The U.S. military has now struck Iran for 10 straight days, targeting military installations threatening tanker ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and other sites in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Qeshm, and other southern and western areas. Iranian infrastructure was also targeted, including bridges, rail links, telecommunications towers, and water service sites in Hormozgan over this period. As a result of the escalation, the U.S. State Department issued a Worldwide Caution on 18 July (updated on 20 July) stating that "Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation." While there has been no specific or imminent threat identified, the caution advises increased awareness for Americans abroad and in the Middle East.
On 20 July, Yemen's Houthis announced an immediate maritime blockade on Saudi ports, threatening Red Sea navigation and a key Saudi oil export hub. While the Houthis do not possess a proper navy, they have enough fast attack boats, drones, and missiles to credibly threaten shipping in the Red Sea and Saudi ports. This action could draw in Saudi Arabia, triggering a wider regional conflict.
Separately, the U.S. is maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports through enforcement measures to either disable offending ships or redirect them. Iran continues to target ships in the Strait with multiple confirmed incidents of tankers sustaining damage due to projectiles or mines as Iran seeks to enforce its own control over the shipping route.
Iran has expanded its own targeting footprint across the region, hitting military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq with missiles and drones. Desalination plants in Kuwait were hit twice over this past weekend. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on 18 July that two service members had been killed, one missing, and four others injured during Iranian missile and drone attacks in Jordan the previous day. President Trump vowed to hit back against Iran many times over in retaliation.
While there are reports that Pakistani and Qatari mediators are working feverishly to bring Iran and the U.S. back to the negotiating table with a potential 10-day temporary ceasefire, this current escalation cycle is unlikely to end soon given the failure of the previous ceasefire and negotiation period.
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Airspace in the Gulf remains open, despite brief closures in Kuwait and Qatar. Major flight delays are being reported throughout the region. Anticipate airspace closures should the conflict return to March and April levels of fighting.
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Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings are falling quickly: there were just 53 vessel transits in the week through 20 July, a 66% drop from the previous week.
A return to full-scale conflict is becoming more and more likely. The Trump administration remains constrained by domestic and global economic concerns. However, it is unlikely that air and naval power alone will defeat Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait. There is a real risk that the limited campaign to protect shipping spirals into a broader conflict. Possible scenarios include:
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Status quo: Air strikes against Iran’s military, leadership, and infrastructure (related to military purposes). Iran attacks U.S. military targets and slowly starts hitting non-oil and gas infrastructure (factories, data centers, power plants, water treatment/desalination) in the Gulf.
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Infrastructure war: U.S. strikes on Iranian electrical and water infrastructure, such as dams and desalination plants; Iran responds in kind and also begins to attack air and seaports. The next escalation rung would be to attack Iran’s petrochemical infrastructure, which would then result in Iran attacking oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf.
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Limited invasion: U.S. inserts boots on the ground to clear strategic terrain (islands, littoral firing positions) or to capture Kharg Island.
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Declare victory: U.S. agrees to giving Iran some say in co-managing the Strait of Hormuz with other Gulf nations and a ceasefire is reached.
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