Israel and the United States continued to strike hundreds of targets in Iran with heavy strikes reported across Tehran. Israeli officials claim to have destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles and around 200 ballistic missile launchers as the U.S. continued to strike Iranian naval targets. President Trump said the bombing would continue "throughout the week or as long as necessary.”
On the diplomatic front, President Trump told The Atlantic that Iran wants to resume negotiations with the U.S. after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them.” Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, told his Omani counterpart in a phone call that Tehran is open to any serious efforts at de-escalation. While these channels are open, it is unclear who in Iran has the authority to make an agreement. Meanwhile, the UAE has closed its embassy in Iran and withdrew its ambassador and all diplomats in response to the regime’s ongoing missile and drone attacks targeting the UAE.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Sheltering in lower floors, away from glass, and in underground parking is preferred.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
- Avoid proximity to U.S. (and Israeli) diplomatic missions in Europe and the Middle East.
TACTICAL UPDATE
- Iran's regional proxies have not yet formally activated.
- The IDF says it has mobilized 100,000 reservists, reinforcing Israel's borders with Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and in the West Bank. Israel has extended the state of emergency until 12 March, indicating that it estimates accomplishing its aims will take at least 11 more days.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt after Iranian threats and the accompanying increase in insurance premiums. Maersk has announced it is pausing all sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Hormuz. The IRGC claimed to have struck three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
- According to Manoto, an Iranian opposition channel, Motjaba Khamenei was killed alongside his father. Motjaba, also a cleric, acted as a power broker within the Office of the Supreme Leader and the Basij, and was considered a front runner for succession.
SITUATION REPORT
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Saudi, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Omani airspace remain open for the time being, though many cancellations are being reported in Oman.
- The land border crossing between the UAE and Oman remains open but subject to increased security, delays, and potential closure at any moment.
- Iran has shutdown internet access, and reporting out of the country remains sparse.
- Regional U.S. Embassy Warnings:
- Bahrain: shelter in place; warns against sheltering in high rise buildings in Manama and Juffair areas
- Egypt: exercise increased caution
- Iran: shelter in place
- Iraq: do not travel, be prepared to shelter in place
- Israel: shelter in place
- Jordan: shelter in place
- Kuwait: shelter in place
- Lebanon: urges citizens in-county to depart while commercial options available; advises against travel to Lebanon
- Oman: advised to shelter-in-place
- Qatar: shelter in place
- Saudi Arabia: shelter in place (Jeddah and Dhahran only); limit all other non-essential travel
- United Arab Emirates (UAE): shelter in place
- Syria: plan to depart or shelter in place
ANALYSIS
- Iran's next escalation path is to target energy infrastructure.
- The violent mass protests in Iraq and Pakistan, and dozens of protests reported across Europe, demonstrate a degree of anti-U.S. sentiment stemming from the war and assassination of the Ayatollah Khamenei. Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi issued a fatwa calling Khamenei's killing a "religious duty of all Muslims worldwide to avenge." It is possible that this sentiment produces lone wolf terrorist attacks or prompts Iran-directed attacks over the coming days and weeks. While there are no Iran connections, the FBI is probing a link to terrorism in the overnight shooting in Austin, Texas. In Europe, Hungary officially raised its terrorist threat alert by one level, explicitly citing the risk of Iranian retaliatory action.
- Iran may have overplayed its hand by rapidly internationalizing the conflict. A growing number of countries have expressed outrage over Iran’s indiscriminate attacks. France is now sending their aircraft carrier, after its main regional naval base was hit and the UK and Germany discussed efforts to “defend common interests.” Meanwhile, foreign ministers from the six Persian Gulf countries condemned the Iranian attacks on their nations and said that they reserved the right to respond to the assault. It is possible that other nations join operations in the coming days.
STANDING BY TO Support
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- Evacuation planning and execution
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