It has been 28 days since the United States (U.S.) and Iran last exchanged fire. Axios reported last night that Secretary Rubio has been telling his foreign counterparts that "for the time being" the U.S. is expected to focus on economic sanctions and renewed diplomacy rather than additional strikes. When combined with yesterday's news that the U.S. is returning Foreign Service Officers (FSO) to U.S. Embassies in the region, the outlook for decreased risk of renewed conflict grows more positive. 

• Global Guardian recommends firms carefully consider travel to the region amid lessened risk of renewed conflict in the near term. 
  
• The 28-day streak appears likely to continue; however, an "October Surprise" from Iran remains a possibility as noted later in this update.
  

EL NIÑO | INDIA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

On 11 August, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council made it clear that Iran remains steadfast in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. ends the blockade, releases frozen funds, and conflict ends in Lebanon and Gaza. The statement comes two days after Trump told Axios news that he is prepared to let economic pressure build on Iran, rather than ordering a new military offensive.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the "perimeters of a deal" on the Strait of Hormuz had been agreed to, and that he suspended planned major strikes at the request of Iran and "other Middle Eastern countries" to allow for further negotiations. This was the second weekend in a row where major strikes were called off. Reporting from Reuters suggests U.S. interceptor stockpiles are running low and could be why the escalatory strikes were called off, as the U.S. would not be in a strong position to defend its assets or allies in the region.

• Global Guardian maintains that firms should reconsider non-essential travel to the region as "escalation whiplash" remains constant.
• A resumption of Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the region is possible. This could include the targeting of airports, hotels, power plants, desalination plants, and petroleum facilities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, especially if the U.S. does carry out a previously threatened "massive attack."
  

On 28 July in the evening hours, Iran launched a surprise missile attack against American forces in Jordan, ending a five-day mutual pause on direct attacks. During the lull, Iranian partners in Yemen and Iraq launched strikes against Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. In response, the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia carried out joint air strikes on sites belonging to Iran-backed militia groups across Iraq, including targets in Baghdad, Nineveh, Diyala, Karbala, Kirkuk, Basra, and Wasit, reportedly killing 20.

• Global Guardian maintains that firms should reconsider non-essential travel to the region.
• A resumption of Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the region is possible. This could include the targeting of airports, hotels, power plants, desalination plants, and petroleum facilities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.  

The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate vertically, horizontally, and rhetorically with increasing signs that the United States (U.S.) is poised to launch a major attack on Iran this weekend.

• Global Guardian assesses that major U.S. strikes on Iran are likely to commence after U.S. markets close.
• Global Guardian continues to caution against non-essential travel to the Gulf region and recommends that firms with regional assets confirm business continuity and evacuation plans.
• The U.S. State Department's Worldwide Caution originally issued on 18 July was updated on 22 July to highlight risks from potential airspace disruptions and flight cancellations, indicating imminent activity.

The U.S. military has now struck Iran for 10 straight days, targeting military installations threatening tanker ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and other sites in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Qeshm, and other southern and western areas. Iranian infrastructure was also targeted, including bridges, rail links, telecommunications towers, and water service sites in Hormozgan over this period. As a result of the escalation, the U.S. State Department issued a Worldwide Caution on 18 July (updated on 20 July) stating that "Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation." While there has been no specific or imminent threat identified, the caution advises increased awareness for Americans abroad and in the Middle East. 

MIDDLE EAST | COLOMBIA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Following Iran’s continued targeting of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, on 08 July President Trump declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran. The move came after United States (U.S.) forces struck Iranian coastal sites involved in the attacks on shipping. Since then, the U.S. conducted a second and larger wave of strikes on Iran, spurring a wider Iranian response. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) claims to have struck over 170 Iranian targets in the last 48 hours. The region has returned to a “no war, no peace” paradigm, with the potential to spiral back into full conflict.

One week after two major earthquakes struck northern Venezuela on 24 June 2026, the mismanagement of disaster response by Interim President Delcy Rodríguez’s government is accelerating collapse in public confidence and fueling anti-Chavismo sentiment, increasing the likelihood of anti-government demonstrations and unrest.