On 18 October, United States (U.S.) diplomatic missions in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Iraq, Israel, Bahrain, UAE, and Yemen issued security alerts warning of the broader threat posed by Iran, shifting attention away from the Houthi-Saudi conflict and toward the risk of a wider regional war. It’s possible this new advisory was issued in relation to the Al Jazeera-reported U.S. retaliatory strikes on IRGC-N Konarak Naval Base on 18 October that the U.S. later denied. It is also possible that the embassy alerts are an indicator that phase II of the war will resume in the coming days or weeks.

CROATIA'S INTERIOR MINISTER CITES GLOBAL GUARDIAN'S 2027 GLOBAL RISK MAP

Croatia’s Minister of the Interior, Davor Božinović, recorded a video this week in front of Global Guardian’s 2027 Global Risk Map, using Croatia’s low-risk rating to credit the police, firefighters, civil protection, and emergency services who work to keep it there. His message was that a low rating reflects daily effort and is never a reason to relax.

Our intelligence analysts rate every country each year on crime, conflict, health, natural disasters, transportation and infrastructure, political stability, civil unrest, and terrorism, so that travelers, security leaders and governments can see where risk is rising and where it is easing.

The same logic applies to organizations: a strong risk rating reflects ongoing work, not a reason to stop planning for what comes next.

Youth-led protests that began in France in mid-September as a student-focused movement have tapped into a European-wide vein of anti-government sentiment that is now poised to spark unrest across that continent. Travelers should expect serious disruptions to normal travel and operations in Paris and the surrounding Île-de-France region, as well as in other major cities throughout France. Travelers should also exercise increased caution and avoid crowds in Lisbon, Porto, Milan, Rome, Madrid, and Tirana. People and organizations with planned travel anywhere in Europe should assess their potential exposure to large-scale protests and their associated risks, as these protests are likely to expand.

THE DEEPFAKE DETECTION DILEMMA

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich was featured in Security Management, recounting how the firm had to verify whether a viral video of a Mexican airport on fire was real before deciding whether to evacuate clients.

“We called our team on the ground and asked, ‘Is this real?’”

Seth explained that in February 2026, as cartel violence erupted following the killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, social media video appeared to show Puerto Vallarta International Airport on fire. Global Guardian’s local contact went outside, looked at the airport, and confirmed it was not actually burning. “Then we had to turn around and tell our clients, ‘What you’re seeing online is nonsense,’” Seth said. “That’s the world we live in now.”

WHERE SHOULD YOU TRAVEL IN 2027? SEE THE SAFEST DESTINATIONS

Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner was featured in USA Today, breaking down the 2027 Global Risk Map and what it reveals about navigating an increasingly fragmented risk landscape in the year ahead.

“Almost half of the countries in the world now have multiple risk levels across the board.”

Dale pointed to Mexico as a clear example of how the map’s ratings break down within a single country, noting that the risk rating along the border and in cartel-active western regions can be far higher than the rating for Mexico City or Guadalajara, where conditions sit closer to medium or low risk. The map also tracks notable shifts year over year, with Jamaica, South Korea, and Hungary all seeing risk decrease, while Cuba and Ecuador saw risk increase.

GLOBAL SECURITY RISKS 2027: WHICH COUNTRIES TO VISIT AND WHICH TO AVOID

Global Guardian’s 2027 Global Risk Map examines where risk is rising and easing around the world heading into next year. TravelPulse recently spoke with CEO Dale Buckner to break down the findings.

When it comes to the countries the map flags as highest risk, Dale’s advice is direct: “Don’t go to these areas where there’s a hot war. Go somewhere else and keep that location on your bucket list for another year.”

Dale walked through specific shifts in the map, including increased risk in Cuba amid worsening blackouts and fuel shortages, and across several Middle East countries following the 2026 Iran War. He also pointed to decreased risk in Jamaica, South Korea, and Hungary, driven by improved crime control, political stabilization, and leadership changes, respectively.

The Houthi conflict is primed for further escalation as Saudi Arabia attempts to impose costs on Sana'a. On 13 October, amid the Houthis' coercive campaign against Saudi energy infrastructure and aviation hubs, the Saudi-led coalition issued an evacuation order to Yemen Petroleum Company sites and the Al-Sabaha power plant in Sana'a. The Saudis then proceeded with a major wave of airstrikes on Houthi energy sites around Sana’a.

ETHIOPIA | NATO'S EASTERN FLANK | COLOMBIA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

During the late evening hours local time on 10 October, Saudi Arabia announced that a projectile struck near Dammam's King Fahd International Airport. The attack came a day after Dhaifallah Al-Shami, a member of the Political Bureau of the Houthi movement, issued the following threat on Al Araby TV: "If Saudi Arabia does not stop its blockade and bombardment of our country, we will not limit ourselves to targeting Riyadh Airport.” This marks a significant escalation in the already destructive targeting of Saudi Arabia by Houthi drones and missiles.

GLOBAL THREATS FROM MEXICAN CARTEL AND WHERE NOT TO TRAVEL

Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Tomás Michael Carvallo joined Border Report Live to break down the 2027 Global Risk Map and the security conditions shaping travel and business risk across Mexico.

“Mexico is a patchwork of security conditions.”

Carvallo explained that the Risk Map reflects how risk can shift dramatically within a single country, with one region relatively safe while another nearby carries conditions comparable to a war zone. He pointed to Sinaloa as an extreme risk due to an ongoing cartel turf war, and to Michoacán and Guerrero, where cartels are increasingly using explosives and drone-dropped IEDs.

Explore the 2027 Global Risk Map.

Click below to watch the interview, which runs from approximately minute 9:30 to minute 24:00.