On 18 October, United States (U.S.) diplomatic missions in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Iraq, Israel, Bahrain, UAE, and Yemen issued security alerts warning of the broader threat posed by Iran, shifting attention away from the Houthi-Saudi conflict and toward the risk of a wider regional war. It’s possible this new advisory was issued in relation to the Al Jazeera-reported U.S. retaliatory strikes on IRGC-N Konarak Naval Base on 18 October that the U.S. later denied. It is also possible that the embassy alerts are an indicator that phase II of the war will resume in the coming days or weeks.
With a resumption of war looming, diplomatic visits to Tehran increased over the last 72 hours, involving Russia, Pakistan, Qatar, and possibly the UAE. However, gaps remain significant, especially over sequencing. Iran maintains its seven demands, all elements of the June Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and the U.S. demands to begin negotiations over Iran’s nuclear file before agreeing to any of Iran’s conditions. Iran rejected proposals to transfer Iran’s enriched uranium abroad and ruled out negotiations before the United States takes concrete steps to restore trust, including an end to the blockade. Despite the intensification of diplomatic efforts, a breakthrough remains highly unlikely.
An Emirati news outlet reported that White House officials are discussing options for striking Iran’s Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export conduit, with officials from the Department of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency ahead of the midterm elections. According to the report, strikes on Kharg Island would be meant to help compel Iran into accepting concessions, as its main negotiating positions have not changed in months. Global Guardian maintains that a resumption of the Iran War is unlikely before the 03 November U.S. midterm elections. However, the likelihood of renewed conflict has increased over the last two weeks.
Global Guardian continues to recommend against non-essential travel to Saudi Arabia.
-
Global Guardian advises against non-essential travel to Riyadh and all travel to Saudi airports, with the exception of Medina's Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport (MED). Travelers in Riyadh seeking to leave the country should consider alternative options such as overland transit to Qatar or the UAE.
-
Continue to avoid southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
-
Firms with operations or personnel in the Middle East should review business continuity plans and reconsider upcoming travel due to the increasing likelihood of the war with Iran resuming in the coming weeks.
The Future Investment Initiative (FII) Institute announced on 19 October that its flagship conference, scheduled for 26–29 October in Riyadh, would be postponed until 2027. The move comes as the Houthis continue to target Saudi cities on a daily basis. Flights at Riyadh King Khalid Airport (RUH/OERK) continue to be canceled until further notice. On 18 October, a Houthi projectile struck a residential area in Najran, wounding six Saudi civilians, seven Filipino nationals (four critically), and damaging three homes and three vehicles.
Also on 18 October, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, where the UAE reportedly agreed to resume payments to some southern anti-Houthi Yemeni forces, including the Giants Brigades. The UAE’s renewed involvement in Yemen opens the future possibility of Houthi attacks on the UAE.
Meanwhile, Israel is at its highest level of military readiness, having repositioned some of its air defense systems north and announced a freeze on soldiers' leave beginning on 22 October. Washington has warned Hezbollah via Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam that joining potential fighting between Israel and Iran would invite a harsh Israeli campaign.
On 20 October, Secretary of War Peter Hegseth visited Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, where U.S. fighter and refueling aircraft are positioned, for an unannounced meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss sensitive intelligence and operational information. The meeting comes as a new Financial Times report revealed that Israel had planned a multi-day bombing campaign scheduled for the weekend of 10 October against Iran’s nuclear sites and energy infrastructure. The report cited President Trump’s opposition to strikes before the U.S. midterms as the reason for shelving the plan.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
