As of 20 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst massive U.S. military buildup in the region, stalling negotiations, and increasingly concerning statements from American, European, and Iranian officials. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following:
- Avoid non-essential travel to Israel.
- Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
- Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.
U.S. Force Posture
- A second U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group, led by the USS Gerald Ford, is enroute to the region and was spotted passing the Strait of Gibraltar on 20 February, meaning it could be "in position" in the eastern Mediterranean between 22-23 February.
- Hundreds of air and naval assets—including F-35, F-22, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, mobile command aircraft, early-warning aircraft, refueling tankers, and more—have made their way to the region in the last month as part of a massive logistics operation to support potential offensive and defensive requirements.
- Multiple Patriot and THAAD air defense batteries have been deployed across the region.
Recent Timeline
- 19 February: President Trump says we will be "...finding out probably over the next ten days" in regards to a possible agreement with Iran. This comes amid reports that Secretary Rubio will be visiting Israel on 28 February.
- 19 February: Polish Prime Minister Tusk warns Polish citizens to leave Iran immediately as options to evacuate may not be available much longer.
- 18 February: Israel moves to high alert and postpones security cabinet meeting until Sunday “to avoid Iranian miscalculation,” while Magen David Adom (MDA) is instructed to prepare for a full-scale war with Iran.
- 17 February: Third round of U.S.–Iran talks took place in Geneva. Both sides agreed to meet again. Iran said it would respond to the latest U.S. proposals around its nuclear program within two weeks.
Forecast
- Given the buildup in the region and low probability of a deal, U.S. strikes are more likely than not over the coming weeks.
- If President Trump decides to give the greenlight ahead of the two-week negotiations "deadline," strikes could occur as soon as the USS Gerald Ford reaches the eastern Mediterranean (22-23 February).
- Mitigating factors that point to a later strike date include the ongoing joint IRGC/Russian naval exercises in the region, Sec. Rubio's visit to Israel on the 28th, and President Trump's comments re: finding out "in the next ten days."
Triggers Signaling Conflict is Imminent
- Airlines cancelling routes into or out of the region.
- Airspace closures above Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and the GCC countries.
- Embassy orders to evacuate personnel or shelter in place in the region.
Strikes
- Strikes conducted by the U.S. will likely be supplemented by Israeli military assets with the goal of total destruction of Iran's offensive and defensive military capabilities, and the remainder of its nuclear sites.
- Attacks on Iran's leadership structure or oil and gas infrastructure would signal a higher escalation potential.
- The campaign is likely to take weeks, and the U.S. has said it is prepared for such a commitment.
- In any scenario, Iran is likely to retaliate (with the help from its regional proxies) by targeting regional U.S. forces and civilian and military targets in Israel.
- Iran has options to inflict economic and political pain on the U.S. by striking petroleum infrastructure across the region, including in the GCC states; ordering the Houthis in Yemen to target Red Sea shipping, mining, or shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, and conducting asymmetric warfare such as cyberattacks and acts of terror through its proxy networks.
- Airspace disruptions are likely across the region.
Recommendations
- Avoid non-essential travel to Israel.
- Reconsider travel to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
- Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
