MIDDLE EAST WAR REIGNITES MARITIME CHOKEPOINT FEARS

“Tensions in the Middle East have reinforced the analysis of maritime trade and supply chain vulnerabilities.”

The conflict has entered a "no war, no peace" stage of strategic ambiguity. With less than four hours until the ceasefire deadline, on the afternoon of 21 April (local time), President Trump announced an indefinite extension, citing internal Iranian divisions and ordering the continuation of the blockade. The extension came after both sides walked away from talks set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The nuclear issue appears to remain the key sticking point amid major internal divisions between Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi. According to Axios, Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to give clear instructions to negotiators, leaving no final authority to settle the disputes between the regime's hardliners and pragmatists.

As negotiations remain in limbo, U.S. military cargo flights have seen a large surge. During the ceasefire, over 800 cargo flights were tracked throughout the region. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) aircraft carrier appears to be north of Madagascar en route to the Arabian Sea, after an onboard aircraft transmitted its position, according to open-source flight tracking data.

With the blockade remaining in place, attritional and economic pressure has been placed on Iran. In the early hours of 22 April, the IRGC Navy attacked two vessels off the coast of Iran, showcasing its initial response to the new "no war, no peace" paradigm. It is unclear how long either side is willing to remain in this phase without escalating to improve leverage. The situation remains volatile. 

Iran said on 20 April that it had no plans for the next round of negotiations amid the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and ships, and that normalizing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could not happen unilaterally because of U.S. actions. The country's leadership also noted that removing enriched uranium stockpiles was never a negotiation option and has not been discussed in talks. Peace talks scheduled for this evening in Islamabad, Pakistan, appear unlikely to occur.

The latest Iranian comments come after U.S. naval forces intercepted and boarded the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, as it tried to exit the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. CENTCOM says it issued warnings over a six-hour period before the USS Spruance fired at its engine room, disabling the ship. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) then boarded and seized the vessel. This is the first reported use of force to maintain the blockade.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following a reversal of the reopening announcements by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A day after he announced that the Strait was open, the IRGC fired on at least two ships in the Gulf, causing them and others to turn back and signaling the Strait remains closed despite the earlier announcement. The Wall Street Journal reported that there is a growing rift in Iran between the hard-line IRGC and current political leadership, with the reversal over the Strait the latest sign of this split.  

Given the diplomatic, political, and military whiplash over the last 72 hours, it is apparent the U.S. and Iran are as far from a deal as they have ever been and the prospects for a return to some form of conflict are high as the ceasefire is set to expire on 22 April. On 19 April, President Trump said the U.S. will destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran if there is no deal and that he is preparing to hit Iran "harder than ever." A resumption of hostilities would likely include attacks on Gulf states.  

On 17 April, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for all commercial vessels (through the Iran-controlled corridor) for the remaining days of the ceasefire. President Trump voiced optimism about a deal in interviews to reporters on 16 April. He said Iran agreed not to acquire a nuclear weapon and that the agreement that was currently being negotiated “goes beyond 20 years.” He said the prospects for a deal with Iran were “looking very good,” adding that the next meeting with the Iranian delegation could take place during the weekend.

A Pakistani diplomat told Reuters that backchannel diplomacy via Pakistan is ongoing, with a possibility that the next bilateral meeting between the U.S. and Iran involves the signing of a memorandum of understanding, an agreement on principles, before the technical points are agreed upon.

Israel and Lebanon also agreed to a ceasefire lasting 10 days that went into effect on 16 April at 5:00 pm ET. The two countries held in-person talks in Washington, DC on 14 April for the first time in 34 years, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. President Trump also announced the invitation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House as part of a peace push. Of note, the Israel–Lebanon joint statement's preamble included a tacit end to the mutual state of war that has existed since 1948: "Israel and Lebanon affirm that the two countries are not at war," stating that the two countries will continue direct negotiations toward a formal peace agreement.

Much like the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, this deal allows Israel to maintain its buffer zone (around 8% of Lebanese territory) and allows it to conduct "all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks." On 17 April, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said that Israel’s goals for its war against Hezbollah, namely the demilitarization of southern Lebanon, had yet to be realized and would need to either be accomplished diplomatically or through a resumption of fighting after the ceasefire.

The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is as much about the Iran negotiations as it is about Lebanon. Iran has maintained that a ceasefire in Lebanon is a precondition to progress on talks with the U.S. In this light, the Lebanon ceasefire can be seen as calling Iran's bluff. With this obstacle removed, it will now be clearer if there is room to settle the nuclear issue diplomatically.

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On 15 April, Iran's IRGC threatened to forcibly halt exports through the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea if the U.S. blockade continues. This threat comes after two days of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. U.S. CENTCOM said on 14 April that no ships had breached the blockade and that six vessels had so far complied with direction to return to Iranian ports; however, there are conflicting accounts regarding tanker traffic. During the early morning hours of 15 April, Iran's Fars news agency claimed that an Iranian VLCC tanker on the U.S. sanctions list was able to enter the Strait of Hormuz from open water and dock at an Iranian port. 

Despite the ongoing blockade and Iranian threats, the ceasefire appears to be holding. There have been no attacks on Gulf states since the initial violations reported in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Airspace has largely been reopened in the region, except for Kuwait, and multiple airlines are ending their war-related suspensions. The ceasefire is set to expire on 21 April.

Comments made by President Trump on 14 April to ABC News' Jonathan Karl indicate that the next two days will be critical with the U.S. either walking away from further conflict or reaching a deal with Iran. Trump said, "I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead," and that "...I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild. They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals. They’re gone, no longer with us." A second round of negotiations may take place this week in Pakistan, Egypt, or Turkey. Nuclear weapons remain the sticking point.

A GROWING WORRY FOR CEOS: STAYING SAFE IN THEIR HOMES

“Organizations are taking a closer look at how well their top executives are protected and increasingly recognize that their duty of care extends to the home, family, and travel.”

During the evening of 11 April, U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced the failure of negotiations with Iran to produce an agreement. Reports indicate that the U.S. proposed a partial release of frozen Iranian funds and the end to the conflict in exchange for a 20-year freeze on Iranian enrichment, the removal of all enriched material from Iran, and toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After announcing the failure of talks, Vice President Vance explained that the primary sticking point was the nuclear issue: "We need to see an affirmative commitment that [the Iranians] will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."

On 12 April, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy "will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that it will implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on 13 April at 10:00 am ET. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations operating in Iranian coastal areas, including ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Assets from the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with additional destroyers, are expected to support enforcement operations.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering resuming limited strikes on Iran in conjunction with the blockade to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. This report comes as more U.S. military assets have been transferred to the region, and two naval ships have transited the Strait. In addition, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are on their way to the region.

By starting de-mining operations and implementing a blockade all under the cover of a ceasefire, the U.S. is incrementally asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, eroding Iran's main point of leverage. Meanwhile, the blockade will put direct economic pressure on Iran and indirect pressure on China to push Iran to return to the negotiating table.