NEED TO BE EXTRACTED FROM THE MIDDLE EAST? CALL YOUR WEALTH MANAGER

“Family offices and high net worth clients are looking for a concierge—one button where they have one phone number, one email and all of these services can be at their beck and call.”

As the conflict with Iran drives evacuation demand across the Middle East, the Financial Times reported on how wealth managers are expanding services to support clients facing evolving security risks, with Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner noting increased demand for integrated security, logistics, and travel coordination.

He added that Global Guardian has evacuated more than 4,000 people from the region since the start of the conflict, including many clients supported by family offices and wealth managers, with operations spanning ground movements out of the UAE and private charter flights to Europe.

“We’re probably closer to the beginning or middle of this story than we are to the end.”

As the conflict with Iran continues to evolve, CNBC spoke with Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich about the escalation indicators organizations should be watching.

Krummrich highlighted several key triggers, including disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, financial actions by Gulf states, and the possibility of a U.S. mass casualty event. Any of these developments could signal a significant shift in the threat environment and materially affect organizations operating in or tied to the region.

He added that for businesses with people or operations on the ground, these indicators may serve as critical decision points for reassessing contingency, evacuation, and continuity plans.

On 28 March, the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen entered the conflict by launching a ballistic missile at Israel and two drones the following day. This follows threats made by the group the previous day. It likely serves as a warning to Israel and the Gulf states that they have the capability to inflict damage should things escalate with Iran. 

There were multiple diplomatic developments over the weekend. Spain’s military said it had closed its airspace to U.S. military flights assisting in the war against Iran while Pakistan hosted meetings involving Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani officials. President Donald Trump said that “great progress” had been made in talks with a “new” Iranian government; however, he also said in a Financial Times interview that his preference would be to "take the oil in Iran." These comments come amid ongoing troop deployments to the region. President Trump also said, "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't." While rhetoric around negotiations appears positive, troop buildup and active threats to Iran on social media indicate further escalation is likely. 

In addition to ground operations seizing and occupying Kharg Island, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the administration is considering a complex operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's enriched uranium that could be used to make nuclear weapons. Iran giving up its nuclear program and handing over its highly enriched uranium are key requirements for ending the conflict according to President Trump. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf states continued to report interception activity from Iranian attacks. In Kuwait, a power and desalination plant was damaged with repair work underway. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan all said they intercepted missiles and drones over the last several days, with Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Industrial Zone reporting multiple fires on 28 March. Qatar experienced multiple Iranian drone incursions over the weekend, the first after a multi-day pause in targeting by Iran.

On 26 March, President Trump announced the U.S. would delay strikes on Iranian power plants until 06 April and said negotiations were going very well. This follows an earlier extension of the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, set to expire today. At the same time, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said there were "strong signs" of a ceasefire deal and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said intermediary countries were “passing messages, and progress has been made” in talks with Iran.  

Despite more positive rhetoric around negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the region. Taken together, the extension of President Trump’s deadline, the potential troop increase, and Sen. Nancy Mace’s comments after a classified briefing suggest the U.S. is going to deploy troops to Iranian-controlled islands in the Strait of Hormuz within the next one to two weeks.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis threatened military intervention in the Iran conflict "if necessary" but have yet to explicitly commit to any particular redlines. It is possible that the group will return to attacks on Red Sea shipping or oil and gas infrastructure should the U.S. put boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz.

HOW A US ASSAULT ON KHARG ISLAND COULD UNFOLD

“Any operation to seize Kharg Island would be economic warfare—you are fighting in a completely different and more complex space.” 

As the U.S. weighs next steps in the conflict with Iran, the Financial Times examined how a potential operation targeting Kharg Island—the country’s primary oil export hub—could reshape both the battlefield and global energy markets.

Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich noted that targeting critical energy infrastructure would extend beyond traditional military objectives into economic disruption, with ripple effects across global markets and regional stability.

The last 48 hours have seen multiple news reports and direct quotes from President Trump signaling some level of discussions between the U.S. and Iran have either taken place or are going to happen in the coming days. Per The New York Times, the U.S. delivered a 15-point plan to Iran via Pakistan. During a press conference on 24 March, President Trump said the U.S. is talking to the "right people" (possibly Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) in Iran and claimed they "want to make a deal so badly." He further elaborated by claiming Iran has given the U.S. "a gift worth a lot of money" related to oil and gas. These statements, along with the announcement that VP JD Vance and Secretary Rubio are leading negotiations with Iran, possibly in Pakistan, are the strongest signals yet that diplomatic channels are open. 

The chatter around negotiations comes as the U.S. is deploying up to 3,000 soldiers with the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the region, in addition to the 2,500 Marines en route with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from Asia. They are expected to be in theater by this weekend, with an additional MEU from California expected to arrive next week. On several occasions, the U.S. has led the international community (and Iran) to believe negotiations were forthcoming before attacking Iran. The five-day ultimatum given by President Trump earlier in the week will expire around when these troops arrive in the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israeli pace of operations is decelerating. U.S. CENTCOM and the Joint Chiefs are issuing fewer tactical updates, and daily strike rates have fallen sharply—from approximately 500 targets per day in the early stages of the conflict to roughly 240 currently (approximately 1,200 targets struck between 18–23 March). An IDF official stated on 19 March that 90% of pre-conflict target sets had been struck. The U.S. and Israel may be approaching the limits of what airpower can reach. The two unresolved strategic objectives—reopening the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat—cannot be achieved through airpower alone and will require either ground forces or a diplomatic settlement.

Fog of War Is Clouding Negotiations

Talks are complicated by two compounding uncertainties. First, per a Wall Street Journal report, Iran's ceasefire proposal is maximalist. If this reflects Iran's actual position rather than an opening bid, the gap between the parties is too wide to bridge in the near term. Second, it remains unclear what authority the Iranian negotiating team holds over the IRGC. With Iran's command and control severely degraded, lower-level commanders appear to be operating with broad latitude under a decentralized "mosaic defense" doctrine. This creates a meaningful risk that talks could be undermined by remaining IRGC command elements—or by lower-level officers acting unilaterally—regardless of what any negotiating channel produces.

Post-Deadline Scenarios

After Friday's deadline, four trajectories are possible:

• Significant Escalation: The U.S. strikes Iran's largest power generation infrastructure; Iran retaliates with extensive damage to Gulf energy facilities, potentially drawing Gulf states or Houthi forces in Yemen into direct combat.

• Limited Escalation: The U.S. conducts targeted, symbolic strikes on Iranian fuel and energy infrastructure to increase negotiating pressure without triggering a broader exchange.

• Status Quo: President Trump allows his ultimatum to pass without action. Newly arrived expeditionary forces begin positioning for operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Temporary Ceasefire: Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey mediate a phased pause in hostilities, modeled on the Gaza framework, under which parties agree to suspend combat for a defined period while negotiators work to narrow the substantial gaps between positions. The U.S. or Israel would retain the option to resume operations if talks stall.

During the early morning hours on 23 March, President Trump announced on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of War to halt planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as "very good and productive conversations" with Iran regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities." He had previously set a 48-hour deadline on Saturday, 21 March for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face "obliteration" of its power plants. Iran threatened Gulf power plants and desalination facilities in response.

Iranian media say there was no direct or indirect contact with the Trump administration. As such, it is possible that Gulf states pressured the U.S. to postpone its strikes on Iranian power plants as the destruction of their own power plants would be catastrophic for maintaining desalination plants, their only source of fresh water. 

Over the weekend, Iran continued launching drones and missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. The vast majority were successfully intercepted. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia remain top targets for Iran. It appears that Qatar has not been targeted since last week's strikes on the Ras Laffan complex. 

In the last 48 hours, Iran has targeted oil and gas infrastructure across the region in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities linked to the South Pars gas field on 18 March. Targeted sites include the Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar, Mina al-Abdullah oil refinery in Kuwait, Al Hosn Gas Field, Habshan facility in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), SAMREF refinery in Saudi Arabia, Jubail Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia, and the Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex in Qatar. Iran also targeted Israel's Haifa oil refinery. 

Israeli sources describe the attack on the Iranian gas field as a coordinated warning signal to the Islamic Republic meant to make clear that if Iran keeps destabilizing the global economy through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, its energy sector will be hit. On 19 March, President Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel would not conduct further attacks on South Pars facilities and warned Iran that subsequent attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities would trigger American strikes on South Pars.    

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan released a joint statement expressing their readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure the safe passage of commercial shipping through the Strait. Germany and the Netherlands said a ceasefire or at least a cessation of hostilities was a precondition for participation. Despite the statement, it is unlikely any of these countries deploy military assets to the Strait until a ceasefire is in effect. 

According to an Axios report, the U.S. is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This could include U.S. troops on the ground or a U.S. Navy blockade of tankers bound for China and other destinations. An unnamed official is quoted as saying, "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, [and] take the island." This reinforces the idea that the conflict will continue for some time as both parties climb the escalation ladder with no clear off-ramp in sight. 

Israel announced it had killed Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the Basij (Iran's internal repression apparatus), Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, in airstrikes on 17 March. According to CNN, citing an unnamed senior official, the U.S. and Israel considered Ali Larijani their favored transitional candidate last year, but he became a target following his push for violent crackdown on protestors earlier this year, his recent public rhetoric following the start of war, and his large role in strategizing IRGC response, including against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Addressing the assassination, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of the killings “we are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it.” 

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reporting suggests that Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering joining the U.S. in operations to reopen it. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy "bunker buster" ordnance targeting missile sites in the caves above the Strait.