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On 26 March, President Trump announced the U.S. would delay strikes on Iranian power plants until 06 April and said negotiations were going very well. This follows an earlier extension of the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, set to expire today. At the same time, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said there were "strong signs" of a ceasefire deal and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said intermediary countries were “passing messages, and progress has been made” in talks with Iran.  

Despite more positive rhetoric around negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the region. Taken together, the extension of President Trump’s deadline, the potential troop increase, and Sen. Nancy Mace’s comments after a classified briefing suggest the U.S. is going to deploy troops to Iranian-controlled islands in the Strait of Hormuz within the next one to two weeks.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis threatened military intervention in the Iran conflict "if necessary" but have yet to explicitly commit to any particular redlines. It is possible that the group will return to attacks on Red Sea shipping or oil and gas infrastructure should the U.S. put boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz.

Situation Report

  • 26 March: Abu Dhabi Media Office reported at least two people killed and multiple others injured in an Iranian ballistic missile strike targeting Abu Dhabi. The deaths were attributed to falling shrapnel from an interception.
  • 26 March: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed an Israeli airstrike killed the IRGC’s navy commander, Alireza Tangsiri.
  • 26 March: Kuwait Port Authority said drone attacks targeted Shuwaikh Port, near Kuwait City, causing “material damage.”
  • 26 March: Iranian permanent mission to the United Nations stated that any vessel from a country not aligned with the U.S. or Israel may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.
  • 26 March: Iran's military issued a threat to hotels in the region housing American troops, including new locations in Damascus, Beirut, and Djibouti.
  • 26 March: Russia dismissed reports that it was in the process of sending drones to Iran. 
  • 25 March: CNN reported Iran was building up defenses on Kharg Island in advance of a potential ground invasion. According to their sources, Iran moved additional man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and laid anti-personnel and anti-armor mines on shorelines.
  • 25 March: The Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior announced it had broken up a third sleeper cell linked to Hezbollah after arresting five Kuwaiti citizens and one other national. They said they also identified five Kuwaiti citizens, two Iranians, two Lebanese, and five others that had fled the country.
  • 25 March: Iran rejected the 15-point plan presented by the United States.

Airspace Status

  • Bahrain: airspace closed
  • Cyprus: airspace open
  • Egypt: airspace open 
  • Iran: airspace closed
  • Iraq: airspace closed
  • Israel: airspace partially open/restricted
    • Closed to most commercial traffic except repatriation flights.
  • Jordan: airspace open
  • Kuwait: airspace closed
  • Lebanon: airspace partially open/restricted 
  • Oman: airspace open
  • Qatar: airspace partially closed/restricted
    • Limited repatriation flights, most commercial flights suspended.
  • Saudi Arabia: airspace open
  • Syria: airspace heavily restricted
  • UAE: airspace restricted

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