In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
The current no war no peace paradigm is becoming increasingly unstable. The past two weeks have seen kinetic exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, and now Iran and Israel every two to three days. Iran has shown that it will attack Israel to defend Hezbollah, attack U.S. bases in the Gulf in response to U.S. attacks on its territory, and attack vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz that do not use its "toll booth" system or in response to U.S. blockade enforcement activities.
Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined ABC News to discuss the latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran and what the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping could mean for global stability.
"I'm telling my Global Guardian clients right now, that is the trigger to watch. Are the Houthis actually going to get involved and target Israeli ships in the Red Sea, or is this just rhetoric?"
Krummrich warned that Houthi involvement could produce serious consequences well beyond the immediate conflict—potentially disrupting global logistics at a scale not seen since World War II. On the diplomatic front, he argued that decoupling the Israel-Hezbollah issue from U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations is essential to making progress on either track, noting that both sides need a deal and that linking the two only pushes a resolution further away.
Global Guardian's 2026 World Cup Security Report was featured in TravelPulse, which examined the unprecedented security risks facing attendees as the tournament gets underway across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
"Opportunistic crime is the primary security risk to World Cup travelers across all host metro areas. These offenses are generally unplanned; criminals identify potential victims shortly before acting."
The report covers all three host countries across a range of threat categories—from general crime and civil unrest to terrorism and extreme weather—giving organizations and travelers a comprehensive picture of what to expect in each host city.
Ahead of ESOC 2026, Global Guardian SVP Erick Turasz sat down for a pre-conference interview to discuss how the threat landscape is evolving and what it takes to deliver effective, proactive protection at a global scale.
Turasz outlined Global Guardian's core value proposition: serving as a single, integrated resource for travel security, executive protection, and medical support across more than 140 countries and all 50 U.S. states. From daily executive travel to crisis evacuations, the ability to consolidate services under one trusted partner reduces friction when speed and coordination matter most.
Drawing on recent events—from cartel disruptions in Mexico to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East—Turasz emphasized that crisis situations rarely announce themselves, and that the relationships and standards established before an incident are what determine how effectively organizations can respond when one does.
"You can't surge trust in a crisis."
On professional standards, Turasz noted that compliance with established frameworks immediately signals credibility—reducing the time needed to vet partners and accelerating the ability to execute when conditions on the ground are moving fast.
Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation to discuss the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the role of internal pressure inside Iran, and what a realistic path to resolution might look like.
"Theocracy and political beliefs fall to the wayside if you can't survive and your family can't survive, and when that happens, revolution is coming."
Seth argued that the Iranian population—not external military pressure—remains the most consequential variable to watch, as economic strain, widespread layoffs, and mounting public frustration continue to build toward a potential breaking point. On the diplomatic front, he cautioned that keeping negotiations focused and clean is the only realistic path to progress, and that adding Hezbollah and Israel into the mix risks derailing the entire process.
Global Guardian Head of Research and Intelligence Zev Faintuch contributed analysis to Newsweek as the Iran war reached its 100-day mark, weighing in on how the conflict has reshaped the strategic landscape across the region.
"Iran has been able to form a pretty strong linkage between negotiations with the United States and the situation in Lebanon."
That linkage, Faintuch noted, is complicating the path toward resolution on both fronts. With negotiations still in flux and conditions on the ground continuing to shift, the strategic picture remains far from settled.
During early-morning hours (local time) on 08 June, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. Explosions were heard in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj. The strikes were retaliation for three Iranian missile salvos launched at northern Israel during evening hours on 07 June. While all three salvos were successfully intercepted, they were meant to send a message to Israel more than cause damage. Iran was following through on earlier threats to Israel after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier in the day, a move viewed as a violation of the ceasefire in place since April. It marks the first exchange between Israel and Iran since the 08 April ceasefire.
Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined ABC News Live to discuss how internal pressure inside Iran may prove more consequential than external military action in shaping the trajectory of U.S.–Iran negotiations.
"All the ingredients are there for an unsustainable and combustible future."
During the interview, Seth identified Iranian society as the most important emerging factor to watch. As internet service returns and economic damage becomes more visible, widespread public frustration and continued repression are building toward a pressure point with the potential to accelerate the negotiating timeline from within.
Over the last week, diplomatic efforts have continued amid a marked increase in kinetic activity. U.S. President Donald Trump remains committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz through a temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) but needs terms—including on the nuclear file—that can be presented domestically as a political victory. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek a return to high-intensity conflict, Iran is increasing military pressure by stepping up its responses to U.S. blockade enforcement, raising the risk of miscalculation.
