U.S.–Iran maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen increasingly target Saudi oil facilities. On 09 September, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have struck eight tankers. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), based in Dubai, UAE, confirmed that several merchant vessels were disabled. In addition, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S. bases in Jordan, with the Jordanian Armed Forces claiming to have intercepted 18 of 20 missiles. These attacks are the latest in a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the U.S. and Iran and an extension of the U.S. "tanker for tanker" doctrine where Iranian attacks on commercial ships, and now U.S. naval vessels, elicit American attacks on Iranian tankers.

On 30 August, the United States (U.S.) ended over a month of calm by striking Iranian rocket launchers armed with sea mines on Larak Island. Three Iranian soldiers were killed in the incident, and Iran retaliated with missiles fired at U.S. bases in Jordan. All missiles were either intercepted or posed no threat. The resumption of tit-for-tat exchanges follows Iran increasing its rate of attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using the southern Omani route, having attacked three tankers between 30 and 31 August.

It has been 28 days since the United States (U.S.) and Iran last exchanged fire. Axios reported last night that Secretary Rubio has been telling his foreign counterparts that "for the time being" the U.S. is expected to focus on economic sanctions and renewed diplomacy rather than additional strikes. When combined with yesterday's news that the U.S. is returning Foreign Service Officers (FSO) to U.S. Embassies in the region, the outlook for decreased risk of renewed conflict grows more positive. 

• Global Guardian recommends firms carefully consider travel to the region amid lessened risk of renewed conflict in the near term. 
  
• The 28-day streak appears likely to continue; however, an "October Surprise" from Iran remains a possibility as noted later in this update.
  

A TALE OF TWO BUILDINGS: HOW QUAKE RESCUE EFFORTS DIFFERED IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA

Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Tomás Michael Carvallo was featured in Reuters coverage comparing earthquake rescue efforts in Colombia and Venezuela, describing the operational gap our team encountered on the ground in each country.

"A lot of the immediate search and rescue efforts fell to civilians who were really not equipped to move concrete and collapsed buildings."

Carvallo, whose team helped relocate or support oil, gas, and financial sector clients in both countries following the quakes, told Reuters that heavy machinery was unavailable when staff arrived in Venezuela, forcing civilians into rescue roles they weren't equipped for. The article contrasts that experience with a faster, more coordinated official response in Colombia following the August 2026 earthquake in Cali.

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation to discuss how far the U.S. and Iran remain from a resolution, and the specific indicators shaping the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.

"Never underestimate Iran. No one's done more with less than the Iranians."

Krummrich pointed to oil prices as a real-time barometer, noting that Brent crude falling below $80 while the Strait remains disrupted would signal Iran's strategy is failing, while a rise above $95 would strengthen its position. He also flagged Bab al-Mandeb as the bigger long-term risk, citing a drop from three to one large crude carriers transiting the route daily and the dramatic cost of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope instead.

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On 11 August, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council made it clear that Iran remains steadfast in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. ends the blockade, releases frozen funds, and conflict ends in Lebanon and Gaza. The statement comes two days after Trump told Axios news that he is prepared to let economic pressure build on Iran, rather than ordering a new military offensive.

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation to discuss the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and what economic pressure, rather than further military strikes, signals about the path forward.

"The administration is choosing to leverage economic pressure over additional military strikes."

Krummrich noted that sanctions and blockades appear designed to force Iran's economy and regime back to the negotiating table, and pointed to the Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz and to Yemen as two indicators to watch closely, since Iran could disrupt oil flow to both Asia and Europe if it escalates there. He also flagged the risk that a widely reported U.S. munitions shortage could embolden hardliners within Iran's political system.

SHORT RANGE, HIGH IMPACT: HOW DRONE WARFARE IS CHANGING WORKER SAFETY IN UKRAINE

Global Guardian Senior Vice President Colin O'Brien was featured in Security Management, ASIS International's publication, in an article examining how short-range drone attacks are reshaping worker safety for humanitarians and civilians in Ukraine.

O'Brien, who previously built drone safety protocols for the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) before joining Global Guardian, described how proper threat mapping breaks a country down into risk tiers. "Here's your no-go zones, here's your better-be-really-careful zones... and here's the ones where you're pretty safe."

The article also details how Global Guardian briefs clients operating in regions like Mexico on drone-based surveillance risks, helping them limit visibility and exposure to reconnaissance threats.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the "perimeters of a deal" on the Strait of Hormuz had been agreed to, and that he suspended planned major strikes at the request of Iran and "other Middle Eastern countries" to allow for further negotiations. This was the second weekend in a row where major strikes were called off. Reporting from Reuters suggests U.S. interceptor stockpiles are running low and could be why the escalatory strikes were called off, as the U.S. would not be in a strong position to defend its assets or allies in the region.

• Global Guardian maintains that firms should reconsider non-essential travel to the region as "escalation whiplash" remains constant.
• A resumption of Iranian strikes on infrastructure in the region is possible. This could include the targeting of airports, hotels, power plants, desalination plants, and petroleum facilities across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, especially if the U.S. does carry out a previously threatened "massive attack."