaining security in tourist areas which are vital to the Mexican economy.

On 22 February 2026, Mexican military and law enforcement agents undertook an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco to capture (or kill) Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and the most wanted man in both Mexico and the U.S. He was the head of the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico. El Mencho, along with several other key leaders within the CJNG, were killed or captured in the operation, which was supported by U.S. intelligence. 

Following the operation were widespread shootouts and cartel blockades across multiple states in Mexico, starting in Jalisco and radiating outward as the news spread. Criminal actors hijacked and burned vehicles, attacked gas stations and small businesses, deployed tire spikes on roadways, and engaged security forces in multiple armed confrontations. Multiple airlines cancelled flights into Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and Mazatlán out of an abundance of caution. While the violence began in Jalisco state, there were over 250 confirmed blockades in 22 states. Authorities indicated nearly all roadblocks were cleared as of early morning hours on 23 February. 

Municipal governments and schools in multiple states were closed on Monday, 23 February, amid ongoing concerns of violence. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued multiple alerts to U.S. citizens to shelter-in-place. Thelatest alertestablishes remote-work and shelter-in-place orders for U.S. government personnel for 23 February in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzman (Jalisco), Cancun (Quintana Roo), Playa del Carmen (Quintana Roo), Cozumel (Quintana Roo), Reynosa (Tamaulipas state), and Tijuana (Baja California). 

Large-scale disruptions are a common retaliatory tactic used by criminal groups after high-level arrests or leadership targeting. The intent is to create operational chaos, slow security force deployments, and pressure authorities regarding detained figures. A similarly disruptive but more localized version of this happened in Culiacan, Sinaloa in 2019 during an attempted arrest of Ovidio Guzman, one of the sons of El Chapo. He was released from custody after more than 700 cartel gunmen laid siege to the jail where he was being held. 

As of 20 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst massive U.S. military buildup in the region, stalling negotiations, and increasingly concerning statements from American, European, and Iranian officials. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following: 

• Avoid non-essential travel to Israel.
• Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
• Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.

MEXICO | TAIWAN

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Middle East | Russia-Ukraine WaR

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.