Negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on 11 April. Per open-source flight tracking, the U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is en route to Pakistan. Talks are expected to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between the two separate delegations. Direct U.S.–Iran fighting has paused, but the status of the ceasefire and of the proposed talks in general is precarious.

Ceasefire violations and the inclusion of Lebanon are major pressure points. Iran is conditioning talks on Lebanon being included in the ceasefire, while the U.S. and Israel reject that completely. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said it may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included. Iranian state media claims that the Iranian delegation has yet to depart for Pakistan, citing ongoing fighting in Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under pressure from the United States to scale back military operations in Lebanon. During a call from President Trump, Netanyahu “agreed to be a helpful partner.” Following the call, the prime minister ordered the Israeli government to start direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The previous day, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets all across Lebanon in what it labeled "Operation Eternal Darkness." The strikes killed over 300 people and injured over 1,100. The Lebanese government declared a day of national mourning the following day on 09 April.

New polling has emerged indicating that public opinion could act as a force to stymie the conflict resolution process. In a YouGov poll, an equal proportion of 34% of Americans believe that no side won the war and that the U.S. won the war, with only 14% seeing Iran as the victor. Meanwhile, in an Israeli poll conducted by Walla and Maariv, 46% of Israelis believe the U.S. and Israel did not achieve victory, with 63% of polled Israelis saying they were dissatisfied with the outcome of the war.

Meanwhile, the precondition for the ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, has not been fulfilled. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump voiced frustrations with Iran’s compliance, saying that "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have.” Four tankers and three bulk carriers crossed through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday, making a total of twelve vessels since the start of the ceasefire—down from upwards of 100 daily in peacetime.

On 07 April, just before the 8 pm ET deadline, President Trump announced on Truth Social a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran agreed to the initial terms and stated that safe passage would be allowed through the Strait during the two-week ceasefire in coordination with Iranian armed forces. Iran is seeking to collect $2 million per vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Annual revenue from such fees could be more than double Iran's revenue from oil and gas exports. The two-week ceasefire will allow the U.S. and Iran to fully negotiate terms of a lasting deal which could prove mutually beneficial, as President Trump told ABC News' Jonathan Karl this morning that "We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it—also securing it from lots of other people.”

President Trump noted that the ten-point plan proposed by Iran "is a workable basis on which to negotiate." Iran's Tasnim state media claims the U.S. agreed to the following conditions as a basis for negotiations. However, it is unlikely that many of these points are agreed upon:

1. The U.S. should commit in principle to guarantee non-aggression.
2. Iran's continued control of the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Accepting enrichment.
4. Lifting all primary sanctions.
5. Lifting all secondary sanctions.
6. Termination of all Security Council resolutions.
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions.
8. Payment of damages to Iran.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Lebanese Hezbollah.

A follow-up Truth Social post this morning shed additional light on a potential agreement, with President Trump saying, "The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” While at odds with Iran's ten-point plan, collaboration with Iran to remove the buried highly enriched Uranium and Iran's agreement to forgo future enrichment would be a significant development in meeting one of the U.S. and Israel's primary goals to never allow a nuclear-armed Iran.

Despite the ceasefire announcement, multiple drone and missile attacks were recorded targeting Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past several hours. These were likely retaliation for attacks on an Iranian refinery on Lavan Island and an unspecified target on Sirri Island earlier on 08 April, though Iran did not specifically blame them, instead saying there was an "attack by enemies." It remains unclear who carried out the strikes on those two Iranian islands.

The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq agreed to abide by the two-week ceasefire, and both Iraq and Syria have reopened airspace as of today. While Israel has agreed to stop attacking Iran, it continues to strike at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

“Iran’s fighting for its survival. It has everything to lose.”

On 04 April, President Trump on Truth Social reiterated the ten-day ultimatum issued on 26 March to Iran to make a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or "all Hell will reign down." A day later President Trump posted on Truth Social saying "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" indicating a 24-hour extension of the deadline. He threatened power plants and bridges, telling Iran, "Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah." Iran responded by rejecting the ultimatum and issued its own warning saying, "the gates of hell will open for you." Iran continues to demand a ceasefire as a prerequisite step to talks. The U.S. ultimatum, Iranian rejection, and extension of the deadline follow a familiar pattern since the U.S. first threatened to take out Iran's power plants on 21 March. Given the escalating rhetoric, it is more likely than not that the U.S. follows through on its latest rounds of threats. 

Over the weekend, the U.S. successfully rescued multiple aircraft crew who were shot down over the region. The Weapons Systems Officer of a downed F-15 was rescued by U.S. commandos after 36 hours behind enemy lines. The operation involved hundreds of special forces personnel, dozens of aircraft, and a CIA deception plan. President Trump will host a briefing on the operation today at 1:00 pm ET. 

Both Japan and the Philippines have reportedly engaged with Iran to secure safe passage of tankers. Both rely heavily on oil from the Gulf. On 04 April, a second Japan-affiliated tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz. At least 40 more vessels tied to Japan remain stuck in the Strait. Iran also granted Iraq permission to transit the Strait.

Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance continue to trade strikes. Tehran, Qom, Ahvaz, and Asaluyeh bore the brunt of strikes over the past 48 hours. Early Monday, both Iranian and Israeli statements confirmed that Major General Seyyed Majid Khademi, the IRGC intelligence chief, was killed in a strike in the capital. Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh, rendering it inoperable. Gulf states continued to deal with Iranian drones and missiles.

On 01 April, President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation framing Operation Epic Fury as "nearing completion" and reiterated that the military will target Iran’s electric facilities if no deal is made with Iranian leadership to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded within hours with a barrage of attacks on Gulf states and a formal vow of "more crushing, broader and more destructive" strikes. 

In the 36 hours since the speech, both the U.S. and Iran have escalated their targeting. The U.S. bombed the Karaj bridge outside Tehran, the Pasteur Institute, a pharmaceutical plant, and a steel factory. Iran has since targeted or claimed to target an Oracle data center in Dubai and an Amazon AWS center in Bahrain. In Kuwait, Iran set multiple units of the Mina Al-Ahmadi port refinery on fire and damaged a water and desalination plant. It also struck the Habshan gas plant in Abu Dhabi, causing a fire. Iran has also vowed to strike energy and telecom infrastructure in the Gulf should the U.S. attack power plants. 

An 02 April Truth Social post by President Trump stated that "Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!". This indicates the 06 April deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and come to a deal with the U.S. is still in effect. 

HOW WOULD AMERICAN GROUND FORCES TAKE KHARG?

“If you grab Kharg, you basically have their oil export capability hostage.”

According to a 31 March report from The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has told aides he is willing to end the campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and under de facto control of Iran. This would keep the conflict within the four-to-six-week window originally laid out and suggests U.S. boots on the ground are now unlikely. President Trump will address the nation tonight at 9 pm ET where it is expected he will announce a timeline to end the conflict. 

President Trump made several public comments over the last 48 hours suggesting the campaign is nearing its end, saying the U.S. offensive in Iran could conclude “in two to three weeks,” adding that the United States would be “leaving soon." The question of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz would not be up to the U.S. to answer, according to President Trump. "The U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump says of allies. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” This may be strategic messaging to other countries to get involved now, with the U.S., or be forced into action later should Iran continue to effectively close the Strait. 

Other administration officials amplified messaging around military objectives being largely met. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 31 March that the main goal of preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon had been achieved. He also clarified that the objectives were the destruction of Iran's air force, the destruction of its navy, the "severe diminishing" of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories. He echoed President Trump's timeline, saying the war could be over in a matter of weeks.  

While Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the U.S. and Israel to end the conflict, it remains to be seen if they will give up their newfound control of the Strait should the U.S. withdraw. They may continue to extract concessions from tankers depending on their allegiances and target those belonging to U.S. allies who do not make significant changes. Iran has previously demanded the Gulf states no longer allow U.S. bases or troops on their territory. They could hold tankers servicing Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia hostage unless they bow to this demand.