August Risk Barometer

COLOMBIA | KENYA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

The Surge of Political Violence in Colombia Signals Deepening Instability

The surge of violence across southwestern Colombia, particularly in Cauca and Valle del Cauca, underscores the growing strength of the Central General Staff (EMC) dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The June assassination attempt on presidential candidate Miguel Uribe, a wave of coordinated bombings, and the June and July kidnappings in Cauca demonstrate the EMC/FARC dissidents’ ability to undermine state authority and exert control over key regions. Without decisive action to dismantle their financial networks and territorial control, these armed groups will continue consolidating power, posing a threat to Colombia’s long-term security and political stability.

Recommendations

• Avoid non-essential travel to Cauca and Valle del Cauca departments.
• Robust mission planning and security support for essential travel within Colombia.
• Monitor the security situation in impacted areas, particularly through real-time intel reports and analysis.

Timeline

• 07 June, an assassination attempt targeted Miguel Uribe, a prominent Colombian presidential candidate, during a campaign event in Cali, Valle del Cauca department.
• 10 June, EMC militants executed approximately 24 coordinated bombings across Cali, Corinto, Jamundí, and Guachinte in the departments of Cauca and Valle del Cauca. The attacks, involving IEDs, VBIEDs, sniper fire, and drones, targeted police stations and municipal buildings, resulting in eight fatalities and over 80 injuries.
• 21-22 June, 57 soldiers of the Colombian Army were kidnapped by local civilians allegedly acting under the influence of EMC/FARC dissidents in the La Hacienda area of El Tambo, Cauca Department. The Colombian military launched “Operation Justice,” successfully rescuing all personnel and arresting 20 captors.
• 17 July, members of EMC abducted nine state contractors in a humanitarian mission in López de Micay, Cauca Department. The group claims the victims were installing military equipment and warned of harm if Colombian military operations persist in EMC strongholds.

Situation Report

Negotiations and Government Response
President Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative has prioritized ceasefires and negotiations with EMC/FARC dissidents; however, certain factions have declined to participate in dialogue. The bilateral ceasefire—originally set to continue until April 2025—was suspended in Cauca and Valle del Cauca due to increased hostilities. In response, the government deployed over 16,000 troops to high-risk zones and enhanced both aerial surveillance and checkpoint operations. Additionally, security forces neutralized EMC commander “Cholinga” on 11 June, following the previous day’s bombings.

Traveler Impact
Military presence is heavy along roads connecting Cali, Popayán, and rural Cauca, with frequent checkpoints and intermittent road closures. While major airports including Alfonso Bonilla Aragón (CLO) remain operational, travelers should expect delays due to heightened security. Rural areas face increased risks from IEDs, ambushes, and drone attacks.

Analysis

Colombia’s security environment is deteriorating as state forces struggle to contain the expanding influence of armed groups like EMC. Despite instances of tactical successes, such as the neutralization of EMC commander “Cholinga,” the government has been unable to secure lasting control over rural territories in Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and other conflict-prone departments. These areas, rich in coca cultivation and drug trafficking routes, have become strongholds for EMC and other armed groups that operate with relative impunity, launching coordinated bombings, kidnappings, and attacks on civilian and state infrastructure.

The Colombian military and police face persistent challenges due to overstretched resources, operational gaps in rural areas, and shifting priorities under President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” strategy. Ceasefires intended to encourage dialogue have instead allowed dissident groups to regroup, rearm, and expand their territorial control. This failure to project authority into rural regions has created safe havens for criminal operations, while local populations are coerced by armed factions for economic and logistical support.

The escalation of violence in urban centers exemplified by the June assassination attempt on Miguel Uribe, coordinated attacks across southwestern Colombia, and high-profile kidnappings in Cauca, demonstrates how armed groups are increasingly willing to challenge the state on multiple fronts. Without decisive measures to disrupt these groups’ financial networks, regain territorial control, and reinforce security in rural areas, Colombia risks a prolonged security crisis.

Looking Forward

Violence in southwestern Colombia is likely to escalate in the short to medium term as EMC/FARC dissidents strengthen their territorial control and continue high-profile attacks, including bombings and kidnappings. This trend is likely to continue unless the Colombian government adopts a more comprehensive and proactive strategy that targets armed groups’ financial networks and increases security presence in rural strongholds.

If unopposed, dissidents will consolidate long-term control over strategic territories, gradually eroding state authority and creating entrenched power centers that will be increasingly difficult to dismantle.

Violent Civil Unrest in Kenya

Kenya has experienced six weeks of violent civil unrest, triggered by the death of blogger Albert Omondi Ojwang in police custody on 09 June. What began as isolated protests against police brutality has expanded into broader anti-government demonstrations over poor governance, economic hardship, and lack of accountability. Despite periods of calm, the situation is volatile, and further clashes are possible in the short term.

Recommendations

• Global Guardian advises reconsidering non-essential travel to Nairobi, Mombasa, and other protest-prone urban centers.
• In-country personnel should avoid demonstrations, maintain a low profile, and utilize secure private transportation services.
• Clients operating in Kenya should monitor real-time intelligence updates and conduct pre-trip security briefings for all personnel.

Situation Report

Since 12 June, there have been four significant bouts of violent civil unrest in Nairobi and Mombasa, resulting in 65 fatalities and hundreds of injuries. Protests since 07 July have remained peaceful, but renewed clashes between protesters and security forces could reignite due to a variety of triggers. Kenyan police have employed tear gas, barricades, rubber bullets, water cannons, and live fire. Protestors are largely composed of students, unemployed youth, and working-class citizens. The government’s approach has remained security-centric, offering no concessions.

• 21 July 2025 – Activist Boniface Mwangi is charged with unlawful ammunition possession, sparking fears of broader repression.
• 09 July 2025 – President Ruto issues a statement claiming that it is necessary for police to use barricades, tear gas, and water cannons against protestors.
• 08 July 2025 – Protests erupt in Nanyuki after a woman dies after being taken into police custody.
• 07 July 2025 (Saba Saba Day) – Protests erupt Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kwale, Kilifi, and Migori on the 35th anniversary of a historic pro-democracy rally; 43 people are killed.
• 25 June 2025 – Police fire live rounds and deploy tear gas and rubber bullets at protestors on the one-year anniversary of anti-tax protests; 16 people are killed.
• 23 June 2025 – Twenty-three protesters are killed in demonstrations across the country, marking a sharp rise in violence.
• 09 June 2025 – Blogger Albert Ojwang dies in police custody from blunt head trauma, triggering the initial wave of protests in Nairobi.

Analysis

• Kenya’s government continues to employ repressive tactics in response to civil unrest, while sidestepping the structural drivers of discontent. In a statement on 09 July President Ruto justified the harsh crowd control methods as necessary to “protect the lives of other Kenyans,” indicating that his administration will continue to respond to anti-government protests with a heavy hand.
• The root causes of the unrest—youth unemployment, political exclusion, and perceived corruption—remain unresolved. Kenya’s younger generations are more educated yet economically marginalized, fueling resentment against a political system they see as favoring elites and offering limited socioeconomic mobility.
• Repression may temporarily quell protests, but without genuine reforms, the state risks perpetuating a cycle of discontent and crackdowns. The government's unwillingness to grant concessions or create economic pathways for youth further alienates a large and restive segment of the population.

Looking Forward

In the short term, civil unrest is likely to persist. While protests alone are unlikely to force reversal in fiscal policy or regime change, their frequency and intensity may increase.

• Status Quo Continuation (Likely): The government continues with repressive tactics, protests persist sporadically, and no major reforms are enacted.
• Escalation (Possible): A trigger event (e.g., another high-profile death, economic shock, or government overreach) ignites a nationwide movement with international attention and potential regional fallout.

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