In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
On 15 April, Iran's IRGC threatened to forcibly halt exports through the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea if the U.S. blockade continues. This threat comes after two days of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. U.S. CENTCOM said on 14 April that no ships had breached the blockade and that six vessels had so far complied with direction to return to Iranian ports; however, there are conflicting accounts regarding tanker traffic. During the early morning hours of 15 April, Iran's Fars news agency claimed that an Iranian VLCC tanker on the U.S. sanctions list was able to enter the Strait of Hormuz from open water and dock at an Iranian port.
Despite the ongoing blockade and Iranian threats, the ceasefire appears to be holding. There have been no attacks on Gulf states since the initial violations reported in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Airspace has largely been reopened in the region, except for Kuwait, and multiple airlines are ending their war-related suspensions. The ceasefire is set to expire on 21 April.
Comments made by President Trump on 14 April to ABC News' Jonathan Karl indicate that the next two days will be critical with the U.S. either walking away from further conflict or reaching a deal with Iran. Trump said, "I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," and that "...I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild. They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals. They’re gone, no longer with us." A second round of negotiations may take place this week in Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey. Nuclear weapons remain the sticking point.
“If Iran can’t ship their oil, we assess they have about two weeks’ worth of oil storage before it must shut down its oil wells. This is our risk timeline that’s going to drive the negotiation timelines.”
Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich joined ABC News to assess the risks and implications of the ongoing naval blockade, including how pressure on Iran’s energy exports could accelerate negotiations or trigger escalation.
During the interview, Krummrich outlined key indicators organizations should monitor, warning that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—or coordinated attacks on regional infrastructure—could create significant global economic consequences well beyond the Gulf.
“Organizations are taking a closer look at how well their top executives are protected and increasingly recognize that their duty of care extends to the home, family, and travel.”
Global Guardian President & CEO Dale Buckner was featured in Business Insider discussing how executive security strategies are evolving as threats increasingly extend beyond corporate offices and into private residences.
The article highlighted how heightened public sentiment, increased digital exposure, and recent attacks have prompted organizations to reassess executive protection, expanding duty‑of‑care considerations to include home environments, family members, and travel.
“It is a significant escalation, and this is pure economic warfare. The U.S.’s goal is to create as much pain as they can to force Iran to come back to the table and make a deal.”
Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich joined ABC News to assess the strategic use of economic pressure amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, including the implications of a naval blockade and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
During the interview, Krummrich warned that the impact extends well beyond the Gulf, emphasizing that energy disruption and economic pressure are already creating global risk for organizations operating across multiple regions.
During the evening of 11 April, U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced the failure of negotiations with Iran to produce an agreement. Reports indicate that the U.S. proposed a partial release of frozen Iranian funds and the end to the conflict in exchange for a 20-year freeze on Iranian enrichment, the removal of all enriched material from Iran, and toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After announcing the failure of talks, Vice President Vance explained that the primary sticking point was the nuclear issue: "We need to see an affirmative commitment that [the Iranians] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."
On 12 April, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy "will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that it will implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on 13 April at 10:00 am ET. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations operating in Iranian coastal areas, including ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Assets from the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with additional destroyers, are expected to support enforcement operations.
The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering resuming limited strikes on Iran in conjunction with the blockade to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. This report comes as more U.S. military assets have been transferred to the region, and two naval ships have transited the Strait. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are on their way to the region.
By starting de-mining operations and implementing a blockade all under the cover of a ceasefire, the U.S. is incrementally asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, eroding Iran's main point of leverage. Meanwhile, the blockade will put direct economic pressure on Iran and indirect pressure on China to push Iran to return to the negotiating table.
“You haven’t won anything until the negotiations are complete and you have a peace deal hammered out. Make no mistake, ceasefires are not peace deals.”
Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich joined ABC News to assess ceasefire negotiations, regional instability, and the risks facing organizations operating across the Middle East.
During the interview, Krummrich cautioned that the current ceasefire remains a fragile starting point, highlighting Lebanon as a key inflection point while warning that unresolved negotiations continue to create a volatile environment for travel and business activity across the Gulf.
Negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on 11 April. Per open-source flight tracking, the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is en route to Pakistan. Talks are expected to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between the two separate delegations. Direct U.S.–Iran fighting has paused, but the status of the ceasefire and of the proposed talks in general is precarious.
Ceasefire violations and the inclusion of Lebanon are major pressure points. Iran is conditioning talks on Lebanon being included in the ceasefire, while the U.S. and Israel reject that completely. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said it may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included. Iranian state media claims that the Iranian delegation has yet to depart for Pakistan, citing ongoing fighting in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under pressure from the United States to scale back military operations in Lebanon. During a call from President Trump, Netanyahu “agreed to be a helpful partner.” Following the call, the prime minister ordered the Israeli government to start direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The previous day, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets all across Lebanon in what it labeled "Operation Eternal Darkness." The strikes killed over 300 people and injured over 1,100. The Lebanese government declared a day of national mourning the following day on 09 April.
New polling has emerged indicating that public opinion could act as a force to stymie the conflict resolution process. In a YouGov poll, an equal proportion of 34% of Americans believe that no side won the war and that the U.S. won the war, with only 14% seeing Iran as the victor. Meanwhile, in an Israeli poll conducted by Walla and Maariv, 46% of Israelis believe the U.S. and Israel did not achieve victory, with 63% of polled Israelis saying they were dissatisfied with the outcome of the war.
Meanwhile, the precondition for the ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, has not been fulfilled. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump voiced frustrations with Iran’s compliance, saying that "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have.” Four tankers and three bulk carriers crossed through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday, making a total of twelve vessels since the start of the ceasefire—down from upwards of 100 daily in peacetime.
On 07 April, just before the 8 pm ET deadline, President Trump announced on Truth Social a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran agreed to the initial terms and stated that safe passage would be allowed through the Strait during the two-week ceasefire in coordination with Iranian armed forces. Iran is seeking to collect $2 million per vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Annual revenue from such fees could be more than double Iran's revenue from oil and gas exports. The two-week ceasefire will allow the U.S. and Iran to fully negotiate terms of a lasting deal which could prove mutually beneficial, as President Trump told ABC News' Jonathan Karl this morning that "We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it—also securing it from lots of other people.”
President Trump noted that the ten-point plan proposed by Iran "is a workable basis on which to negotiate." Iran's Tasnim state media claims the U.S. agreed to the following conditions as a basis for negotiations. However, it is unlikely that many of these points are agreed upon:
1. The U.S. should commit in principle to guarantee non-aggression.
2. Iran's continued control of the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Accepting enrichment.
4. Lifting all primary sanctions.
5. Lifting all secondary sanctions.
6. Termination of all Security Council resolutions.
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions.
8. Payment of damages to Iran.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Lebanese Hezbollah.
A follow-up Truth Social post this morning shed additional light on a potential agreement, with President Trump saying, "The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” While at odds with Iran's ten-point plan, collaboration with Iran to remove the buried highly enriched Uranium and Iran's agreement to forgo future enrichment would be a significant development in meeting one of the U.S. and Israel's primary goals to never allow a nuclear-armed Iran.
Despite the ceasefire announcement, multiple drone and missile attacks were recorded targeting Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past several hours. These were likely retaliation for attacks on an Iranian refinery on Lavan Island and an unspecified target on Sirri Island earlier on 08 April, though Iran did not specifically blame them, instead saying there was an "attack by enemies." It remains unclear who carried out the strikes on those two Iranian islands.
The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq agreed to abide by the two-week ceasefire, and both Iraq and Syria have reopened airspace as of today. While Israel has agreed to stop attacking Iran, it continues to strike at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
“Iran’s fighting for its survival. It has everything to lose.”
Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation to assess negotiation prospects, escalation risks, and potential outcomes as ceasefire discussions and deadlines continue to shift.
During the interview, Krummrich warned that threats to regional infrastructure and Gulf‑based businesses remain elevated, noting that Global Guardian has already evacuated more than 4,200 clients from the region while continuing to provide intelligence, security, and evacuation support to organizations operating across the Gulf.
