The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate vertically, horizontally, and rhetorically with increasing signs that the United States (U.S.) is poised to launch a major attack on Iran this weekend.

• Global Guardian assesses that major U.S. strikes on Iran are likely to commence after U.S. markets close.
• Global Guardian continues to caution against non-essential travel to the Gulf region and recommends that firms with regional assets confirm business continuity and evacuation plans.
• The U.S. State Department's Worldwide Caution originally issued on 18 July was updated on 22 July to highlight risks from potential airspace disruptions and flight cancellations, indicating imminent activity.

The U.S. military has now struck Iran for 10 straight days, targeting military installations threatening tanker ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and other sites in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Qeshm, and other southern and western areas. Iranian infrastructure was also targeted, including bridges, rail links, telecommunications towers, and water service sites in Hormozgan over this period. As a result of the escalation, the U.S. State Department issued a Worldwide Caution on 18 July (updated on 20 July) stating that "Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation." While there has been no specific or imminent threat identified, the caution advises increased awareness for Americans abroad and in the Middle East. 

WHY ISRAEL MAY NEVER LEAVE LEBANON

Global Guardian Head of Research and Intelligence Zev Faintuch contributed analysis to Newsweek as Lebanese President Joseph Aoun prepares to meet with President Trump to discuss Israel's military presence in Lebanon and the path forward for the Trilateral Framework.

Faintuch called the current moment a rare opening: "This is a once in a generation diplomatic opportunity. It's hard to say if there's going to be another Lebanese leader that's going to be this amenable—and if Hezbollah is going to be this weak in the future."

He assessed that while the situation in Lebanon is unsustainable from Israel's perspective, it remains in both parties' best interest to continue the pilot program—making the current diplomatic window critical to watch.

MIDDLE EAST | COLOMBIA

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NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY: HOW FAMILY OFFICES CAN PREPARE FOR TODAY'S COMPLEX RISKS

Global Guardian Founder and CEO Dale Buckner joined UBS Family Office Quarterly to discuss how family offices and organizations can prepare for today's increasingly complex risk environment.

"You need to have on a Rolodex, a phone number, and an email to write in and say, I have someone kidnaped, I have someone stranded, I have someone in a terrorist attack, I have someone in a natural disaster—and know that someone's going to go get them out of that environment."

Dale outlined three areas where family offices consistently fall short:

• Assuming insurance will cover a crisis when most policies exclude terrorism, natural disasters, and conflict zones
• Relying on situational awareness platforms that alert you to a problem without solving it
• Waiting too long to act when a crisis unfolds, when the first 48 to 72 hours are the critical window

Dale also addressed the growing cyber and digital privacy vulnerabilities specific to family offices, and why the threat environment families face today—from deepfakes to kidnap and ransom—looks fundamentally different than it did a decade ago.

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined the Brian Kilmeade Show on Fox News Radio to assess the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the durability of the current ceasefire, and what a realistic end to the conflict might look like.

"The U.S. will prevail, but Iran will not be the big loser in this. They're going to have some sort of role going forward."

During the conversation, Seth outlined Iran's strategic calculus—survival of the regime and economic reconstitution—and why continued pressure in the Strait of Hormuz is less about military capability and more about maximizing leverage at the negotiating table. He also discussed how Global Guardian supported clients in the region during the early days of the war and continues to help corporate and family clients navigate evolving conditions through intelligence, armed security, and crisis response.

Following Iran’s continued targeting of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, on 08 July President Trump declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran. The move came after United States (U.S.) forces struck Iranian coastal sites involved in the attacks on shipping. Since then, the U.S. conducted a second and larger wave of strikes on Iran, spurring a wider Iranian response. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) claims to have struck over 170 Iranian targets in the last 48 hours. The region has returned to a “no war, no peace” paradigm, with the potential to spiral back into full conflict.

One week after two major earthquakes struck northern Venezuela on 24 June 2026, the mismanagement of disaster response by Interim President Delcy Rodríguez’s government is accelerating collapse in public confidence and fueling anti-Chavismo sentiment, increasing the likelihood of anti-government demonstrations and unrest.

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation on 27 June to assess the state of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as continued strikes between Israel and Iran put the agreement under its greatest pressure since it was signed.

"The MOU, frankly, the language in it is complicating the situation because it's vague."

Iran interprets provisions around strait navigation as granting it authority to dictate and discipline commercial shipping—a reading the U.S. and Gulf allies flatly reject. Without a credible third-party arbitrator, Krummrich warned, tit-for-tat attack cycles will continue. On Iran's military capabilities, he cautioned against optimism: even a small residual missile force is enough to create turbulence in the Gulf and sustain Iran's leverage at the negotiating table.

Global Guardian Executive Vice President Seth Krummrich joined NewsNation to assess Iran's latest attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for the fragile U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.

"Iran is in negotiations with us, not because they've changed fundamentally, it's because they're broke."

Krummrich assessed that Iran's continued pressure in the strait is a deliberate effort to strengthen its negotiating position—not a sign of bad faith that will derail talks, but a calculated move to extract more from the reconstruction package under discussion. He cautioned that 47 years of mistrust between the two countries will not resolve in 60 days, and that holding Iran accountable to the MOU will require a credible third-party arbitrator—not just the parties themselves.