Executive Summary

The war in Yemen is escalating along with an increase of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Following the 04 October initiation of a Saudi-backed Yemen counteroffensive, threats to Saudi Arabia are likely to escalate as the Houthis seek to increase the economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia. Global Guardian does not assess that upcoming major international conferences, including the Future Investment Initiative (FII) Conference, will be deliberately targeted by the Houthis. However, the Houthis have already intensified their cross-border attacks on Saudi airports, including three recent strikes on Riyadh King Khalid International Airport (RUH), and further attacks are likely in the coming days and weeks.

The Houthis’ primary targets in Saudi Arabia are oil and gas infrastructure and airports. Excluding the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran, the main threats facing travelers visiting Saudi Arabia are conflict-related flight delays and falling debris from interceptions. Saudi interceptors have largely been successful, but the Saudi government is censoring media around these events making it difficult to verify Houthi strikes. Repeated successful strikes on Saudi cities would indicate that the Houthi anti-Saudi strategy has shifted, raising the risks to personnel on the ground.

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation to discuss the attempted cockpit takeover on a flight that UAE investigators have called a terror-related attack, and what new details about the copilot reveal about gaps in airline vetting.

"It's terrifying, and it highlights a gap that exists between the airlines when they're vetting and validating who's flying these planes."

Krummrich noted that the copilot had reportedly been barred from flying in Oman over extremism concerns, yet was later hired by another airline, underscoring the need for better cross-communication between carriers. He also cautioned that if investigators find a link to Iran rather than a lone actor inspired by a group like al-Qaeda, the fallout could trigger an Israeli response and risk another escalation cycle.

Risk rises across the Middle East and the Americas after a year defined by two global health emergencies, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and AI-driven cyberattacks

Two months ago, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva looked set to win Brazil's presidential election and earn an unprecedented fourth term. However, with less than a week until the first round of voting, a far-reaching corruption scandal has once again struck Brazilian politics, tightening the polling gap of an election that will dictate the direction of Brazilian security policy and the Supreme Court.

Persian Gulf oil exports in September reached approximately 80% of prewar levels, nearing 13 million barrels per day. The increase is largely due to Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Oil Company following Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's model of using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, Riyadh exported 6 million barrels per day in September, the highest volume since the war began. In addition, after being damaged and taken offline on 10 September, Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline resumed operations on 22 September and is currently operating at 3.5 million barrels a day.

DATA CENTERS ARE BECOMING CRITICAL US INFRASTRUCTURE. A FORMER SPECIAL FORCES OFFICER SAYS THEY'RE TARGETS, TOO

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich was featured on Military.com, discussing why data centers are becoming critical U.S. infrastructure and why that makes them targets for both physical strikes and cyberattacks.

"Data centers are going to be just as important as the power grid." Krummrich noted that securing them is only half the equation. "The other piece is, how fast after an attack can you get everything back online?"

Krummrich, a former Army Special Forces officer, pointed to Iran's strikes on Amazon data centers in Bahrain and the UAE during the Iran War as evidence of the threat, noting that Bahrain remains offline and significant data was lost, affecting corporate clients worldwide. He also cautioned that securing a data center means looking well beyond the server warehouse itself, to the substations and miles of fiber optic cable that support it.

SAUDI-HOUTHI CONFLICT POISED TO ESCALATE

Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner was featured in Semafor, discussing the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis following Houthi strikes on Riyadh and its airport in September 2026.

"Now, the Houthis have truly been activated."

Buckner pointed to the Houthis' growing control of the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with intensifying strikes on Saudi infrastructure, as signs of likely escalation ahead. He also cautioned that a renewed Saudi military campaign would face real limits, noting the Houthis are a difficult force to destroy through conventional air and sea power alone given their light footprint and mountain hideouts.

There are several possible indications that the conflict in the Middle East is imminently set to expand. On 19 September, the United States Department of State issued a region-wide security alert for the Middle East, warning Americans that the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could “escalate rapidly,” also notifying travelers that flights may be impacted by the fighting. The warning comes after the Houthis attacked Riyadh for the first time, hitting a fuel storage tank at the airport. Airspace was briefly disrupted.

Global energy is coming under increasing strain as Saudi Arabia was forced to suspend its East-West Pipeline, and the Houthis captured the remainder of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. With approximately 12 million barrels per day flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, including during the daytime, Iran's "Axis of Resistance" has turned its sights on the Arabian Peninsula to exert economic pressure. Over the past month, Brent's price has risen 17.55%, with Brent Crude reaching $107 and diesel in the U.S. exceeding $6 per gallon for the first time ever.

VENEZUELA

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