As of 27 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst a continued U.S. military buildup in the region, as yet unsuccessful negotiations, and other indicators and warnings suggesting imminent strikes. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following:
- Avoid non-essential travel to Israel. Consider leaving Israel while commercial flight options remain available.
- Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
- Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.
U.S. FORCE POSTURE - UPDATE
- A second U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, is now in position off Haifa, Israel after stopping in Greece to resupply for several days.
- Six more F-22A "Raptor" fighter jets from Langley’s 1st Fighter Wing are en route to RAF Lakenheath, accompanied by supporting tankers. This deployment will raise the total number of F-22s at Lakenheath to 13 and will bring the total number moving east from the U.S. to 24, as 11 have already relocated to Israel.
- F-22 fighter jets are typically among the last aircraft to be deployed before an operation begins, and they do not remain in theater for very long. Their movement portends near-term activity.
- Satellite imagery shows that Al Udeid Air Base outside Doha, Qatar has been completely evacuated with only one KC-135 tanker stationed in preparation for retaliatory strikes by Iran.
RECENT TIMELINE
- 27 February: U.S. Embassy in Israel ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and their families. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee then urged these personnel and families to leave Israel today while commercial flights remained available.
- 26 February: U.S.–Iran negotiations took place in Geneva with initial talks lasting three hours before reconvening later in the evening. No deal was announced. Sources close to the situation said significant progress was made while others say the gap remains quite large between the two sides. Oman's Foreign Minister said further discussions will take place next week. This does not preclude strikes before the next round of negotiations.
- 25 February: Australia has ordered the families of its diplomats stationed in Lebanon and Israel to depart, citing a worsening security environment across the region. Authorities in Australia also said they are facilitating optional departures for dependents of officials based in Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
- 23 February: The U.S. ordered non-essential staff and their family members to leave its embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. This is a precautionary step should Iran activate Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- 23 February: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio postponed a planned visit to Israel on 28 February to Monday, 01 March, indicating that strikes may be planned for 28-29 February.
- 21 February: The United Arab Emirates announced they had thwarted reported "organized cyber attacks of a terrorist nature" targeting "digital infrastructure." While Iran was not blamed for the attack, they are the primary suspects.
forecast
- Given the buildup in the region and low probability of a deal, U.S. strikes are likely over the coming weeks. Previous U.S. military operations (Iran, Venezuela) took place over a weekend, and we anticipate similar timing for this potential operation.
- If President Trump decides to give the greenlight, we believe strikes could happen as early as morning hours local time on 28 February (evening hours EST on Friday the 27th).
triggers signaling conflict is imminent
- Airlines cancelling routes into or out of the region.
- Airspace closures above Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and the GCC countries.
- Embassy orders to evacuate personnel or shelter in place in the region.
STRIKES
- There are two kinetic scenario categories: limited strikes and a broad campaign. Limited strikes would involve U.S. public messaging to signal the scope of operations to contain escalation and would take place over a short duration. A broader campaign would take place over weeks.
- Should U.S. strikes be supplemented by Israeli military assets, it would signify a broad military campaign.
- Attacks on Iran's leadership structure, or oil and gas infrastructure, would signal a higher escalation potential.
- In any scenario, Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional U.S. forces. An AFP map shows the bases in the region used by the U.S. and the range of various Iranian ballistic missiles. The entry of Iran's regional proxies or Iran's targeting of civilian and military targets in Israel, increases the escalation potential.
- Iran has options to inflict economic and political pain on the U.S. by striking petroleum infrastructure across the region, including in the GCC states—ordering the Houthis in Yemen to target Red Sea shipping, mining, or shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, and conducting asymmetric warfare such as cyberattacks and acts of terror through its proxy networks.
- Airspace disruptions are likely across the region.
Recommendations
- Avoid non-essential travel to Israel. Consider leaving Israel while commercial flights remain available.
- Reconsider travel to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
- Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Evacuation planning and execution
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
