The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate vertically, horizontally, and rhetorically with increasing signs that the United States (U.S.) is poised to launch a major attack on Iran this weekend.
- Global Guardian assesses that major U.S. strikes on Iran are likely to commence after U.S. markets close.
- Global Guardian continues to caution against non-essential travel to the Gulf region and recommends that firms with regional assets confirm business continuity and evacuation plans.
- The U.S. State Department's Worldwide Caution originally issued on 18 July was updated on 22 July to highlight risks from potential airspace disruptions and flight cancellations, indicating imminent activity.
On 23 July, U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios he was considering a “massive attack” on Iran. This comes as reports indicate that President Trump is becoming pessimistic about a diplomatic solution with Iran, and a senior White House official told the Wall Street Journal that the president was in “revenge mode” against Tehran. Iran reportedly rejected the latest ceasefire proposal that was conveyed during Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's visit to Tehran on 23 July.
Earlier in the week, President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and powerplants for every ship Iran strikes, threatened to punish Iran and the Houthis in Yemen for future Houthi strikes on ships in the Red Sea, and warned that the U.S. would soon bomb the Iranian underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain.
Behind the rhetoric, the U.S. has surged military assets to the region with a major logistics air bridge observed over the last 48 hours. Special operations forces have been deployed, additional medical staff have been sent to Germany, additional aerial refueling tankers have arrived in Israel (bringing the total to around 100), several fighter squadrons have been staged, and assets at the air bases closest to Iran are being redeployed in anticipation of major Iranian reprisals.
In the last 24 hours, the British, French, German, and New Zealand embassies in Tehran have been evacuated, reminiscent of the lead-up to the onset of Operation Epic Fury in late February. The German government has also advised its citizens to leave Iran immediately. Relatedly, several Israeli municipalities have opened public bomb shelters, though the Israeli Homefront Command has yet to upgrade its emergency guidance.
Several airlines have canceled flights to the region or extended ongoing flight suspensions. Air France extended suspension of flights to Dubai International Airport (DXB) through 04 August and Riyadh King Khalid International Airport (RUH) through 31 July. Japan Airlines canceled flights to Doha's Hamad International Airport (DOH) through 31 October. Aegean suspended flights to DXB through 23 October. KLM suspended all flights to DXB, RUH, and Dammam International Airport (DMM).
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Airspace in the Gulf remains open, despite brief closures in Kuwait and Qatar.
Global Guardian assesses that the U.S. attacks will focus on Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear program, or expeditionary raids on Iran's strategic islands, or a combination of them.
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Energy Infrastructure: The U.S. reportedly has already struck Iran's Bidboland Gas Refinery (its largest) and several power substations responsible for powering Iran's southern missile sites. The U.S. could choose to attack Iranian oil export facilities including Kharg Island or the power plants that supply Tehran. Iran would likely respond with counter-value strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure.
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Nuclear Program: Pickaxe Mountain would likely be the primary target, though it is unclear if massive ordnance penetrators (MOPs) could reach the site apart from the entrance alone. Iran has pledged massive retaliation in this event. Iran may respond by attacking regional power plants, including the UAE's nuclear reactor or desalination plants. Iran has already repeatedly attacked Kuwaiti power and desalination facilities.
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Expeditionary raids: The only way to remove Iran's negotiation leverage and enable freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is to capture strategic terrain along Iran's southern coast and island chain. This would likely produce major U.S. casualties, and it is unclear if there are currently sufficient troop numbers to execute this mission at this current stage.
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