The Strait of Hormuz remains the current focal point of the conflict after the U.S. conducted strikes late on 13 March targeting Iran's military infrastructure on Kharg Island, the country's primary energy export hub. This could be in preparation for a ground operation after the U.S. announced the deployment of part of an amphibious ready group, including an attached Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), to the region. The U.S. strike on the island left its oil infrastructure intact, but President Donald Trump warned that if Iran or anyone else interferes with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will reconsider his decision not to destroy it.

After the attack on Kharg Island, Iran threatened retaliation against multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it claims U.S. attacks originated: “[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is preparing to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Many countries, including NATO allies, have either declined or been noncommittal; however, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced on 16 March that the UK is working on a "viable plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with allies. This comes after President Trump said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if allies don't help secure the Strait.

Relatedly, Saudi Arabia's East–West Pipeline is now moving nearly 7 million bpd from the Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate some of the supply disruptions. Dozens of tankers are now making their way through the Red Sea to the Yanbu terminal to load up on crude oil; however, there is growing concern that the Houthis in Yemen could attempt to disrupt the route. In addition, a spokesman for Iran's joint command (Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters) warned that "The logistical and service centers for the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Red Sea are considered targets by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." Yanbu port is the logistical hub for the USS Gerald R. Ford, raising concerns it will be targeted. 

On 12 March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil through various Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). These SPRs are held by its 32 member countries that voted unanimously to move forward with the release. President Trump announced the U.S. would release 172 million barrels from its 415-million-barrel reserve. Asia has been affected most heavily by the supply shock due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It relies on the Gulf for some 60% of its oil imports. Japan will release around 80 million barrels, equivalent to a 45-day supply.   

The IEA decision comes a day after Iraq shut down its fuel port operations following strikes on several tankers in its territorial waters by explosive-laden, unmanned boats. The only tankers passing through the Strait are Iranian ships headed for China, or ones that receive special approval as has occurred for some Turkish and Chinese-flagged vessels.

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both commented on the possibility of U.S. Navy escorts of tankers through the Strait. Secretary Bessent said it could happen with an international coalition. While no timeline was given, President Trump has frequently said it would happen "as soon as possible" or "as soon as necessary." It's likely the release of the SPR will push back the timing on possible Navy escorts while the U.S. continues to degrade Iran's military capabilities.

“They are fighting for their survival… and survival is their number one goal.”

As the conflict with Iran continues to reshape regional security dynamics, NewsNation spoke with Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich about how Tehran may approach the next phase of the crisis.

Krummrich explained that Iran is likely pursuing a two-track strategy—externally disrupting the global economy and regional stability while internally focusing on regime survival amid growing domestic pressures and infrastructure failures.

ECUADOR | Ethiopia & Eritrea

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Various news outlets have reported that the IRGC Navy has mined or is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to inflict maximum economic pain on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the U.S. This reporting prompted President Trump to issue a warning to Iran to remove the mines immediately and if they “are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before." President Trump followed up by announcing multiple strikes on Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Iran has also escalated its targeting threats on two fronts. The first is on U.S. and Israeli economic centers and banks in the region in retaliation for a strike on an Iranian bank on 10 March. An IRGC-linked group warned residents in the region to stay at least 1 km away from these assets. The second is American tech firms ostensibly with ties to the U.S. government through contracts. An Al Jazeera report, citing Iran's Tasnim news agency, published a list of what it said was Iran's new targets, including offices tied to Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir in Israel and around the region, including in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. “With the expansion of the regional war into an infrastructure war, the scope of Iran’s legitimate targets gradually becomes broader,” the post reads.

While these threats should not be taken lightly, Iran has been consistently mixed in its messaging versus reality when it comes to strike targets. This is primarily due to a lack of command and control structure and communication between leadership and the military forces launching missiles and drones.

Separately, over the past five days, a cluster of terrorism incidents across the West has raised alarm about Iranian-linked blowback from the ongoing conflict: 

• On 07 March, two men were arrested in New York after deploying an improvised explosive device at a protest.
• In the early hours of 09 March, a bomb exploded outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, and a separate blast hit the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway—both under investigation as potential terror acts.
• In Toronto on 10 March, two suspects fired multiple shots at the U.S. Consulate at 360 University Avenue, following three separate synagogue shootings in the Greater Toronto Area over the last two weekends.
  
• These incidents coincide with a surge of intelligence warnings issued over the same period. The U.S. intelligence community has circulated private bulletins to American companies and law enforcement urging vigilance against cyber and physical attacks, with DHS warning of a heightened threat environment following the killing of Khamenei, citing two senior Iranian religious leaders who issued separate Farsi-language fatwas calling for worldwide retaliation, and an IRGC warning.
• Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence officials are warning that intercepted encrypted transmissions from Iran may be an “operational trigger” for sleeper agents. While no specific, credible threat has been announced, the FBI has elevated its alert level nationwide, with authorities particularly focused on U.S. energy infrastructure, the financial sector, and defense contractors with ties to Israeli firms.  

AS ISRAEL INTENSIFIES LEBANON ATTACKS, HEZBOLLAH DISARMAMENT TAKES BACKSEAT

“At best, we can expect arrest warrants and raids—but not head-to-head fighting with foot soldiers.”

As Israel intensifies attacks in Lebanon and Hezbollah resumes fighting, Al Jazeera examined how the renewed escalation is complicating the Lebanese government’s efforts to disarm the group.

Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich explained that the army is unlikely to directly confront Hezbollah battalions. Instead, he said any enforcement actions would more likely involve limited arrests or raids rather than direct battlefield engagements.

“It’s a combination of ground and air—moving people across borders to safe locations and then getting them onto private or commercial flights.”

As evacuation operations continue across the Middle East, Fox Business spoke with Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner about the logistics behind safely moving thousands of travelers out of the region.

Buckner explained that Global Guardian teams have coordinated ground convoys and charter aircraft to relocate people from high-risk areas into neighboring countries and functional airports where they can continue their journey home.

PRIVATE SECURITY FIRM HELPING AMERICANS EVACUATE THE MIDDLE EAST AMID WAR WITH IRAN

"We’re communicating, we’re coordinating, we’re executing."

As Americans and other travelers seek ways to leave the Middle East amid the escalating conflict with Iran, Fox News reported on Global Guardian’s evacuation operations and the logistical coordination required to move people out of the region.

Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner and Deputy Vice President of Operations Colin O’Brien described the complex coordination required to move travelers out of high-risk areas, including arranging ground transportation across borders and securing onward flights as conditions continue to shift.