The ceasefire has now reached six weeks—longer than the hot phase of the conflict—and an agreement remains elusive. Tehran's terms keep on moving farther away from Washington's, making a diplomatic solution increasingly unlikely. The U.S. would like to return to the pre-war status quo with Iran's military complex weakened and its nuclear ambitions constrained by an agreement that extracts Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU), pauses enrichment for 20 years, and dismantles its nuclear infrastructure. Having survived Operation Epic Fury, the regime wants to set the conditions to prevent future military intervention by locking in its gains, specifically, de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, even if this results in renewed conflict.
On 18 May, President Trump announced via Truth Social that a planned U.S. military strike on Iran, scheduled for 19 May, had been called off. According to the President, the decision followed direct requests from three Gulf heads of state—Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim, Saudi Crown Prince MBS, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE say they were not aware of any imminent planned strike. President Trump also made it clear that this is not a broad deescalation effort, and on 19 May, told reporters that the postponement of strikes was time-limited: "I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time."
The strike postponement comes as Iran's newest 18 May proposal is more maximalist than prior proposals. Reuters reports that Iran's position now includes ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, war reparations, an end to the U.S. naval blockade and exit of U.S. forces from bases near Iran, a lifting of sanctions, and a release of frozen assets. Tehran continues to refuse to discuss the nuclear file.
Also, on 18 May, Iran announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) that it says will oversee transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is attempting to formalize its control over the Strait of Hormuz to make it impossible to return to the pre-war status quo. On 20 May, two Chinese and one South Korean tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly with Iranian permission, in a sign of Iran's growing control over the waterway.
According to Kann News, joint U.S.–Israel preparations are complete to restart military operations in Iran. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have now spoken twice in the last few days, and Netanyahu has missed a court hearing and is set to miss an important vote on dissolving the Israeli parliament scheduled for 20 May, citing security developments.
Global Guardian assesses a roughly even chance of a return to hostilities within the next two weeks.
Situation report
- 19 May: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu hold their second call in three days over Iran.
- 19 May: U.S. seizes Iran-linked tanker Skywave in the Indian Ocean.
- 19 May: The U.S. Senate advances a war powers resolution to halt the military campaign against Iran unless President Trump receives approval from Congress. The Senate and House of Representatives would still need to pass the resolution with two-thirds majorities to withstand a presidential veto.
- 19 May: The UAE says it intercepted and destroyed six hostile drones in its airspace over the past 48 hours. Targets were unclear, no reported casualties, and it is unclear whether this includes the three previously reported drone incursions.
- 18 May: The U.S. and Israel hold high-level meetings with respective national security teams.
- 18 May: Iran submits a new proposal to the U.S. to end the war.
- 17 May: Three drones are launched from Iraq at UAE's Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra, with one making impact and starting a fire. No radiation is released.
- 17 May: Saudi Arabia intercepts three drones emanating from Iraq.
- 16 May: Trump and Netanyahu hold a call to discuss conflict status.
- 15 May: The U.S. State Department announces a 45-day extension of Israel–Lebanon ceasefire.
Airspace Status
- Iran: airspace restricted
- Bahrain: airspace open
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iraq: airspace open
- Israel: airspace open
- Jordan: airspace open
- Kuwait: airspace open
- Lebanon: airspace open
- Oman: airspace open
- Qatar: airspace open
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace open
- UAE: airspace open
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