As of 26 February 2026, the situation in Mexico has stabilized. Late on 24 February, the state government of Jalisco lifted the "Code Red", reopening public transportation, the municipal government, and schools across the state. In Puerto Vallarta, commercial flights resumed in earnest. At the same time, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico lifted its shelter-in-place order but maintained a curfew for government staff in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzmán (Jalisco), and Tijuana (Baja California). This curfew was lifted late on 25 February.
The Mexican government has deployed thousands of troops and federal officers to impacted areas to shore up security, dissuade violence, and bring peace of mind to the residents and visitors to those communities. In Quintana Roo, the governor deployed some 10,000 personnel, highlighting the seriousness of maintaining security in tourist areas which are vital to the Mexican economy.
recommendations for Future Travel
- Puerto Vallarta - Travel can proceed as planned but recommend utilizing secure transportation. Stick to daytime overland movements.
- Guadalajara - Travel can proceed as planned but recommend utilizing secure transportation. Stick to daytime overland movements.
- Cancun, Tulum, Playa del Carmen - Travel can proceed as planned.
- Tijuana - Travel can proceed as planned but recommend utilizing secure transportation. Stick to daytime overland movements.
- Mexico City - Travel can proceed as planned.
- Monterrey - Travel can proceed as planned.
- Border Cities (Reynosa, Matamoros, Nuevo Laredo, Ciudad Juarez) - Travel can proceed as planned but strongly recommend utilizing secure transportation due to chronic security concerns not tied to CJNG retaliatory violence. Stick to daytime overland movements.
World Cup outlook
- While the scenes of violence in 2026 World Cup host city Guadalajara will likely be at the forefront of traveler perceptions, the location of matches is not likely to change. FIFA President Gianni Infantino stated that he has full confidence in the Mexican government's ability to guarantee security for the event and expects it to run smoothly. The FIFA World Cup is still several months away, allowing for expanded federal deployments and the implementation of security measures. Conversely, the security situation may also deteriorate if the CJNG fragments as a result of a succession crisis, which will play out in shootouts across CJNG territory. These dynamics necessitate close monitoring of local news and government travel alerts.
- As a result of the violence and concern expressed around the World Cup, both the state and federal governments will maintain increased security presence in Guadalajara through the World Cup this summer. At least 2,500 military personnel have been deployed to Jalisco state since 22 February with more likely to arrive in the coming weeks and months to bolster security ahead of the World Cup.
CJNG Succession
It remains unclear who will ultimately succeed Oseguera Cervantes. With his son, Rubén Oseguera González, imprisoned in the United States, there is no clear successor to an organization with an expansive geographical reach and multiple semi-autonomous regional commanders.
Unconfirmed reporting and criminal-sphere rumors have focused on four primary figures:
- Audias Flores Silva, “El Jardinero” - a senior CJNG commander with deep influence in core territories, previously handled negotiations with Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel.
- Ricardo Ruíz Velasco “Doble R” - a top CJNG combat commander in home state of Jalisco and major battleground in Guanajuato.
- Gonzalo Mendoza Gaitán "El Sapo" - a key logistics leader, a crucial figure in CJNG's drug sourcing and trafficking as well as training and recruiting foot soldiers.
- Juan Carlos Valencia González, "El 01" - El Mencho's son-in-law, responsible for manufacturing, transporting, and distributing narcotics.
Even if a successor is quickly declared, internal fragmentation remains highly likely. Unlike the more family-centric structure of the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG expanded rapidly across diverse regions with commanders who control independent revenue streams. This structure increases the likelihood of factional competition, splinter groups, or temporary alliances with rival organizations over the coming weeks to months.
Recommendations
- Utilize secure transportation for any overland movements within impacted areas.
- Avoid rural parts of Jalisco, Michoacán, and other impacted areas as ongoing violence is more likely in those regions.
- Be prepared for additional disruptions caused by retaliatory violence carried out by the CJNG.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
