Tensions are rising in the Middle East as nuclear negotiations with Iran are faltering. On 11 June 2025, the United States (U.S.) ordered embassies within range of Iran to convene emergency action committees and report back to Washington on their risk mitigation measures. In Iraq, the U.S. Embassy officially began to draw down non-essential staff. Iran has vowed to strike U.S. forces across the region should its nuclear installations come under attack. With negotiations at an impasse, the region is preparing for conflict ahead of a possible final round of negotiations in Oman on 15 June 2025.
Situation Report
- On 12 June, the U.S. Embassy Jerusalem issued a security alert barring U.S. government employees (and their families) from travel outside of greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva, citing increased regional tensions.
- On 12 June, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran in breach of its obligations. Iran responded by announcing it would build a new underground uranium enrichment facility in a secure location and install advanced IR-6 centrifuges at its underground Fordow uranium enrichment site.
- On 11 June, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued a rare warning about rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, citing potential military escalation that could directly affect shipping.
- On 11 June, the U.S. Department of State ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel from Iraq. Non-essential staff and families from Bahrain and Kuwait are also being pulled.
- On 11 June, U.S. Central Command issued a statement authorizing the departure of military dependents from locations.
Potential Local Impacts
Iraq
- Violent unrest targeting U.S. Embassy.
- Iranian military action against U.S. military and commercial assets.
Saudi Arabia
- Iranian-directed military activity targeting U.S. military and commercial assets. Attacks would most likely come from Iraq and/or Yemen.
Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE
- Iranian-directed military activity targeting U.S. military and commercial assets. Attacks could come from Iran, Iraq, or Yemen.
Qatar
- Iranian-directed military activity targeting U.S. military and commercial assets in the event of deployment of U.S. aviation assets from Al-Udeid airbase.
Israel
- Iranian or Iranian-directed (Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon) military activity targeting Israeli air bases and/or nuclear reactor at Dimona.
ANalysis
President Trump's two-month window for negotiations has now expired. The situation hinges on the outcome of diplomacy and the internal red lines of President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei. The U.S. diplomatic drawdown amid Israel's threats to strike Iran, should diplomacy fail, returns a credible military threat to the Iran nuclear negotiations.
Depending on Iran’s response in negotiations, Israel could strike shortly after—or even before Sunday (15 June)—if Iran escalates its retaliation over the IAEA censure. A limited Israeli strike could also strengthen the U.S. posture by making its military threat more credible.
Despite increased leverage, a comprehensive deal is unlikely. Military escalation is likely in the short term.
Recommendations
- Avoid all non-essential travel to the region.
- Consider evacuating expats from Iraq.
- Prepare for contingencies to include evacuation in the event of conflict.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained airspace closures.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Evacuation planning and execution (air, land, sea)
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
