Maduro’s Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president on 05 January. While Maduro has been removed, the regime remains intact for now. The U.S. believes they have a compliant leader in Rodríguez, who will act in a provisional capacity while the U.S. manages the transition to democracy, for which a timeline has not been proposed.
It is unclear how compliant Rodríguez will be given that immediate regime actions are in line with traditional decision making. The day after Maduro’s capture, the regime deployed the colectivos, government paramilitaries created to suppress opposition, to the street. Rodríguez also ordered security forces to find and arrest anyone responsible for helping the U.S. capture Maduro.
Rodríguez is in a difficult position. She needs to maintain the support of the regime establishment and the military, while acquiescing to demands from the Trump administration. She faces the risk of a coup from within or being killed by the U.S. Trump has threatened that worse will happen to Rodríguez if she does not comply with U.S. demands, a threat which is likely perceived as real by the regime.
U.S. Interests & Transition Plan
- President Trump announced that Venezuela would "turn over between 30-50 million barrels of oil" to the U.S. in the coming months. The U.S. would then sell that oil at market value with the proceeds controlled by the U.S. for benefit of both the U.S. and Venezuela. Additional announcements clarified that the proceeds would only be used by Venezuela to purchase from the U.S.
- On 07 January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a rough outline of the transition plan.
- Stabilize - use the blockade of sanctioned oil tankers and threat of violence to pressure Rodriguez to comply with U.S. demands.
- Recovery - start the process of reconciliation—amnesty for the opposition, freeing of political prisoners, and the rebuilding of civil society.
- Transition - hold fresh elections or otherwise transition to new government leadership under July 2024 election winner Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.
Regional Reactions & Implications
- The leadership of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, México, and Uruguay issued a joint statement condemning the U.S. operation, denouncing the use of force, and arguing it violated Venezuelan sovereignty and international law.
- The leadership of Ecuador, Paraguay, Guatemala, Guyana, El Salvador, Peru, Argentina, and Trinidad & Tobago all publicly supported the operation.
- Over the past week, top figures within the Trump administration have suggested that Cuba is ready to fall. President Trump appears more passive, while Secretary Rubio sounds interested in considering a kinetic “push” to topple the Cuban government. Cuba, already struggling with frequent blackouts, relies on Venezuelan oil to function. Choking off this oil may hasten the demise of the Cuban regime on its own.
- It is unclear whether the Trump administration seeks to conduct a similar operation in Cuba. The Trump administration lacks both the regional support and legal pretext to actively topple the Cuban government. While Venezuela has very few friends and a long list of nations with grievances in the region, Cuba is generally viewed positively.
- Given the frequency of high-level diplomatic visits across Latin America this year, it is probable the Trump administration does consider regional consensus and is unlikely to weaken an otherwise impressive expansion of U.S. regional partnerships throughout 2025.
- There is even less justification, sense, or likelihood of striking President Gustavo Petro of Colombia. The spat between Presidents Trump and Petro has been mostly rooted in personal disagreements. On 07 January, the presidents spoke by phone, in an apparently positive conversation.
- While both criminal groups and cocaine production have boomed under Petro’s administration, these results are more likely tied to incompetence rather than corruption. Further, Petro has eight months left in his administration, and his party does not appear to be poised to win the 2026 election. The most likely scenario is a return to traditional Colombia-U.S. relations under a U.S.-friendly president.
Recommendations
- Continue to monitor developments in Venezuela.
- Abide by official directives to shelter-in-place.
- Consider activating evacuation plans should the situation deteriorate.
STANDING BY TO Support
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