Israel announced it had killed Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Basij (Iran's internal repression apparatus), Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, in airstrikes on 17 March. According to CNN, citing an unnamed senior official, the U.S. and Israel considered Ali Larijani their favored transitional candidate last year, but he became a target following his push for violent crackdown on protestors earlier this year, his recent public rhetoric following the start of war, and his large role in strategizing IRGC response, including against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Addressing the assassination, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the killings “we are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it.”
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reporting suggests that Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering joining the U.S. in operations to reopen it. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy "bunker buster" ordnance targeting missile sites in the caves above the Strait.
Forecast
Operation Epic Fury is assessed to continue for a minimum of three to four weeks, with an extended campaign increasingly likely.
- The killing of Larijani, the deployment of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), and President Trump's decision to delay his trip to China all point in the same direction. Early-exit scenarios are now highly unlikely, given that nearly the entirety of Iran's senior leadership has been eliminated. At this point, the U.S. cannot afford to withdraw while Iran retains the ability to credibly threaten closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global pressure over the conflict's mounting economic toll is intensifying, but the administration retains significant domestic political runway. Despite a 30% national increase in gasoline prices, President Trump's base overwhelmingly supports continuing the operation, giving the White House room to press forward.
Larijani Killing Removes Regime Upper Strata
- From the outset of the conflict, Larijani publicly ruled out negotiations, making his removal a significant strategic milestone. However, he was the last senior figure capable of brokering an internal consensus around a ceasefire. His killing also sends a deliberate signal to potential transitional figures within the regime: now is the time to make contact with the U.S. and/or Israel. Targeted assassinations of senior security leaders will continue until those remaining choose to defect or agree to a concessionary ceasefire.
MEU Deployment Expands Littoral Strike Options
- The 31st MEU has been deployed to the Gulf. The USS Tripoli was spotted near Taiwan on 13 March and is estimated to arrive on station by 25–26 March. The MEU is a self-contained amphibious strike force with ground and air combat elements.
- The deployment substantially widens U.S. options for operations in the Gulf theater across two mission sets. First, sea control: the MEU can destroy Iranian small-boat formations, including those employed in mine-laying operations that threaten transit in the Strait of Hormuz. Second, littoral raids and seizures: alongside special operations forces, the MEU can strike hardened bunkers and missile storage sites on Kharg Island, Qeshm, Abu Musa, and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, as well as Iranian coastal bases capable of threatening naval convoys. The MEU can additionally seize and hold islands or establish landing zones to receive air-delivered forces in support of larger-scale operations.
Trump Delay Preserves Leverage Ahead of Beijing Summit
- President Trump has requested a postponement of his China visit, originally scheduled for 31 March–02 April. The delay is assessed to reflect one or both of the following strategic calculations: a preference to negotiate from a position of strength rather than uncertainty—particularly if ground combat operations are underway by that date—and a desire to preserve the option of interdicting China-bound Iranian oil shipments without being diplomatically constrained by an active summit. Entering Beijing while a major combat operation is in progress would limit President Trump's negotiating flexibility.
Situation Report
- 18 March: UAE defense ministry says its air defense systems downed 13 ballistic missiles and 27 drones from Iran on Wednesday.
- 18 March: Iranian state media reports U.S.–Israeli strikes on the country's South Pars oil field. This comes a day after an Iranian drone struck the UAE's Shah gas field, the first such strike targeting oil and gas fields and not just industrial areas tied to petrochemicals.
- 18 March: Israel's defense minister says Iran’s Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib was killed in overnight Tehran airstrike.
- 16–18 March: Gulf states continue to intercept Iranian drones and missiles with limited numbers of impacts. The U.S. and Israel continue to hit military targets across Iran.
- 17 March: The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad continues to be heavily targeted by Iranian-allied militia groups using drones.
- 16 March: According to Axios, a direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian FM Araghchi has been reactivated; however, Iran’s Foreign Minister quickly denied that he has contacted Steve Witkoff and said Iran will not ask for a ceasefire to teach the U.S. a “lesson."
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace closed
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iran: airspace closed
- Iraq: airspace closed
- Israel: airspace partially open/restricted
- Jordan: airspace restricted
- Kuwait: airspace closed
- Lebanon: airspace partially open/restricted
- Oman: airspace open/restricted corridors
- Qatar: airspace closed
- Airspace is currently closed to standard traffic following recent missile interceptions. Qatar Airways announced it would be operating a limited number of flights 18–28 March, primarily for repatriation purposes.
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Periodic suspension of flights at Riyadh due to drone activity.
- Syria: airspace effectively closed
- UAE: airspace partially open
- Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are experiencing intermittent closures and significant cancellations due to periodic drone strikes.
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