In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
"As geopolitical tensions rise, so too does the unpredictability of global events. Organizations that fail to plan for worst-case scenarios are more likely to experience severe disruptions."
Global Guardian’s 2026 Global Risk Map—featuring the new Terror Index—was highlighted in Travel and Tour World. The article underscored key insights from our intel analysts on current and emerging regional risks and outlined practical steps travelers can take to better prepare before their journeys.
“These three airstrikes on boats with alleged members of Tren de Aragua coincides with a relatively large deployment of some 6,500 troops into the Caribbean region. You have U.S. Navy warships there now—part of it is counter-narcotics operations, part of it is sending a message to President Maduro, whom the U.S. government largely sees as illegitimate.”
In a recent Border Report Live interview, Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Mike Ballard discusses the growing instability across Latin America, drawing on insights from our 2026 Risk Map. Mike weighs in on the region’s widening security challenges—from escalating unrest in Haiti to mounting tensions in Venezuela and ongoing cartel violence in Mexico—each shaping a complex and volatile threat environment for businesses and travelers.
“All it takes is one small trigger for someone to say, ‘I’ve had enough’—and it is extremely difficult to stop these lone wolf attacks.”
In an article for Family Wealth Report, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner discussed the findings from the World Security Report, which reveal a sharp rise in concerns over the safety of business leaders.
Dale weighed in on the societal pressures driving this trend—from inflation and geopolitical tensions to growing anti-Western sentiment—and the urgent steps organizations should take to protect their leadership. He emphasized that safeguarding executives must begin at home and extend through every aspect of travel, work, and digital life.
New report equips business leaders and travelers to navigate an increasingly volatile world
“All of that tradecraft that you used to think 20, 30, 40 years ago was just in the movies, just in spy novels…make absolutely no doubt whatsoever, it has completely infiltrated the Western business environment. And now it's something that C-suite leaders have to be thinking about, and they have to be asking themselves that key question of what is it I have and how am I going to protect it?”
On the Tomorrowist Podcast from SHRM, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner discusses how nation-state tactics are rapidly moving into the private sector, and why business leaders must rethink how they approach security. From cyber theft and insider threats to supply chain infiltration, the risks facing executives are multiplying. Dale shares why due diligence, a “trust but verify” mindset, and integrating security across people and systems are essential for resilience.
“The natural conclusion (of the war) is this is going to keep going until there’s a winner. You’re going to eventually have one group taking over control of the original Sinaloa cartel territory or you could see agreement to split territory…but I really don’t think that’s likely. I think this is going to keep going.”
In a recent Border Report article, Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Mike Ballard provides insight into the status of the Sinaloa Cartel following a year of internal conflict. Since September 2024, a violent power struggle has unfolded between the sons of El Chapo and the faction loyal to El Mayo. The fighting has left thousands dead or missing, displaced communities, and disrupted daily life along the Mexican Pacific Coast, while the government continues to struggle to contain the violence.
“Right now Russia is watching very carefully to see how quickly NATO responds, what assets it uses and what its messaging is going to be from the U.S. and other allies. They’re going to see, you know, how synchronized is NATO and what is the U.S. response.”
In an article in The Wall Street Journal, Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich highlights the significance of Russian drones entering Poland’s airspace and how NATO’s reaction is being scrutinized by Moscow.
“The next 24 to 48 hours are going to be a real bellwether to what this means not just between Israel, Iran, and Qatar, but for the entire region—and for all the business interests across the region as well.”
Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich joined ABC News to discuss Israel’s strike against Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, and what it could mean for regional stability and peace negotiations going forward.
On 09 September at approximately 1600 local time, Israeli warplanes struck at least one target in Doha, Qatar, with explosions reported in the Katara neighborhood. According to Israeli officials, the targets were Hamas’ headquarters in Doha and its senior leaders who were reportedly convening to discuss a Gaza ceasefire deal. At this time, there are conflicting reports surrounding the identities of the intended targets and their current status. Israel says the strike on Hamas leadership in Doha was coordinated in advance with the US. The assassination attempt in the Qatari capital comes amid a renewed U.S. effort to reach a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Global Guardian assesses that the incident is "closed" with a low likelihood of Israeli follow-on strikes in Qatar or Iranian direct retaliation on Israel in the immediate term.
