On 30 April, Iran sent the United States a revised proposal to end the conflict via Pakistan. The details of this proposal are unknown. When responding to the press about the status of talks, President Trump told reporters on 01 May that "I'm not sure if they ever get there." The new proposal comes after President Trump reportedly rejected Iran's previous proposal sent on 26 April that omitted the nuclear file.
In a written statement on 30 April, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei asserted Iran's intention to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirmed Iran's commitment to its nuclear and missile programs. With Iran's Supreme Leader officially weighing in, the diplomatic track appears to be a dead end.
Over the past 48 hours, a number of signals have emerged that point to an increasing likelihood of a resumption of fighting. While none are dispositive, barring an Iranian concession that President Trump can sell as a victory, a return to conflict looks increasingly likely. Travel to the Gulf states should be reconsidered in the near-term.
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According to video evidence and Iranian media, Iran's air defenses were activated over multiple cities overnight on 30 April. While unconfirmed, it is possible that the air defense activation was a result of Israeli and/or American probing efforts.
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Over the last 12 hours, U.S. refueling planes have been observed flying in circles over Iraq and the Gulf, a likely sign of intensive intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) flights.
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On 30 April, the UAE banned its citizens from traveling to Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon and urged those currently in those countries to leave immediately, citing regional developments. It is possible that the UAE received advance warning from the U.S. about potential renewed strikes on Iran.
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Several hours after CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine's White House briefing on new plans for possible military action against Iran on 30 April, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, who sits on the Armed Services and Homeland Security committees, said on CNN he has the impression that “an imminent military strike is very much on the table.”
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U.S. Congress began a recess from 30 April until 11 May, delaying any War Powers Resolution with a reasonable possibility of passing for at least 10 days.
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In addition to the major logistics air bridge that began at the onset of the 08 April ceasefire, three search and rescue aircraft (HC-130J Combat King IIs), the same used during the F-15 pilot rescue operation, were observed entering the region on 29 April, suggesting a high-level preparedness for potential operations.
Should President Trump elect to resume military operations there are two main categories of campaign: limited and broad.
Limited:
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Targeted assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Ahmad Vahidi, who is seen as the main impediment to a more favorable deal.
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Strikes on Iranian oil and gas and/or electricity generation infrastructure.
Broad (inclusion of ground forces):
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Seize parts of Iran's coastline and strategic islands to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Seize Kharg Island.
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Secure or render inaccessible the remainder of Iran's highly enriched uranium.
Iran's retaliation to any of the above military options is expected to be severe. Unlike the first 24 hours of Operation Epic Fury, Iran has spent three weeks preparing for this contingency and has reconstituted "missile city" access at various locations sealed off during the conflict. Moreover, the air defense environment in the Gulf and Israel is degraded, meaning that the same high interception rates during the 39 days of conflict cannot be counted on, especially during the initial phase of Iranian retaliation. The region's energy infrastructure is expected to be Iran's main target with critical infrastructure to include desalination plants and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping acting as escalatory moves depending on the nature of the renewed American/Israeli campaign.
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