An outbreak of the rare Bundibugyo species of the Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring Uganda is challenging regional disease control capabilities. Ongoing conflict and other humanitarian crises in the region have contributed to a delay in the outbreak’s detection and continue to complicate mitigation and containment efforts. While the risk of this outbreak reaching the level of a pandemic is exceedingly low, it will likely persist in the DRC–Uganda border area for weeks or months to come. Policies related to response and containment efforts are likely to disrupt travel to and through the region into the medium term.

The ceasefire has now reached six weeks—longer than the hot phase of the conflict—and an agreement remains elusive. Tehran's terms keep on moving farther away from Washington's, making a diplomatic solution increasingly unlikely. The U.S. would like to return to the pre-war status quo with Iran's military complex weakened and its nuclear ambitions constrained by an agreement that extracts Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU), pauses enrichment for 20 years, and dismantles its nuclear infrastructure. Having survived Operation Epic Fury, the regime wants to set the conditions to prevent future military intervention by locking in its gains, specifically, de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, even if this results in renewed conflict. 

On 18 May, President Trump announced via Truth Social that a planned U.S. military strike on Iran, scheduled for 19 May, had been called off. According to the President, the decision followed direct requests from three Gulf heads of state—Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim, Saudi Crown Prince MBS, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE say they were not aware of any imminent planned strike. President Trump also made it clear that this is not a broad deescalation effort, and on 19 May, told reporters that the postponement of strikes was time-limited: "I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time."

The strike postponement comes as Iran's newest 18 May proposal is more maximalist than prior proposals. Reuters reports that Iran's position now includes ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, war reparations, an ​end to the U.S. naval blockade and exit of U.S. forces from bases near Iran, a lifting of sanctions, and a release of frozen assets. Tehran continues to refuse to discuss the nuclear file.

Also, on 18 May, Iran announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) that it says will oversee transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is attempting to formalize its control over the Strait of Hormuz to make it impossible to return to the pre-war status quo. On 20 May, two Chinese and one South Korean tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly with Iranian permission, in a sign of Iran's growing control over the waterway. 

According to Kann News, joint U.S.–Israel preparations are complete to restart military operations in Iran. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have now spoken twice in the last few days, and Netanyahu has missed a court hearing and is set to miss an important vote on dissolving the Israeli parliament scheduled for 20 May, citing security developments.

Global Guardian assesses a roughly even chance of a return to hostilities within the next two weeks.

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The situation in the Middle East remains in a strategic deadlock as diplomatic momentum has stalled. Over the weekend, Iran presented a counteroffer that did not include the nuclear file. Iranian negotiators have outlined five preconditions for any talks on nuclear enrichment, including: ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon; lifting sanctions; compensation for damages caused by the war; and acceptance of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. These demands are widely seen as non-starters and are increasingly frustrating President Trump, who on 11 May described the ceasefire as being on “life support” and Iran’s written response as “a piece of garbage.” Later that day, CNN reported that some in the White House are warming to the idea of military escalation as a means to break the deadlock.

On the evening of 13 May (local time), President Trump and several cabinet members arrived in Beijing, China, for a high-level bilateral summit. The visit follows meetings between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Chinese officials in Beijing on 06 May. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be among the topics discussed and would be of mutual benefit to both the United States and China. No U.S.-initiated escalation is expected until after the conclusion of the state visit on 15 May.

Meanwhile, the three-week extension of the U.S.-brokered Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is set to expire on 17 May. Reports indicate that Israeli preparations for an expanded ground operation in southern Lebanon have been completed but are pending political authorization. Lebanese and Israeli officials are scheduled to meet for direct negotiations in Washington, DC on 14–15 May. Given the diminishing returns of the ceasefire for Israel amid improved Hezbollah drone tactics, and Lebanon’s insistence that a stable ceasefire must precede broader peace negotiations, little progress is expected.

According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) secretly conducted strikes against Iran. While the UAE has not publicly acknowledged these actions, they would mark the first known instance of an Arab country participating in offensive combat operations against Iran during the war. This development underscores that Iran’s targeting of the UAE is likely to intensify beyond levels seen in the previous phase of the conflict should hostilities resume. 

In the evening hours of 05 May, President Trump halted "Project Freedom" just 36 hours after its initiation, citing diplomatic reasons. This initiative was aimed at reviving the free flow of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The operation included guided missile destroyers as well as over 100 manned and unmanned aircraft for overwatch to create a security corridor on the south side of the Strait. 

The past 24 hours have seen three major security events spanning the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East. Each underscores the risks to travelers, business continuity, and infrastructure. While the frequency and intensity of these threats appear to be growing each year, there are concrete steps corporate security teams can take to mitigate risks for everyone from the CEO and Board of Directors to traveling employees and office personnel. These can include executive protection, secure transportation, residential security teams, emergency response capabilities, and security assessments.

On 30 April, Iran sent the United States a revised proposal to end the conflict via Pakistan. The details of this proposal are unknown. When responding to the press about the status of talks, President Trump told reporters on 01 May that "I'm not sure if they ever get there." The new proposal comes after President Trump reportedly rejected Iran's previous proposal sent on 26 April that omitted the nuclear file.

Over the weekend, Iran conducted a flurry of diplomatic activity amid the current stalemate. The U.S. naval blockade continued, with U.S. CENTCOM reporting that it had directed 38 ships to turn around, and Iran still maintains that no direct negotiations can occur under a blockade. Nonetheless, indirect bilateral talks appear to still be ongoing.

A delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan, Oman, and arrived in Russia in the early hours of 27 April. According to an Axios report, Iran’s counterproposal delivered through Pakistani intermediaries did not include the nuclear issue, instead, it focused on ending the dual Strait of Hormuz blockades and ending the war. Per reports, Iran’s talks in Oman centered on "ways to ensure safe transit that is to benefit of all dear neighbors." Iran’s talks in Russia are expected to focus on the nuclear file, with Russia to potentially act as a future interlocutor and agreement guarantor.

Iran’s negotiation strategy is now predicated on formally ending the war before moving to the thornier topics of the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file. With neither side willing to give up its primary bargaining chip of curtailing access to the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue—one of President Trump’s fundamental concerns—is unlikely to be addressed at the negotiating table under the current “no war, no peace” dynamic. The question remains how long this phase can continue without further escalation or one side backing down on key demands. President Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Iran with his top national security and foreign policy team today.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a small negotiating team are reportedly expected to arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, to revive talks. On 22 April, Axios reported that President Trump was willing to give Iran three to five days to return to the negotiation table with a unified position. Iran's outward position over the last several days has been that it would not rejoin talks while the U.S. blockade is in place. At this time, it is unclear if an American negotiating team will also travel to Pakistan. Nonetheless, the reports of Araghchi's trip are a positive signal. 

The issue still remains that both Iran and the United States view each other's demands as surrender terms. This leaves two broad sets of outcomes: The U.S. can keep the diplomatic channel open amid its economic pressure campaign, or it can either resume strikes on Iran or ask Israel to resume the campaign. The status quo option is not without its risks. The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is on shaky ground, and President Trump's shoot-and-kill order on Iranian fast boats laying mines could be tested by Iran, amid growing impatience. With the USS George H.W. Bush now in the region and President Trump facing a 01 May deadline from Congress, there is a real possibility that the United States could end the ceasefire at any moment. 

The conflict has entered a "no war, no peace" stage of strategic ambiguity. With less than four hours until the ceasefire deadline, on the afternoon of 21 April (local time), President Trump announced an indefinite extension, citing internal Iranian divisions and ordering the continuation of the blockade. The extension came after both sides walked away from talks set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The nuclear issue appears to remain the key sticking point amid major internal divisions between Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi. According to Axios, Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to give clear instructions to negotiators, leaving no final authority to settle the disputes between the regime's hardliners and pragmatists.

As negotiations remain in limbo, U.S. military cargo flights have seen a large surge. During the ceasefire, over 800 cargo flights were tracked throughout the region. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) aircraft carrier appears to be north of Madagascar en route to the Arabian Sea, after an onboard aircraft transmitted its position, according to open-source flight tracking data.

With the blockade remaining in place, attritional and economic pressure has been placed on Iran. In the early hours of 22 April, the IRGC Navy attacked two vessels off the coast of Iran, showcasing its initial response to the new "no war, no peace" paradigm. It is unclear how long either side is willing to remain in this phase without escalating to improve leverage. The situation remains volatile.