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Innovative Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt Russia’s War Calculus
On 01 June 2025, Ukrainian Intelligence conducted an unprecedented drone attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Two days later, on 03 June, Ukrainian naval drones penetrated Russian defenses around the Kerch Strait Bridge, partially damaging one of the pier’s steel support pylons. In the space of two days, Kyiv demonstrated an ability to destroy high-value targets deep inside Russia, threatened a critical supply line into Crimea, and damaged part of Russia’s nuclear triad, substantially raising the expected cost of continued fighting for the Kremlin.
- Global Guardian recommends avoiding non-essential travel to both Russia and Ukraine.
- Personnel in Ukraine should monitor all air raid warnings and follow all official instructions.
Situation Report
On 01 June, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked Russia’s Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast, Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast, Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast, and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast using over 150 First Person View (FPV) drones smuggled into Russia in a series of semi-trucks in what it dubbed Operation Spider’s Web. These four bases house Russia’s strategic bomber fleet of TU-22s, TU-95s, and TU-160s. Ukraine claims to have damaged some 41 airframes, including at least two A-50 command and control aircraft, of which Russia only had 10 prior to the strike. Open-source intelligence confirms that at least 12 of the airframes were severely damaged, while the remaining 29 are potentially reparable. Prior to the strike, Russia likely had fewer than 90 operational strategic bombers.
On 03 June, Ukraine used a series of submersible and surface drones to clear a path through Russian defenses around the Kerch Strait Bridge. Roughly 1,100kg of explosives were detonated on the steel pylons that anchor the bridge piers. The extent of damage to the bridge is unclear, but traffic largely resumed on 04 June.
In response, Russia has conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities involving upwards of 400 attack vehicles. On 10 June Russia launched 315 drones and decoys and seven missiles including at least two North Korean ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv, Dnipro, Odessa, and Chernihiv Oblasts. At least six people were killed and several dozen wounded in the strategic bombardment, cross border shelling, and drone attacks.
Analysis
The destruction of a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bombing fleet represents a considerable loss that must now be factored into the Russian Ministry of Defense’s calculations on multiple levels.
- Direct Losses: Between roughly 20% and 40% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet—representing billions of dollars of hardware—was either destroyed outright or rendered inoperable for months, potentially years. The airframes targeted in Ukraine’s operation are not in production, so the systems are not being replaced, and repairs can only be done by cannibalizing existing airframes. Russia's modern strategic bomber is still in development.
- Strategic Losses: Russia’s strategic bomber fleet represents the most visible leg of its nuclear triad—the other two being ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines. The airframe losses reduce the number of platforms capable of long-range missions, limiting Russia’s ability to conduct patrols over strategic regions like the Arctic or Pacific and hindering Moscow’s power projection. Ukraine’s attack also marginally weakens Russia’s nuclear posture and diminishes its ability to saber-rattle.
- Potential Economic Losses. Suppose Ukrainian drones might be in any one of Russia’s thousands of trucks. In that case, Russian security forces must either devote considerable resources to impeding their own logistical system, or risk further attacks.
- Opportunity Costs: Knowing that not every truck can be checked, Russia may now allocate limited air defense and electronic warfare systems away from the front to protect expensive and strategically important systems like bombers, missiles, and submarines. Additionally, to maintain the tempo of its cruise missile attacks on Ukraine, Russia will have to use a larger proportion of the smaller Sukhoi airframes, which could otherwise be used for air defense and ground support roles.
Looking Forward
So long as Moscow believes it can still gain ground in Ukraine, the war will continue. If Ukraine continues to lose ground on the frontline, it will increasingly look to these kinds of asymmetric strikes inside Russia, threatening other Kremlin-prized assets. Politically, strikes inside Russia are significantly more costly to the Kremlin than losses in Ukraine, as they incur criticism of the government’s inability to protect Russia’s interior.
Key Takeaways
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