--- title: June Risk Barometer description: Review the global threats, geopolitical hotspots, and important events our team of intelligence analysts is watching closely this month. image: https://www.globalguardian.com/hubfs/GG_Monthly_RiskBarometer-1.png --- [+1 (703) 566-9463](tel:+17035669463) | [Emergency Support](https://www.globalguardian.com//emergency-support) [![GG Logo Main White](https://www.globalguardian.com/hs-fs/hubfs/GlobalGuardian_Oct2019/Logos/GG%20Logo%20Main%20White.png?width=208&height=45&name=GG%20Logo%20Main%20White.png "GG Logo Main White")](https://globalguardian.com) - [Corporate ](https://www.globalguardian.com/corporate-solutions) - [Personal ](https://www.globalguardian.com/personal-solutions) - [Government](https://www.globalguardian.com/government-solutions) - [Outcomes](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies) - [ Travel Security ](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies?topic=Traveler%20Security) - [ Executive Protection ](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies?topic=Executive%20Protection%20and%20Transportation) - [ Emergency Response ](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies?topic=Emergency%20Response) - [ Medical Assistance ](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies?topic=Medical%20Assistance) - [ Event Security ](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies?topic=Event%20Security) - [ Video Surveillance ](https://www.globalguardian.com/case-studies?topic=Asset%20Security) - Learn - [ Global Digest ](https://www.globalguardian.com/global-digest) - [ Newsroom ](https://www.globalguardian.com/newsroom) - [ Webinars ](https://www.globalguardian.com/media-room#t4) - [ Global Guardian Academy ](https://academy.globalguardian.com/) - [ FAQ ](https://www.globalguardian.com/faq) - Company - [ About Global Guardian ](https://www.globalguardian.com/about-global-guardian) - [ Executive Leadership ](https://www.globalguardian.com/executive-leadership) - [ Menu of Services ](https://www.globalguardian.com/service-menu) - [ Global Coverage ](https://www.globalguardian.com/global-coverage) - [ Contact Us ](https://www.globalguardian.com/contact) - [ Careers ](https://www.globalguardian.com/careers) [![Request Security](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/2233164/aecafd49-7abe-4a80-95c2-e37dbbacda44.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/2233164/aecafd49-7abe-4a80-95c2-e37dbbacda44) # June Risk Barometer June 18, 2025 | [Security Alerts](https://www.globalguardian.com/newsroom/topic/security-alerts) [![Share on Facebook](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/facebook-24x24.png)](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dfacebook) [![Share on LinkedIn](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dlinkedin) [![Share on Twitter](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dtwitter&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dtwitter&source=tweetbutton&text=June%20Risk%20Barometer) [![Share on Pinterest](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/pinterest-24x24.png)](http://pinterest.com/pin/create/button/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dpinterest&media=) [![Share on Email](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/email-24x24.png)](mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Demail%20&body=Check%20out%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalguardian.com%2Fnewsroom%2Frisk-barometer-june-2025%3Futm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Demail) In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and [click here to subscribe](https://globalguardian.com/newsroom/risk-barometer-may-2025#subscribe) for regular intelligence updates. ## ![Risk Barometer_June_Ethiopia_2 copy 2](https://www.globalguardian.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Risk%20Barometer_June_Ethiopia_2%20copy%202.jpg?width=1140&height=186&name=Risk%20Barometer_June_Ethiopia_2%20copy%202.jpg) ## Innovative Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt Russia’s War Calculus On 01 June 2025, Ukrainian Intelligence conducted an unprecedented drone attack on Russia’s **strategic bomber fleet**. Two days later, on 03 June, Ukrainian naval drones penetrated Russian defenses around the **Kerch Strait Bridge**, partially damaging one of the pier’s steel support pylons. In the space of two days, Kyiv demonstrated an ability to destroy high-value targets deep inside Russia, threatened a critical supply line into **Crimea**, and damaged part of Russia’s **nuclear triad**, substantially raising the expected cost of continued fighting for the Kremlin.  - **Global Guardian recommends avoiding non-essential travel to both Russia and Ukraine.** - **Personnel in Ukraine should monitor all air raid warnings and follow all official instructions. ** ### ![Ukranian Strikes_Update](https://www.globalguardian.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Ukranian%20Strikes_Update.jpg?width=1881&height=726&name=Ukranian%20Strikes_Update.jpg) ### Situation Report On **01 June**, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked Russia’s **Belaya Air Base** in **Irkutsk Oblast**, **Olenya Air Base** in **Murmansk Oblast**, **Dyagilevo Air Base** in **Ryazan Oblast**, and **Ivanovo Air Base** in **Ivanovo Oblast **using over **150 First Person View (FPV) drones **smuggled into Russia in a series of semi-trucks in what it dubbed **Operation Spider’s Web**. These four bases house Russia’s strategic bomber fleet of **TU-22s**, **TU-95s**, and **TU-160s**. Ukraine claims to have **damaged** some **41 airframes**, including at least two **A-50** command and control aircraft, of which Russia only had **10** prior to the strike. Open-source intelligence confirms that at least **12** of the airframes were severely damaged, while the remaining **29** are potentially reparable. Prior to the strike, Russia likely had fewer than **90** operational strategic bombers.  On **03 June, **Ukraine used a series of **submersible** and **surface drones** to clear a path through Russian defenses around the Kerch Strait Bridge. Roughly **1,100kg** of explosives were detonated on the steel pylons that anchor the bridge piers. The extent of damage to the bridge is unclear, but **traffic largely resumed** on 04 June.  In response, Russia has conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities involving upwards of 400 attack vehicles. On **10 June** Russia launched **315 drones** and decoys and **seven missiles **including at least **two North Korean ballistic missiles** targeting **Kyiv, Dnipro, Odessa, **and **Chernihiv Oblasts. ** At least **six people were killed** and **several dozen wounded** in the strategic bombardment, cross border shelling, and drone attacks. ### Analysis The destruction of a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bombing fleet represents a considerable loss that must now be factored into the Russian Ministry of Defense’s calculations on multiple levels. - **Direct Losses**: Between **roughly 20%** and** 40%** of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet—representing billions of dollars of hardware—was either **destroyed** outright or rendered **inoperable** for months, potentially years. The airframes targeted in Ukraine’s operation are not in production, so the systems are not being replaced, and repairs can only be done by **cannibalizing** existing airframes. Russia's modern strategic bomber is still in development. - **Strategic Losses:** Russia’s strategic bomber fleet represents the most visible leg of its nuclear triad—the other two being ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines. The airframe losses **reduce** the number of platforms capable of **long-range missions**, limiting Russia’s ability to conduct patrols over strategic regions like the Arctic or Pacific and hindering Moscow’s power projection. Ukraine’s attack also marginally weakens Russia’s nuclear posture and diminishes its ability to saber-rattle. - **Potential Economic Losses**. Suppose Ukrainian drones might be in any one of Russia’s thousands of trucks. In that case, Russian security forces must either devote considerable resources to impeding their own logistical system, or risk further attacks.  - **Opportunity Costs: **Knowing that not every truck can be checked, Russia may now allocate limited air defense and electronic warfare systems away from the front to protect expensive and strategically important systems like bombers, missiles, and submarines. Additionally, to maintain the tempo of its cruise missile attacks on Ukraine, Russia will have to use a larger proportion of the smaller Sukhoi airframes, which could otherwise be used for air defense and ground support roles.   ### Looking Forward So long as Moscow believes it can still gain ground in Ukraine, the war will continue. If Ukraine continues to lose ground on the frontline, it will increasingly look to these kinds of asymmetric strikes inside Russia, threatening other Kremlin-prized assets. Politically, strikes inside Russia are significantly more costly to the Kremlin than losses in Ukraine, as they incur criticism of the government’s inability to protect Russia’s interior. | ### Key Takeaways - Ukraine will increasingly resort to asymmetric, unconventional, and novel attacks that weaponize Russia’s own economic and logistical systems to threaten its domestic stability and long-term strategic capabilities.  - Russia does not have a credible deterrent to such attacks because it conducts strategic bombardment of Ukrainian population centers at similar rates regardless of Ukrainian actions. - If Ukraine can replicate the success of Operation Spider's Web, Russia may be forced to choose between long-term strategic competitiveness and short-term territorial gains. | | --- |   [![GG_WWTA-2024-Footer](https://www.globalguardian.com/hs-fs/hubfs/GG_WWTA-2024-Footer.jpg?width=3462&height=754&name=GG_WWTA-2024-Footer.jpg)](https://www.globalguardian.com/worldwide-threat-assessment)   CUSTOM INTELLIGENCE Our intelligence analysts provide in-depth custom reports—including critical insight from on-the-ground resources—for clients and organizations in need of real-time analysis of world events with the potential to impact business operations. 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