SITUATION UPDATE - WEEK 9

The newest phase in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to take shape as Russian troops south of Izyum made slow but steady progress toward Slovyansk. Elsewhere, explosions rocked Transnistria—a pro-Russian breakaway state within Moldova—raising fears of a false flag attack on Ukrainian territory originating from the west. In the south, Russian forces defended captured territory from Ukrainian counteroffensives with intense artillery fire.

Tactical Update

• Russian forces likely led the false flag attacks in Transnistria on 25-27 April. Russia may be seeking to lay the foundation for Transnistria to join the war to support Russian troops with reserve forces or as a platform to launch attacks on Ukrainian territory. Transnistria is unlikely to develop into a significant new front in the conflict, but could destabilize Moldova, putting additional pressure on NATO to divert aid from Ukraine. Alternatively, Transnistria could allow a Russian force to stage limited attacks on the Ukrainian city of Odesa to cause panic and potentially benefit Russian activities in southern Ukraine.
• Russian airstrikes continue to target Ukraine’s transport infrastructure to slow down foreign military aid to the front lines in south and eastern Ukraine. Recent strikes targeted a railway bridge connecting neighboring Romania to Odesa and railway facilities in Ukraine’s central Vinnytsia region. As many transport hubs are also passenger hubs, danger to passenger travel remains extreme throughout the country despite ground fighting becoming localized to the south and east.
• The United States announced an extra $332 million of military aid to Ukraine, bringing total U.S. security financing provided to Ukraine since the start of the invasion to more than $3.7 billion. The previous military aid package, which was announced on 14 April, included 18 American 155mm howitzer cannons and anti-artillery radars for the first time. U.S. officials have likewise confirmed that Ukrainian troops are being trained to use the new equipment in an undisclosed location outside of Ukraine.
• Improvements to Ukraine’s artillery capabilities are expected to have a significant impact on the newest phase of the invasion due to Russia’s strategic shift away from assaulting urban centers such as Kyiv toward capturing the wide-open plains of the Donbas.

FLEEING DANGER: GLOBAL GUARDIAN CEO DALE BUCKNER SPEAKS TO RAHUL TANDON ON BBC BUSINESS DAILY PODCAST

"No one would look at Paris, France and say, ‘That would be an emergency,’ but sure enough, we had the Paris attacks in 2015 and it was real. No one looks at Turkey and saw a Turkey coup coming. No one sees the next earthquake, the next hurricane, the next tsunami, no one knows what happens tomorrow and no one knows where it’s going to happen."

In a recent interview on the BBC's Business Daily podcast, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner shares insight into how the team communicates with and prepares clients for evacuation out of Ukraine—and in other times of crisis—and the continuous growth the firm has seen as corporations look to protect their people and assets amid uncertainty in the world and an evolving threat landscape.

Click below to hear the full podcast. If interested in skipping ahead, Global Guardian segment begins at 11:40.

Russian missiles targeted warehouses and railways in Lviv on 18 April to stall arms shipments from the West as the invasion enters its newest phase. Russia’s offensive is now centered on capturing the Donbas—the region in east Ukraine claimed by pro-Russian separatist republics—in time for Russia’s national Victory Day holiday on May 9. While artillery strikes south of Izyum have attempted to pave the way for Russian ground troops, entrenched Ukrainian forces in the region and poor coordination have so far slowed Russia’s advance.

Tactical Update

• Russian forces are capturing villages as they move south from Izyum toward the town of Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces are fortified in Slovyansk and the fight to take the city is expected to be intense.
• The root causes of poor coordination and low morale affecting Russian operations continue to impact Russian forces, suggesting that this newest offensive will be plagued with the same operational issues that impeded Russia’s offensives around Kyiv.
• On 18 April, Russian missiles struck targets in Lviv in the deadliest strike on west Ukraine since the start of the invasion. Russia cautioned in March that weapons shipments would present legitimate military targets, extending the threat of war far beyond the front lines in the east.
• Czech defense companies will repair Ukrainian military equipment that has been damaged or needs to be serviced in the newest announcement of defense collaboration between a NATO country and Ukraine. The risk that Russia will target infrastructure sending repaired Ukrainian military equipment back into the war and prompt a response from Czech officials is extreme considering the Russian military’s recent strikes against locations of suspected weapons shipments in western Ukraine. 

With Russia's renewed offensive looming, the U.S. and several European NATO partners have begun to arm Ukraine with more consequential weapons systems, breaking previous norms. It is unclear if they will be able to shift the balance of forces in favor of Ukraine. What is clear is that the Putin regime's survival is on the line now that Moscow has downsized its political objectives. 

While Russia would still like to maintain territory in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (north of the Dnipro), given Russia's operational challenges—limited manpower, poor morale, disunified command and control, improper maintenance—it is probable that it will need to invest the bulk of its remaining assets to secure its main objectives of capturing the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Luhansk and Donetsk and to hold onto Kherson south of the Dnipro river to secure freshwater access to Crimea. 

Tactical Update

• The Russian forces that withdrew from the Kyiv region have not yet been reintroduced into eastern or northeastern Ukraine to fight. Russian forces failed to make significant advances in continued assaults on Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Rubizhne in eastern Ukraine.
• Sweden and Finland are expected to apply for NATO membership in late June. The accession process is not instantaneous and will like take 4–12 months. Given the state of the Russian military, we do not assess a kinetic Russian response to be likely. 
• Germany is mulling the transfer of 50 Leopard-1 battle tanks to Ukraine in the next six weeks. Similarly, the U.S. is considering sending Ukraine Mi-17 helicopters, and Howitzer cannons. This comes as Slovakia is moving closer to providing Soviet-era MiG-29 jets after it transferred an S-300 anti-air system last week. Anecdotally, heavy weapons have been seen on trains moving east in Poland. Ultimately, these platforms may make it more feasible for Ukraine to reconstitute some of its lost territory, but not in the short term. 

Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner Sits Down with Liz Claman on Fox News Radio

"What we thought the opportunity in the market was: To be comprehensive, do it all, so it's coordinated; don't deploy expats after the fact because you might not be able to get in—meaning have teams on the ground that speak the language, understand the culture, and can maneuver...and lastly, ensure that we would go into these kinds of crises where everyone else was contractually afraid to do it."

In a recent interview on Fox News Radio's Everyone Talks to Liz Claman, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner shares his background, including why he choose a career in the military, and how he leveraged his experience to start Global Guardian—and ultimately fill a void left by traditional insurance models to effectively support businesses across the world and their employees. Fast forward to today, Dale discusses the current situation in Ukraine and Global Guardian's evacuation efforts—including one high-profile evacuation in particular early on—and offers insight into what's coming down the road with regards to this crisis.

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• At approximately 08:24 local time, a shooting occurred on a subway train inside the 36th Street Station (Sunset Park neighborhood) in Brooklyn, New York.

• As the northbound N train entered the station, a lone assailant donned a gas mask before deploying a smoke grenade and opening fire.

• 10 people were shot on the train and platform. Five of those shot are in critical but stable condition – no victims are in life-threatening condition. An additional six people were injured by smoke inhalation, shrapnel, and in the chaos following the attack.

• A manhunt is ongoing for the assailant, who escaped and remains unidentified. Police found a weapon in the station but it is unknown if the suspect is still armed.  

• The incident is not being investigated as a terror attack, and no explosive devices remain at the scene or in the rest of the subway system. 

• Authorities have advised the public to avoid the area between 3rd Ave and 5th Ave from 20th St to 40th St due to the ongoing police response.

• Subway service on D, N, and R trains in parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan are suspended and major delays on D, F, M, N, Q, and R trains are expected.

• While the subject is still at large, the incident appears to be isolated.

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• China's "Covid-Zero" policy continues, with at least 23 cities under partial or full lockdown, including Shanghai, where the city and it's more than 25 million residents have been living under total lockdown for more than 10 days. Residents are not allowed to leave their homes except for COVID-19 testing. Protests have broken out in various parts of the city as residents begin to run low on food.
• Outside of China, cases continue to fall or stay flat in much of southeast Asia. South Korea, which had the most COVID-19 cases per-capita globally in the month of March, has just now recorded fewer than 100,000 daily new cases. 
• The highly contagious Omicron subvariant known as BA.2 is responsible for the recent waves in southeast Asia and Europe. It is more transmissible than the original Omicron variant but does not cause more severe illness. BA.2 now makes up a majority of cases globally, including in the U.S., where a second Omicron wave is likely in the coming months. 
• Multiple countries have begun rolling out a 2nd booster dose for the elderly or otherwise vulnerable populations in an effort to combat waning vaccine effectiveness. 
• Outside of several east Asian nations, most countries have dropped restrictive entry policies. 

Former Green Beret helps nearly 8,000 Ukrainians to safety: 'Always looking for the safe zone'

"Unlike my competitors in the insurance market, I don't deploy expats, meaning ex-Secret Service, ex-FBI … I don't deploy people like that. Our teams are standing there. I like to think we were there before the war, we'll be there during the war, and we're going to be there after the war."

In a recent interview on Fox Digital, CEO Dale Buckner weighs in on Global Guardian's efforts in Ukraine, helping the employees of clients—including their families and extended families—evacuate the country since even before the Russian invasion. Dale also shares details about the on-the-ground situation from Global Guardian's local agents.

The U.S. and EU continue to prepare new sanctions against Russia in light of the alleged war crimes perpetrated by Russian troops in Bucha. Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues in the area between Izyum and Donetsk as Russia threatens to envelop a sizeable portion of Ukraine's forces. 

Tactical Update

• In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are slowly advancing from Izyum near Kharkiv to target Slovyansk. Capturing or managing to bypass the city will allow these troops to link up with other Russian forces in the Donbas and encircle Ukrainian defenders, likely resulting in a Russian victory in the region. 
• Russian forces from Kyiv and Chernihiv have largely completed their withdrawal to Belarus and Russia.
• In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continue to progress near Kherson—the first city Russia conquered—and may soon be able to reestablish control over the western bank of the Dnieper river. 

Diplomatic Updates

• Diplomatic relations between Russia and the West continue to deteriorate as the U.S. imposes additional sanctions on Sberbank, Alfa Bank, and President Putin's two daughters. 
• On 05 April, European countries including Estonia, Latvia, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Spain, and Denmark expelled over 200 Russian diplomats in less than 24 hours under allegations of illegal intelligence activities. Russia has not yet responded, though in-kind dismissals from foreign embassies in Moscow are expected, following Russia’s response to similar actions in the past.
• Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have also coordinated to seal their respective borders with Belarus and Russia by the end of the week. Further negotiations are underway to block railways into Belarus and Russia as the nations advance stricter policies to curtail trade supporting Russia.
• On 05 April, a Wall Street Journal report revealed that the Czech Republic and Slovakia have quietly begun an effort to leverage their respective military-industrial bases to support Ukraine. The Czech Republic has been providing small numbers of T-72 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and Howitzers to Ukraine for several weeks. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are also considering repairing damaged Ukrainian equipment.
• The—albeit small—deliveries of heavy weaponry to Ukraine (and possible repairs) will be needed to mount an effective counterattack on the Russian/separatist-controlled territory in the Donbas. Yet, unlike the proposed S-300 anti-air system delivery, the provision of this materiel (in limited quantities) is not enough to upset the balance of forces, diminishing the likelihood that it will be treated by Russia as a NATO escalation in need of response.

Israel is experiencing its worst terror wave in the last decade. At the end of March, 11 people were killed in three separate attacks, all occurring within one week. In response, the Israeli military and police launched an operation to thwart future attacks, arresting terror suspects in the West Bank. Military chief Aviv Kohavi said on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had foiled nearly a dozen terror attacks in the past two weeks, amid heightened tensions. The situation is highly volatile as the holy month of Ramadan (01 April–01 May) and the holy week of Passover (15 April–23 April) overlap this year, turning Jerusalem into an even larger flashpoint.

What is especially striking about two of the three terror attacks is that the assailants were Israeli-Arabs and conducted by individuals (as opposed to organized cells), making the attacks near-impossible to prevent. Tensions between Israel’s Jewish and Arab communities have been high since last year’s war in Gaza when there were numerous incidents of inter-communal mob violence in mixed Arab-Jewish communities. These attacks combined with the subsequent Israeli far-right backlash, proactive government anti-terror operations, and the potential for Palestinian terror groups to up the ante, make the current situation highly precarious.     

Downside Risks

Last year, during Ramadan, clashes that flared between Israeli forces and Palestinians in Jerusalem led to 11 days of devastating conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In 2014, a chain of events that included the kidnapping and murder of Israeli youths, a large-scale anti-terror operation, and a revenge killing of a Palestinian teen, helped spark a war with Hamas. With many actors who stand to benefit from further attacks, a set of negative incentives exist for further violence, particularly in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv.       

Recent Events 

02 April – Israeli troops killed three Palestinian Islamic Jihad gunmen who were allegedly en-route from the Jenin area to carry out an attack in Israel during a raid. 

31 March – Israeli commandos killed two Palestinian gunmen during a rare daytime raid, following a night where 31 alleged suspects were arrested in Jenin. 

29 March – A Palestinian gunman shot dead five civilians across multiple crime scenes in Beni Barak, just east of Tel-Aviv. The al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades – the armed wing of the Palestinian Fatah movement – claimed responsibility for the attack.

27 March – A pair of Israeli-Arab gunmen attacked Israeli police in Hadera yesterday, killing two officers and wounding at least five civilians. The militants released a video prior to the attack claiming their allegiance to ISIS.

22 March – In Beer Sheva, an Israeli-Arab terrorist rammed into a cyclist before exiting the vehicle and stabbing passersby in a nearby mall, leaving four dead and two injured. The assailant had ties to the Islamic State.

19 March – A Palestinian assailant stabbed and injured an Israeli jogger on Hebron Road in West Jerusalem.