In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
On 23 June 2025 at approximately 19:40 local time, Iran launched approximately 14 short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles at the United States (U.S.) al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar. A U.S. official told Fox News no U.S. service members were injured or killed in the attack from Iran. The forewarning of the attack prompted the U.S., UK, and China to issue shelter-in-place warnings for Qatar, and airspace over Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Kuwait was temporarily closed. The shelter-in-place warnings and airspace closures have since been lifted.
In a series of Truth Social posts released around 16:00 EST, President Donald Trump, signaled that he considers the incident closed, and said that "It's time for peace." The signs of de-escalation come after American strikes severely damaged or potentially destroyed the Fordow enrichment plant—including its vital ventilation system—followed by an additional Israeli attack. The facility is now out of operation. So too is the uranium conversion site at Esfahan. As a result, Iran can no longer use the Natanz and Fordow enrichment plants to rapidly produce weapons-grade uranium.
On 21 June 2025, President Trump announced that the U.S. had successfully carried out strikes on Iran's three nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. This followed the deployment of B-2 bombers from Missouri earlier in the day and comes just a few days after President Trump said he would decide on U.S. intervention within two weeks. The strikes portend a likely Iranian response targeting U.S. military bases in the region. Reconsider all travel to the Middle East in the coming days and weeks as the situation remains extremely fluid.
The U.S. military has repositioned aircraft and some naval vessels out of bases in the region in the last week—including repositioning naval ships from the port in Bahrain (home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet) and moving aircraft lacking hardened shelter from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This was in anticipation of an Iranian response should the U.S. get involved.
The U.S. has also moved fighter jets and refueling tankers to strategic locations, including Greece, England, Spain, Saudi Arabia, and Germany. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is in the Arabian Sea along with four warships and will be joined shortly by the USS Nimitz—long scheduled to take over for the Carl Vinson—and is heading west from the Indo-Pacific region toward the Middle East.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
On 17 June 2025, President Trump threatened Iran's Supreme Leader over social media, urging "unconditional surrender," as the situation continues to escalate. The previous day, the United States (U.S.) Embassy in Jerusalem issued a Security Alert directing U.S. government employees and their families to continue sheltering in place until further notice. The Security Alert states: "The U.S. Embassy is not in a position at this time to evacuate or directly assist Americans in departing Israel."
Israel's airspace remains closed, with no commercial or charter flights operating. El Al and Sundor flights departing Israel are cancelled until 23 June. Seaports in Israel are also closed. On 18 June, limited El Al repatriation flights to Israel are scheduled from Larnaca, Athens, Rome, Milan, and Paris, but no outbound passenger flights will operate. Israel's land crossings with Jordan and Egypt remain open.
Iran spent the weekend retaliating against Israel with multiple waves of ballistic missile strikes. At the same time, Israel continued to fly sorties into Iranian airspace having established complete air superiority in Western and Central Iran, conducting dozens of airstrikes on military and infrastructure targets across the country.
Israeli interceptor missiles have neutralized most of the barrages, but with significant damage reported where Iranian missiles have made it through, including in Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Rishon Lezion, Rehovot, Haifa, Tamra, and other sites. In Haifa, an Iranian strike reportedly damaged the port and oil refinery.
Israeli Defense Force (IDF) airstrikes have targeted Tehran’s Shahran oil depot, Mashhad Airport, Tabriz Airport, and Mehrabad Airport in Tehran. Airstrikes on 15 June targeted the Defense Ministry headquarters. Other strikes have targeted missile launcher sites, radar installations, air defense installations, electrical substations and power supplies, and laboratories and research facilities across Iran. Notably, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear sites, including Parchin, Iran's nuclear weapon research facility, and Esfahan, the site where Iran could convert enriched uranium gas to metal for a warhead.
Iran cancelled nuclear negotiations with the U.S. scheduled for 15 June in Oman.
As predicted, Israel's air force conducted multiple strikes on Iranian targets across the country overnight on 12-13 June following breakdown in talks between the U.S and Iran over its nuclear program.
Targets included military installations, air bases, and nuclear facilities. Israel killed Hossein Salami, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC); Mohammad Bagheri, Iranian Armed Forces chief of staff; and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Forces, along with other officers and scientists in attacks on Tehran and elsewhere.
As of morning hours EST, Israeli strikes were still ongoing, targeting the Natanz nuclear site and military operations at Mehrabad and Bushehr airports. Israel has said they are planning for 14 days of military operations if needed, while President Trump issued a statement saying, "it will only get worse" for Iran and says a deal must be made "before there is nothing left."
Iran retaliated with a mass drone swarm, but almost all were intercepted before making it to Israeli airspace with remaining drones shot down by Israel's Iron Dome air defense system. The IRGC has pledged a "proportionate and decisive" response at a time of its choosing. Israel is bracing for several major waves of ballistic missile barrages.
Tensions are rising in the Middle East as nuclear negotiations with Iran are faltering. On 11 June 2025, the United States (U.S.) ordered embassies within range of Iran to convene emergency action committees and report back to Washington on their risk mitigation measures. In Iraq, the U.S. Embassy officially began to draw down non-essential staff. Iran has vowed to strike U.S. forces across the region should its nuclear installations come under attack. With negotiations at an impasse, the region is preparing for conflict ahead of a possible final round of negotiations in Oman on 15 June 2025.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
A ceasefire went into effect on Saturday 10 May following multiple escalatory attacks by both Pakistan and India. Pakistan reopened its airspace the same day while operations resumed at 32 airports in India a day later. The escalation cycle appears to be over with both sides claiming some form of victory.
