On 21 June 2025, President Trump announced that the U.S. had successfully carried out strikes on Iran's three nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. This followed the deployment of B-2 bombers from Missouri earlier in the day and comes just a few days after President Trump said he would decide on U.S. intervention within two weeks. The strikes portend a likely Iranian response targeting U.S. military bases in the region. Reconsider all travel to the Middle East in the coming days and weeks as the situation remains extremely fluid.
The U.S. military has repositioned aircraft and some naval vessels out of bases in the region in the last week—including repositioning naval ships from the port in Bahrain (home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet) and moving aircraft lacking hardened shelter from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This was in anticipation of an Iranian response should the U.S. get involved.
The U.S. has also moved fighter jets and refueling tankers to strategic locations, including Greece, England, Spain, Saudi Arabia, and Germany. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is in the Arabian Sea along with four warships and will be joined shortly by the USS Nimitz—long scheduled to take over for the Carl Vinson—and is heading west from the Indo-Pacific region toward the Middle East.
Situation Report
- The B-2 bombers delivered "bunker buster" payloads meant to destroy hardened targets like the Fordow facility buried deep underground.
- The U.S. began "assisted departure flights" from Israel on 21 June, with two flights taking about 70 U.S. citizens, their immediate family members, and lawful permanent residents from Tel Aviv to Athens, Greece.
- Ben Gurion Airport (Tel Aviv) remains closed to all departures and arrivals since June 13 and will stay closed “until further notice.”
- Israeli airspace remains fully closed to commercial and civilian flights.
- Airspace remains closed in Iran and Iraq.
- Jordan and Lebanon reopened their airspaces on 14 June.
- Major international airlines continue to avoid the region, rerouting flights over alternative corridors.
Analysis
Iran had recently said they would never give up their uranium enrichment program as part of any negotiations. This recent declaration likely sped up Washington's decision making process to take military action.
The next question is how does Iran respond? The most likely retaliatory target is a U.S. airbase in the region—possibly in the Gulf states or in Iraq, Syria, or Jordan. Iran had said they would hit any country that allowed U.S. strikes to be launched from their soil. As the B-2 bombers took off from Missouri, Iran does not have a specific likely target in the region.
We could see a similar series of strikes as occurred in January 2020 following the killing of Qasem Soleimani, where Iran telegraphed their response and struck an uninhabited part of the Ain al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. Their goal then was get off of the escalation ladder. Their goal now is more likely to be inflicting real damage to the U.S. military.
Recommendations
- Avoid all non-essential travel to the region.
- Evacuate expats from Israel, consider evacuating expats from the region.
- Prepare for contingencies to include evacuation in the event of conflict.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained airspace closures.
STANDING BY TO Support
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