During early-morning hours (local time) on 08 June, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. Explosions were heard in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj. The strikes were retaliation for three Iranian missile salvos launched at northern Israel during evening hours on 07 June. While all three salvos were successfully intercepted, they were meant to send a message to Israel more than cause damage. Iran was following through on earlier threats to Israel after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier in the day, a move viewed as a violation of the ceasefire in place since April. It marks the first exchange between Israel and Iran since the 08 April ceasefire.

Over the last week, diplomatic efforts have continued amid a marked increase in kinetic activity. U.S. President Donald Trump remains committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz through a temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) but needs terms—including on the nuclear file—that can be presented domestically as a political victory. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek a return to high-intensity conflict, Iran is increasing military pressure by stepping up its responses to U.S. blockade enforcement, raising the risk of miscalculation.

PERSONALITY, POLITICS AND THE FUTURE OF THE US–COLOMBIA RELATIONSHIP

“With personality shaping foreign policy more than ever, each candidate carries distinct risks for stability and U.S. cooperation.”

Over the last week, the diplomatic track has gained momentum with a major expansion of diplomatic activity across several channels. While the details are not completely certain, the known confines of a deal are as follows.

DONALD TRUMP'S RISKY MILITARY OPTIONS TO BREAK IRAN DEADLOCK

“Everything from boots on the ground to a pure air campaign, and then every variable in between.”

An outbreak of the rare Bundibugyo species of the Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring Uganda is challenging regional disease control capabilities. Ongoing conflict and other humanitarian crises in the region have contributed to a delay in the outbreak’s detection and continue to complicate mitigation and containment efforts. While the risk of this outbreak reaching the level of a pandemic is exceedingly low, it will likely persist in the DRC–Uganda border area for weeks or months to come. Policies related to response and containment efforts are likely to disrupt travel to and through the region into the medium term.

A RECENT CYBERATTACK NEARLY RAN ITSELF. PROACTIVE DEFENDERS ARE ALREADY PREPARING FOR THE NEXT ONE

“Agentic models can now orchestrate and execute rather than just assist with clearly defined tasks.”

The ceasefire has now reached six weeks—longer than the hot phase of the conflict—and an agreement remains elusive. Tehran's terms keep on moving farther away from Washington's, making a diplomatic solution increasingly unlikely. The U.S. would like to return to the pre-war status quo with Iran's military complex weakened and its nuclear ambitions constrained by an agreement that extracts Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU), pauses enrichment for 20 years, and dismantles its nuclear infrastructure. Having survived Operation Epic Fury, the regime wants to set the conditions to prevent future military intervention by locking in its gains, specifically, de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, even if this results in renewed conflict. 

On 18 May, President Trump announced via Truth Social that a planned U.S. military strike on Iran, scheduled for 19 May, had been called off. According to the President, the decision followed direct requests from three Gulf heads of state—Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim, Saudi Crown Prince MBS, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE say they were not aware of any imminent planned strike. President Trump also made it clear that this is not a broad deescalation effort, and on 19 May, told reporters that the postponement of strikes was time-limited: "I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time."

The strike postponement comes as Iran's newest 18 May proposal is more maximalist than prior proposals. Reuters reports that Iran's position now includes ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, war reparations, an ​end to the U.S. naval blockade and exit of U.S. forces from bases near Iran, a lifting of sanctions, and a release of frozen assets. Tehran continues to refuse to discuss the nuclear file.

Also, on 18 May, Iran announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) that it says will oversee transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is attempting to formalize its control over the Strait of Hormuz to make it impossible to return to the pre-war status quo. On 20 May, two Chinese and one South Korean tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly with Iranian permission, in a sign of Iran's growing control over the waterway. 

According to Kann News, joint U.S.–Israel preparations are complete to restart military operations in Iran. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have now spoken twice in the last few days, and Netanyahu has missed a court hearing and is set to miss an important vote on dissolving the Israeli parliament scheduled for 20 May, citing security developments.

Global Guardian assesses a roughly even chance of a return to hostilities within the next two weeks.