As predicted, Israel's air force conducted multiple strikes on Iranian targets across the country overnight on 12-13 June following breakdown in talks between the U.S and Iran over its nuclear program.
Targets included military installations, air bases, and nuclear facilities. Israel killed Hossein Salami, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC); Mohammad Bagheri, Iranian Armed Forces chief of staff; and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Forces, along with other officers and scientists in attacks on Tehran and elsewhere.
As of morning hours EST, Israeli strikes were still ongoing, targeting the Natanz nuclear site and military operations at Mehrabad and Bushehr airports. Israel has said they are planning for 14 days of military operations if needed, while President Trump issued a statement saying, "it will only get worse" for Iran and says a deal must be made "before there is nothing left."
Iran retaliated with a mass drone swarm, but almost all were intercepted before making it to Israeli airspace with remaining drones shot down by Israel's Iron Dome air defense system. The IRGC has pledged a "proportionate and decisive" response at a time of its choosing. Israel is bracing for several major waves of ballistic missile barrages.
Situation Report
- Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iran and Iraq all closed airspace with reopening to be determined based on the situation, which remains fluid.
- Israel-Jordan border crossings are closed, and the Taba Israel-Egypt border crossing is the sole exfil route available for non-Israelis.
- Multiple airlines have cancelled flights to Israel and banned flights into regional airspace.
- Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has appointed replacements for the multiple military leaders killed in Israeli strikes.
- The Israeli embassy in Stockholm said that missions around the world will close and cease consular services amid the ongoing conflict. They will reportedly remain closed until further notice.
- Iran's Foreign Minister released a statement blaming the U.S. as well, saying "the U.S. is responsible for the crime committed against us, the attack would not have been possible without the coordination and green light from Washington."
ANalysis
It appears that the 15 June negotiations in Oman were part of a deception campaign aimed at giving Iranian leadership a false sense of security. Israel's military campaign targeting Iran will continue for the next several weeks. It is wide in scope and likely aimed at regime change or full capitulation in a maximalist agreement over its weapon programs and axis of proxies. Israeli covert operatives are active in Iran, and Israel maintains near-complete control over Iranian airspace. The question remains if Israel can fully eliminate Iran's nuclear program, including its subterranean Fordow facility, without American assistance.
Iran does not have many practical options to respond to Israel beyond ballistic missile saturation and unconventional attacks in the form of terrorism, targeted assassination attempts, and covert operations. Cruise missiles and drones have been completely ineffective. A ballistic missile attack targeting Israeli air bases, critical infrastructure, or the Dimona nuclear reactor is expected in the coming days.
In addition, Iran's statement holding the U.S. responsible for Israeli action portends likely targeting of U.S. assets in the region. These could include diplomatic outposts, military installations, and commercial interests in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar—though Iraq is the most likely option.
Recommendations
- Avoid all non-essential travel to the region.
- Consider evacuating expats from Israel and Iraq.
- Prepare for contingencies to include evacuation in the event of conflict.
- Listen to government updates and account for potential disruptions to travel due to evolving measures and announcements.
- Establish contingencies to promote business continuity, including stocking essential goods and ensuring a power supply, due to the potential disruptions to such services in the event of an armed escalation or sustained airspace closures.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Evacuation planning and execution (air, land, sea)
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
