Iran spent the weekend retaliating against Israel with multiple waves of ballistic missile strikes. At the same time, Israel continued to fly sorties into Iranian airspace having established complete air superiority in Western and Central Iran, conducting dozens of airstrikes on military and infrastructure targets across the country.
Israeli interceptor missiles have neutralized most of the barrages, but with significant damage reported where Iranian missiles have made it through, including in Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Rishon Lezion, Rehovot, Haifa, Tamra, and other sites. In Haifa, an Iranian strike reportedly damaged the port and oil refinery.
Israeli Defense Force (IDF) airstrikes have targeted Tehran’s Shahran oil depot, Mashhad Airport, Tabriz Airport, and Mehrabad Airport in Tehran. Airstrikes on 15 June targeted the Defense Ministry headquarters. Other strikes have targeted missile launcher sites, radar installations, air defense installations, electrical substations and power supplies, and laboratories and research facilities across Iran. Notably, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear sites, including Parchin, Iran's nuclear weapon research facility, and Esfahan, the site where Iran could convert enriched uranium gas to metal for a warhead.
Iran cancelled nuclear negotiations with the U.S. scheduled for 15 June in Oman.
Situation Report
According to Israeli government data, Iran has conducted 11 attacks on Israel since the start of the war, launching 370 missiles and more than 150 drones, hitting 30 locations. Israel has reported at least 24 fatalities, with over 700 people injured, while Iran reported over 220 people killed, with nearly 1,300 wounded.- Ben Gurion Airport (Tel Aviv) remains closed to all departures and arrivals since June 13 and will remain shut “until further notice.” No flights are operating in or out, and Israeli airlines have evacuated their fleets to foreign airports for safety.
- Israeli airspace remains fully closed to commercial and civilian flights. The Israeli Airports Authority has not provided a reopening timeline but has stated that flights will receive six hours’ notice prior to resumption.
- Airspace remains closed in Iran and Iraq.
- Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria all reopened airspace on 14 June.
- Major international airlines continue to avoid the region, rerouting flights over alternative corridors.
- Israel claims to have eliminated one-third of Iran’s missile launchers.
- Direct calls to action have been issued by four ethnic dissident groups, one Baloch (Jaish al-Adl) and three Kurdish groups.
- USS Nimitz aircraft carrier is en route to the region from the South China Sea.
ANalysis
The Iranian ballistic missile response was expected in the wake of IDF airstrikes. They have been largely ineffective due to air defense interceptors and effective use of bomb shelters by Israelis, and Israel's continuous destruction of Iran's launchers, reducing the real threat Iran can pose. As previously mentioned, Iran lacks practical deterrence options beyond trying to exhaust Israel's interceptor magazines. It is becoming clear that Iran cannot fire massive coordinated salvos, though each wave can still do devastating damage.
Over the weekend, Israel expanded its air campaign, beginning to strike regime institutions dedicated to internal security and social control, including the headquarters of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Law Enforcement Command (LEC). Should Israel begin to systematically target the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Basij paramilitary bases, it would indicate that Israel's attacks in Iran's internal security apparatus are not just about creating a more permissive environment for Mossad ground operations, but rather aimed at promoting internal dissent.
Geopolitical regional stability would be threatened should other nations, particularly the U.S., get involved in the conflict. The below escalation pathways highlight "triggers" to look for that may signal a wider regional conflagration.
Escalation Pathways
- Iran threatens to close or mine the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a potential global oil crisis.
- Iran targets U.S. military or commercial interests in the region.
- Iran targets energy infrastructure in the Gulf states (UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, KSA).
- Iran tests a “crude” nuclear device or uses any non-conventional weapons.
- U.S. begins offensive operations.
Recommendations
- Avoid all non-essential travel to the region.
- Evacuate expats from Israel.
- Prepare for contingencies to include evacuation in the event of conflict.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained airspace closures.
STANDING BY TO Support
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