Despite recent diplomatic activity, Global Guardian assesses that kinetic hostilities with Iran are likely to resume as early as next week, following the United States midterm elections on 03 November.
According to a new Wall Street Journal report, the U.S. warned its Gulf Arab partners to prepare for renewed conflict with Iran, and that President Trump is “leaning toward” a major attack on Iranian energy and nuclear sites following the midterm elections. The report also states that additional Patriot air defense batteries are being deployed to Israel and that troops and materiel in the region are redeploying to bases less vulnerable to Iranian counterattacks. On 23 October, Trump suggested that the U.S. “may do another little Epic Fury.”
Global Guardian is now broadly recommending against non-essential travel to the Middle East ahead of a likely return to conflict.
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Global Guardian advises against all travel via Saudi airports, with the exception of Medina's Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport (MED).
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Continue to avoid all travel to southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
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Firms with operations or personnel in the Middle East should review business continuity plans and reconsider upcoming travel due to the increasing likelihood of the war with Iran resuming in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the conflict in Saudi Arabia and Yemen continues. Operations at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) officially resumed on 25 October after a two-week closure, though Global Guardian advises avoiding all use of this airport.
On 26 October, a delegation from the Mecca Pact countries, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, met in Tehran with Iranian representatives, including Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei. The Mecca Pact delegation was composed of Saudi defense minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, Ibrahim Kalin, head of the Turkish national intelligence agency, and Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. The meetings concluded without any formal joint announcements, suggesting that nothing concrete was agreed upon. While the contents of the meetings are unknown, an unverified Israel Hayom report suggests that the Saudis offered the Houthis USD $1 billion via Iran for a ceasefire.
The seniority of the delegation underscores the extent to which Saudi Arabia is intent on avoiding a two-front threat and opening a diplomatic off-ramp for its conflict with the Houthis in Yemen. It is also likely that the seniority of the delegation will embolden Iran, given that while U.S. and Israeli leaders speak of regime change, the brother of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince is compelled to visit Tehran.
These meetings come as both regional countries and diplomatic circles brace for possible conflict. On 27 October, the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) issued updated travel advisories for Israel, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine, warning of major travel disruptions, citing the risk of sudden escalation and a “deeply unpredictable” situation. That same day, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres declared that “The risk to have the combination of an overwhelming military attack on Iran, and an overwhelming military attack by Iran on the countries of the Gulf, needs to be avoided at all costs."
Russian President Vladimir Putin also held meetings with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian and the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in Moscow. At a campaign rally in Lubbock, Texas, the same day, President Trump made the remark that “You’ll see Iran in a couple of weeks, if you don’t mind,” when discussing his achievements.
Also on 27 October, Houthi officials claimed an attack that triggered fires at Ras Tanura oil refinery, Eastern Province. Saudi officials did not confirm the attack; however, flight disruptions were reported at Dammam King Fahd Airport (DMM) after Saudi-led coalition forces intercepted missiles fired toward the area.
In the early hours of 28 October, Saudi Arabia issued early warning alerts for Yanbu and Jeddah. Also on 28 October, several explosions were heard in the vicinity of Aden International Airport (ADE) after Houthi forces ordered the airport's evacuation. This marks the fifth attack on ADE this month.
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