Strategic UPDATE 

On 18 June, Lithuania began to impose a ground transit ban on EU-sanctioned Russian goods (steel, wood, coal, oil products, heavy machinery, luxury goods, amongst others) coming from Belarus to Kaliningrad, effectively cutting off the exclave from the rest of Russia. On 21 June, Moscow warned that Lithuania will face consequences "in the near future" unless it allows the trains to pass. The only remaining transit route now is by way of the sea through international waters since Russian planes are banned from EU airspace. Russia has few meaningful response options that both fall short of triggering an escalation with NATO and alleviating the strain on its Baltic Oblast.

• Kaliningrad–which is located between Lithuania and Poland along the Baltic sea–is the home of Russia’s Baltic fleet and around one million people.
• As a preliminary show of force, Russia is conducting provocative maneuvers on Estonia's border, violating the NATO member's airspace with helicopters and simulating missile attacks. 

• The most likely responses from Russia will include any or all of the following:
  • Continued aggressive rhetoric
  • Military drills along the borders of the Baltic states
  • Cyber attacks on the public and private sectors in the Baltics and even EU at large
  • Harassment of commercial vessels in the international waters of the Baltic sea
• Ultimately, Russia will likely opt to supply Kaliningrad by sea as it pushes for a settlement with the EU to resume ground transport of sanctioned goods and oil.
• Meanwhile, the slow tempo battle for the Donbas continues in Ukraine with both sides’ capabilities and manpower continuing to be depleted. Though Russia's capture of Luhansk Oblast looks increasingly likely.

War in Ukraine, COVID-19 is changing the security landscape

"These extreme events that were previously thought to have been things of the past have returned with a vengeance. The clustering of such events speaks to the covariate nature of risk in today’s world. From geopolitics to the digital realm, the COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in an era where bad actors at both the state and substate levels are taking advantage of uncertainty."

In a recent article on SecurityInfoWatch.com, Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard outlines the global threats—geopolitical instability, ransomware and cryptocurrency attacks, 3D-printed arms, and the pandemic-fueled increase in crime—continuing to present security challenges for organizations around the world, as highlighted in Global Guardian's 2022 Worldwide Threat Assessment. Michael also offers suggestions for businesses to minimize the potential impact from these threats and protect their people and operations.

BLOOMBERG BALANCE OF POWER INTERVIEW AT 34:30

“...Understanding what is the risk of your personnel in Taiwan, what is the risk of your personnel in Hong Kong, and then of course, the obvious high-risk markets—the question is, do they need to be there? Should their family be there? What is your exposure and do you have a real evacuation plan if things go sideways?"

President and CEO Dale Buckner was featured on Bloomberg Balance of Power with David Westin discussing Global Guardian's recently released Worldwide Threat Assessment and the geopolitical and cyber threats that multi-national companies face, including those stemming from the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

Click below to watch the full video. If interested in skipping ahead, Global Guardian segment begins at 34:30.

Strategic UPDATE 

Russian forces continue to make incremental progress in the east under the cover of overwhelming artillery barrages. The main fighting is concentrated around the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk oblast. Overall, the war has slowed and morphed into an artillery slogfest in the Donbas as Russia has changed its tactics. It is unclear how much longer Ukrainian forces will hold their positions before retreating in Luhansk.

• Per the Kremlin, Russian and separatist forces now control 97% of Luhansk oblast, one of the two regions that comprise the Donbas—the current main objective of Russia's campaign. From a public relations point of view, Moscow will undoubtedly claim a victory that will bring them closer to capturing the entire Luhansk oblast. 
• Over the last week, the U.S. and UK have announced that they will provide Ukraine with M142 and M270 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS). These advanced rocket systems will give the Ukrainian forces the ability to accurately attack Russian forces and artillery far behind their lines (50mi/80km range). When deployed in-theater, these systems will double the current effective range of Ukraine's artillery corps. If more than a symbolic number is given, these weapons could be very helpful for Ukrainian counterattacks and to destroy Russian artillery.
• On 31 May, President Biden penned a New York Times op-ed to help offset the escalation risk associated with providing Ukraine with long-range artillery systems: "So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces. We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders..."
• While Ukrainian Forces have already attacked positions in Russia near the border using Soviet-era weapons platforms, a deliberate or accidental usage of the U.S. or UK-supplied rockets against targets on Russian soil would escalate the situation, as Moscow has repeatedly issued threats regarding this scenario that will be difficult to back down from.
• Additionally, multiple countries have re-opened embassies in Kyiv as risks from the conflict shift east. These include the U.S., India, Sweden, South Korea, and others. 

'You are on your own': Global Guardian CEO warns of digital threats to U.S. businesses

“We are seeing our Fortune 1000 clients reassess who is key and essential, do they need to be there, should their family be deployed to that country, what do those rotations look like, and what is the risk. All of that calculus is being reevaluated globally for the Fortune 1000 and large European headquarters around the world.”

In a recent interview on Yahoo Finance, CEO Dale Buckner shares information about Global Guardian's recently released 2022 Worldwide Threat Assessment, which highlights the top risks Global Guardian has identified for businesses that operate globally. Dale weighs in on geopolitical issues, including the United State's diminishing global power and influence, the risks of ransomware and cryptocurrency attacks, and the increase in crime across the world—and how these threats impact the security and operations of multinational companies.  

Strategic UPDATE 

Few developments occurred along the front in Ukraine as officials inside of Russia again downsized ambitious goals to push entrenched Ukrainian forces out of the Donbas. Russian leadership has begun to justify long-term conflict and occupation in public statements, potentially preparing for some degree of forced mobilization to replace exhausted forces.

• Officials including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have increasingly openly admitted that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is moving slower than anticipated. Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin justified the slow pace by affirming that the goal of the operation is to ensure “Nazism” is “100% eradicated”, indicating that Russia is setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine to justify slower and more measured advances.
• Putin signed legislation on 25 May to simplify obtaining Russian citizenship for those in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine's southern Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Known as ‘passportization’, the process mirrors steps Russia took in the aftermath of the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and signals that Russia is not considering voluntarily returning conquered territory to Ukraine.

 

Leading security firm becomes first duty of care provider on the GSA MAS Contract Vehicle to offer situational awareness and visibility support services to government travelers

(McLean, VA) May 23, 2022 – Global Guardian, a leading and veteran-led global Duty of Care firm, announced today that it has been awarded a General Services Administration (GSA) Multiple Award Schedule (MAS) Contract (CONTRACT #47QTCA22D006D). This award gives all Federal Civilian Agencies (FCA), Department of Defense (DOD) Agencies, and state and local governments the ability to purchase Global Guardian’s travel security services for their employees through the GSA Schedule. It is the first Duty of Care company to hold this contract.

‘Speed Is Your Security’—Changes and Lessons Learned from Ukraine

If you don’t move quickly, every minute of every day that goes by, exponentially the risk typically goes up until it breaks. It delays and slows our ability to do this safely, securely, and efficiently.”

In a recent article in Security Management Magazine, CEO Dale Buckner discusses how Global Guardian's evacuation and support efforts have evolved almost three months into the war in Ukraine—and shares lessons learned from this crisis so that organizations can better prepare for the next global event.

Strategic UPDATE 

Russia has stepped up missile strikes against Ukraine’s port city of Odesa in the west as the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv successfully pushed Russian forces back to the border in the northeast. Elsewhere along the front, Russian troops remained mired in a stalemate, unable to encircle the Ukrainian defense.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Victory Day celebration on 09 May did not turn out to mark a pivotal moment for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Contrary to expectations, Russian president Putin’s annual speech:

• Did not make an official declaration of war or announce a general mobilization of the Russian population to assist in the war effort.
• Avoided details about Russia’s progress in Ukraine and did not acknowledge Russia’s victories in Kherson or Mariupol.

However, Putin’s speech—while covering familiar themes—also did not signal interest in a short-term end to the war, nor did it exclude the possibility of general mobilization in the near future. Instead, several points sought to increase volunteers in the military and inflate the threat posed by Ukraine:

• Putin announced a presidential decree to provide significant government support to military families. This will reduce reservations among young Russian men with families to join the war.
• Direct connections between veterans of the Great Patriotic War (World War II) and current Russian soldiers elevated volunteers in Russia’s war against Ukraine to hero status. Further, Putin emphasized unity and loyalty to Russia as the “highest meaning of life” for true Russians, increasing social pressure for young men of military age to enlist.

Outside of Russia, US intelligence alleged on 10 May that Putin is planning for a long war, hoping to outlast US and European support for Ukraine. In this scenario, martial law in Russia to support the war effort is likely given the current degradation of Russia’s standing force.

Still, Russia’s existing logistics issues would be further complicated by expanding its force size—a difficult task that cannot be accomplished in the short-term. Training new troops would take a minimum of nine months and reducing training time to push infantry out faster would be catastrophic against a well-trained Ukrainian defense.

Strategic UPDATE 

Russian president Putin is expected to make a major announcement on 09 May to mark Russia’s annual celebration of Victory Day. As the commemoration of Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, Victory Day 2022 is certain to acknowledge Russia’s “denazification” of Ukraine.

Some analysts fear that Putin will use the moment to formally declare war on Ukraine. This would allow Russia to issue a mass mobilization of forces to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses with fresh soldiers. However, there are several reasons why this is unlikely to occur:

• Existing logistics and organizational issues in Ukraine would be increased by an influx of new troops that would normally receive months of training.
• Russia’s existing stockpiles of munitions are running low as the invasion enters its third month of operation. Russia cannot reliably both outfit a larger force and commit to a sustained offensive that allows it to hold captured territory.
• Mass conscription would be highly unpopular among the general Russian population, which has so far not been directly affected by events in Ukraine. This could endanger Putin’s historically secure political position at home.
• A formal declaration of war is opposite to Russia’s historic Victory Day celebrations—which are celebrations of peace and victory after war—and would not signal strength to the Russian people. This too could endanger Putin’s domestic appeal, which he is unlikely to risk.

On the contrary, Putin is more likely to announce victory in the second phase of Russia’s “special operation” regardless of the situation on the ground. Russia will signal its intention to defend captured territory from falling back into the hands of “fascists” while seeking a satisfactory, if temporary, end to Ukrainian counter-offensives.

• Russian forces have succeeded at capturing Kherson and Mariupol despite fierce resistance, allowing Russian forces in south Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea.
• Russian forces are making slow but steady progress toward capturing the Donetsk Oblast that comprises the territory claimed by the pro-Russian Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics of eastern Ukraine.
• Putin can deflect attention to alleged Western aggression toward Transnistria, where Russian state news sources allege a Moldovan-Romanian alliance, backed by U.S. advisors, is conspiring to reclaim territory occupied by pro-Russian forces.
• Putin can claim that captured territory has been “denazified” and that the remainder of Ukraine will be close behind.
• Putin may announce intent to recognize referendums that will accede Kherson and other occupied territory in the east and south to Russia. Russia is already consolidating control of Kherson, beginning with a transition to the Russian ruble on 01 May and followed by rerouting local internet traffic through Russian-controlled infrastructure the day after.