The current no war no peace paradigm is becoming increasingly unstable. The past two weeks have seen kinetic exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, and now Iran and Israel every two to three days. Iran has shown that it will attack Israel to defend Hezbollah, attack U.S. bases in the Gulf in response to U.S. attacks on its territory, and attack vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz that do not use its "toll booth" system or in response to U.S. blockade enforcement activities.
During early-morning hours (local time) on 08 June, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. Explosions were heard in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj. The strikes were retaliation for three Iranian missile salvos launched at northern Israel during evening hours on 07 June. While all three salvos were successfully intercepted, they were meant to send a message to Israel more than cause damage. Iran was following through on earlier threats to Israel after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier in the day, a move viewed as a violation of the ceasefire in place since April. It marks the first exchange between Israel and Iran since the 08 April ceasefire.
Over the last week, diplomatic efforts have continued amid a marked increase in kinetic activity. U.S. President Donald Trump remains committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz through a temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) but needs terms—including on the nuclear file—that can be presented domestically as a political victory. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek a return to high-intensity conflict, Iran is increasing military pressure by stepping up its responses to U.S. blockade enforcement, raising the risk of miscalculation.
Over the last week, the diplomatic track has gained momentum with a major expansion of diplomatic activity across several channels. While the details are not completely certain, the known confines of a deal are as follows.
An outbreak of the rare Bundibugyo species of the Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring Uganda is challenging regional disease control capabilities. Ongoing conflict and other humanitarian crises in the region have contributed to a delay in the outbreak’s detection and continue to complicate mitigation and containment efforts. While the risk of this outbreak reaching the level of a pandemic is exceedingly low, it will likely persist in the DRC–Uganda border area for weeks or months to come. Policies related to response and containment efforts are likely to disrupt travel to and through the region into the medium term.
The ceasefire has now reached six weeks—longer than the hot phase of the conflict—and an agreement remains elusive. Tehran's terms keep on moving farther away from Washington's, making a diplomatic solution increasingly unlikely. The U.S. would like to return to the pre-war status quo with Iran's military complex weakened and its nuclear ambitions constrained by an agreement that extracts Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU), pauses enrichment for 20 years, and dismantles its nuclear infrastructure. Having survived Operation Epic Fury, the regime wants to set the conditions to prevent future military intervention by locking in its gains, specifically, de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, even if this results in renewed conflict.
On 18 May, President Trump announced via Truth Social that a planned U.S. military strike on Iran, scheduled for 19 May, had been called off. According to the President, the decision followed direct requests from three Gulf heads of state—Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim, Saudi Crown Prince MBS, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE say they were not aware of any imminent planned strike. President Trump also made it clear that this is not a broad deescalation effort, and on 19 May, told reporters that the postponement of strikes was time-limited: "I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time."
The strike postponement comes as Iran's newest 18 May proposal is more maximalist than prior proposals. Reuters reports that Iran's position now includes ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, war reparations, an end to the U.S. naval blockade and exit of U.S. forces from bases near Iran, a lifting of sanctions, and a release of frozen assets. Tehran continues to refuse to discuss the nuclear file.
Also, on 18 May, Iran announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) that it says will oversee transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is attempting to formalize its control over the Strait of Hormuz to make it impossible to return to the pre-war status quo. On 20 May, two Chinese and one South Korean tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly with Iranian permission, in a sign of Iran's growing control over the waterway.
According to Kann News, joint U.S.–Israel preparations are complete to restart military operations in Iran. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have now spoken twice in the last few days, and Netanyahu has missed a court hearing and is set to miss an important vote on dissolving the Israeli parliament scheduled for 20 May, citing security developments.
Global Guardian assesses a roughly even chance of a return to hostilities within the next two weeks.
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The situation in the Middle East remains in a strategic deadlock as diplomatic momentum has stalled. Over the weekend, Iran presented a counteroffer that did not include the nuclear file. Iranian negotiators have outlined five preconditions for any talks on nuclear enrichment, including: ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon; lifting sanctions; compensation for damages caused by the war; and acceptance of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. These demands are widely seen as non-starters and are increasingly frustrating President Trump, who on 11 May described the ceasefire as being on “life support” and Iran’s written response as “a piece of garbage.” Later that day, CNN reported that some in the White House are warming to the idea of military escalation as a means to break the deadlock.
On the evening of 13 May (local time), President Trump and several cabinet members arrived in Beijing, China, for a high-level bilateral summit. The visit follows meetings between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Chinese officials in Beijing on 06 May. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be among the topics discussed and would be of mutual benefit to both the United States and China. No U.S.-initiated escalation is expected until after the conclusion of the state visit on 15 May.
Meanwhile, the three-week extension of the U.S.-brokered Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is set to expire on 17 May. Reports indicate that Israeli preparations for an expanded ground operation in southern Lebanon have been completed but are pending political authorization. Lebanese and Israeli officials are scheduled to meet for direct negotiations in Washington, DC on 14–15 May. Given the diminishing returns of the ceasefire for Israel amid improved Hezbollah drone tactics, and Lebanon’s insistence that a stable ceasefire must precede broader peace negotiations, little progress is expected.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) secretly conducted strikes against Iran. While the UAE has not publicly acknowledged these actions, they would mark the first known instance of an Arab country participating in offensive combat operations against Iran during the war. This development underscores that Iran’s targeting of the UAE is likely to intensify beyond levels seen in the previous phase of the conflict should hostilities resume.
In the evening hours of 05 May, President Trump halted "Project Freedom" just 36 hours after its initiation, citing diplomatic reasons. This initiative was aimed at reviving the free flow of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The operation included guided missile destroyers as well as over 100 manned and unmanned aircraft for overwatch to create a security corridor on the south side of the Strait.
The past 24 hours have seen three major security events spanning the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East. Each underscores the risks to travelers, business continuity, and infrastructure. While the frequency and intensity of these threats appear to be growing each year, there are concrete steps corporate security teams can take to mitigate risks for everyone from the CEO and Board of Directors to traveling employees and office personnel. These can include executive protection, secure transportation, residential security teams, emergency response capabilities, and security assessments.
