Risk rises across the Middle East and the Americas after a year defined by two global health emergencies, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and AI-driven cyberattacks
Risk rises across the Middle East and the Americas after a year defined by two global health emergencies, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and AI-driven cyberattacks
Two months ago, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva looked set to win Brazil's presidential election and earn an unprecedented fourth term. However, with less than a week until the first round of voting, a far-reaching corruption scandal has once again struck Brazilian politics, tightening the polling gap of an election that will dictate the direction of Brazilian security policy and the Supreme Court.
Persian Gulf oil exports in September reached approximately 80% of prewar levels, nearing 13 million barrels per day. The increase is largely due to Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Oil Company following Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's model of using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, Riyadh exported 6 million barrels per day in September, the highest volume since the war began. In addition, after being damaged and taken offline on 10 September, Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline resumed operations on 22 September and is currently operating at 3.5 million barrels a day.
Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich was featured on Military.com, discussing why data centers are becoming critical U.S. infrastructure and why that makes them targets for both physical strikes and cyberattacks.
"Data centers are going to be just as important as the power grid." Krummrich noted that securing them is only half the equation. "The other piece is, how fast after an attack can you get everything back online?"
Krummrich, a former Army Special Forces officer, pointed to Iran's strikes on Amazon data centers in Bahrain and the UAE during the Iran War as evidence of the threat, noting that Bahrain remains offline and significant data was lost, affecting corporate clients worldwide. He also cautioned that securing a data center means looking well beyond the server warehouse itself, to the substations and miles of fiber optic cable that support it.
Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner was featured in Semafor, discussing the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis following Houthi strikes on Riyadh and its airport in September 2026.
"Now, the Houthis have truly been activated."
Buckner pointed to the Houthis' growing control of the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with intensifying strikes on Saudi infrastructure, as signs of likely escalation ahead. He also cautioned that a renewed Saudi military campaign would face real limits, noting the Houthis are a difficult force to destroy through conventional air and sea power alone given their light footprint and mountain hideouts.
There are several possible indications that the conflict in the Middle East is imminently set to expand. On 19 September, the United States Department of State issued a region-wide security alert for the Middle East, warning Americans that the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could “escalate rapidly,” also notifying travelers that flights may be impacted by the fighting. The warning comes after the Houthis attacked Riyadh for the first time, hitting a fuel storage tank at the airport. Airspace was briefly disrupted.
Global energy is coming under increasing strain as Saudi Arabia was forced to suspend its East-West Pipeline, and the Houthis captured the remainder of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline. With approximately 12 million barrels per day flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, including during the daytime, Iran's "Axis of Resistance" has turned its sights on the Arabian Peninsula to exert economic pressure. Over the past month, Brent's price has risen 17.55%, with Brent Crude reaching $107 and diesel in the U.S. exceeding $6 per gallon for the first time ever.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
U.S.–Iran maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen increasingly target Saudi oil facilities. On 09 September, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have struck eight tankers. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), based in Dubai, UAE, confirmed that several merchant vessels were disabled. In addition, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S. bases in Jordan, with the Jordanian Armed Forces claiming to have intercepted 18 of 20 missiles. These attacks are the latest in a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the U.S. and Iran and an extension of the U.S. "tanker for tanker" doctrine where Iranian attacks on commercial ships, and now U.S. naval vessels, elicit American attacks on Iranian tankers.
On 30 August, the United States (U.S.) ended over a month of calm by striking Iranian rocket launchers armed with sea mines on Larak Island. Three Iranian soldiers were killed in the incident, and Iran retaliated with missiles fired at U.S. bases in Jordan. All missiles were either intercepted or posed no threat. The resumption of tit-for-tat exchanges follows Iran increasing its rate of attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using the southern Omani route, having attacked three tankers between 30 and 31 August.
