On 01 April, President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation framing Operation Epic Fury as "nearing completion" and reiterated that the military will target Iran’s electric facilities if no deal is made with Iranian leadership to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded within hours with a barrage of attacks on Gulf states and a formal vow of "more crushing, broader and more destructive" strikes. 

In the 36 hours since the speech, both the U.S. and Iran have escalated their targeting. The U.S. bombed the Karaj bridge outside Tehran, the Pasteur Institute, a pharmaceutical plant, and a steel factory. Iran has since targeted or claimed to target an Oracle data center in Dubai and an Amazon AWS center in Bahrain. In Kuwait, Iran set multiple units of the Mina Al-Ahmadi port refinery on fire and damaged a water and desalination plant. It also struck the Habshan gas plant in Abu Dhabi, causing a fire. Iran has also vowed to strike energy and telecom infrastructure in the Gulf should the U.S. attack power plants. 

An 02 April Truth Social post by President Trump stated that "Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!". This indicates the 06 April deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and come to a deal with the U.S. is still in effect. 

HOW WOULD AMERICAN GROUND FORCES TAKE KHARG?

“If you grab Kharg, you basically have their oil export capability hostage.”

According to a 31 March report from The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has told aides he is willing to end the campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and under de facto control of Iran. This would keep the conflict within the four-to-six-week window originally laid out and suggests U.S. boots on the ground are now unlikely. President Trump will address the nation tonight at 9 pm ET where it is expected he will announce a timeline to end the conflict. 

President Trump made several public comments over the last 48 hours suggesting the campaign is nearing its end, saying the U.S. offensive in Iran could conclude “in two to three weeks,” adding that the United States would be “leaving soon." The question of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz would not be up to the U.S. to answer, according to President Trump. "The U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump says of allies. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” This may be strategic messaging to other countries to get involved now, with the U.S., or be forced into action later should Iran continue to effectively close the Strait. 

Other administration officials amplified messaging around military objectives being largely met. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 31 March that the main goal of preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon had been achieved. He also clarified that the objectives were the destruction of Iran's air force, the destruction of its navy, the "severe diminishing" of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories. He echoed President Trump's timeline, saying the war could be over in a matter of weeks.  

While Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on the U.S. and Israel to end the conflict, it remains to be seen if they will give up their newfound control of the Strait should the U.S. withdraw. They may continue to extract concessions from tankers depending on their allegiances and target those belonging to U.S. allies who do not make significant changes. Iran has previously demanded the Gulf states no longer allow U.S. bases or troops on their territory. They could hold tankers servicing Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia hostage unless they bow to this demand.

NEED TO BE EXTRACTED FROM THE MIDDLE EAST? CALL YOUR WEALTH MANAGER

“Family offices and high net worth clients are looking for a concierge—one button where they have one phone number, one email and all of these services can be at their beck and call.”

As the conflict with Iran drives evacuation demand across the Middle East, the Financial Times reported on how wealth managers are expanding services to support clients facing evolving security risks, with Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner noting increased demand for integrated security, logistics, and travel coordination.

He added that Global Guardian has evacuated more than 4,000 people from the region since the start of the conflict, including many clients supported by family offices and wealth managers, with operations spanning ground movements out of the UAE and private charter flights to Europe.

“We’re probably closer to the beginning or middle of this story than we are to the end.”

As the conflict with Iran continues to evolve, CNBC spoke with Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich about the escalation indicators organizations should be watching.

Krummrich highlighted several key triggers, including disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, financial actions by Gulf states, and the possibility of a U.S. mass casualty event. Any of these developments could signal a significant shift in the threat environment and materially affect organizations operating in or tied to the region.

He added that for businesses with people or operations on the ground, these indicators may serve as critical decision points for reassessing contingency, evacuation, and continuity plans.

On 28 March, the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen entered the conflict by launching a ballistic missile at Israel and two drones the following day. This follows threats made by the group the previous day. It likely serves as a warning to Israel and the Gulf states that they have the capability to inflict damage should things escalate with Iran. 

There were multiple diplomatic developments over the weekend. Spain’s military said it had closed its airspace to U.S. military flights assisting in the war against Iran while Pakistan hosted meetings involving Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani officials. President Donald Trump said that “great progress” had been made in talks with a “new” Iranian government; however, he also said in a Financial Times interview that his preference would be to "take the oil in Iran." These comments come amid ongoing troop deployments to the region. President Trump also said, "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't." While rhetoric around negotiations appears positive, troop buildup and active threats to Iran on social media indicate further escalation is likely. 

In addition to ground operations seizing and occupying Kharg Island, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the administration is considering a complex operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's enriched uranium that could be used to make nuclear weapons. Iran giving up its nuclear program and handing over its highly enriched uranium are key requirements for ending the conflict according to President Trump. 

Meanwhile, the Gulf states continued to report interception activity from Iranian attacks. In Kuwait, a power and desalination plant was damaged with repair work underway. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan all said they intercepted missiles and drones over the last several days, with Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Industrial Zone reporting multiple fires on 28 March. Qatar experienced multiple Iranian drone incursions over the weekend, the first after a multi-day pause in targeting by Iran.

On 26 March, President Trump announced the U.S. would delay strikes on Iranian power plants until 06 April and said negotiations were going very well. This follows an earlier extension of the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, set to expire today. At the same time, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said there were "strong signs" of a ceasefire deal and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said intermediary countries were “passing messages, and progress has been made” in talks with Iran.  

Despite more positive rhetoric around negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the region. Taken together, the extension of President Trump’s deadline, the potential troop increase, and Sen. Nancy Mace’s comments after a classified briefing suggest the U.S. is going to deploy troops to Iranian-controlled islands in the Strait of Hormuz within the next one to two weeks.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis threatened military intervention in the Iran conflict "if necessary" but have yet to explicitly commit to any particular redlines. It is possible that the group will return to attacks on Red Sea shipping or oil and gas infrastructure should the U.S. put boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz.

HOW A US ASSAULT ON KHARG ISLAND COULD UNFOLD

“Any operation to seize Kharg Island would be economic warfare—you are fighting in a completely different and more complex space.” 

As the U.S. weighs next steps in the conflict with Iran, the Financial Times examined how a potential operation targeting Kharg Island—the country’s primary oil export hub—could reshape both the battlefield and global energy markets.

Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich noted that targeting critical energy infrastructure would extend beyond traditional military objectives into economic disruption, with ripple effects across global markets and regional stability.