Overnight, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened early Sunday morning to hit Iran with unprecedented force after Tehran warned it would step up attacks in retaliation for the killing of its supreme leader. Iranian President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi from the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, will temporarily govern the country. It is still unclear who will replace the Supreme Leader, though it is likely that a successor has been appointed in secret.
Death tolls are rising across the GCC and Israel with at least three in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one in Kuwait, and 11 in Israel, following continuous missile/drone strikes in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Israel. Iran claims to now have struck 27 U.S. bases across the region. While delivering rhetorical support, Iran's regional proxies have yet to fully activate.
Iran will continue to target key traveler-focused assets in the Gulf region such as luxury hotels, airports, and oil & gas commercial compounds should they choose to escalate.
ONGOING RECOMMENDATIONS
- Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Sheltering in lower floors, away from glass, and in underground parking is preferred.
- If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
- Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.
- Avoid proximity to U.S. (and Israeli) diplomatic missions in Europe and the Middle East.
TACTICAL UPDATE
- The IDF has carried out 1,200 strikes in the last 24 hours—more than the entire 12-Day war. The U.S. has carried out 900 strikes.
- The Crowne Plaza Hotel in Manama was struck, the latest in a concerted effort to target the travel sector in the Gulf.
- Major anti-U.S. protests have been reported in Baghdad, Iraq, and Karachi and Lahore, Pakistan. At least nine protesters were killed in Karachi after the protest turned violent when they tried to enter the U.S. Consulate.
- Two vessels have reported incidents off the coast of Oman, including a Palau-flagged oil tanker called Skylight.
- At least one person was injured when two drones fell on structures at Oman's Port of Duqm.
- CENTCOM confirms three U.S. service members were killed in action and five seriously wounded.
SITUATION REPORT
- Airspace remains closed across most of the region, along with significant ongoing flight cancellations. Saudi, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Omani airspace remain open for the time being, though many cancellations are being reported in Oman.
- The land border crossing between the UAE and Oman remains open but subject to increased security, delays, and potential closure at any moment.
- Iran has shutdown internet access, and reporting out of the country remains sparse.
- Regional U.S. Embassy Warnings:
- Bahrain: shelter in place; warns against sheltering in high rise buildings in Manama & Juffair areas
- Egypt: exercise increased caution
- Iran: shelter in place
- Iraq: do not travel, be prepared to shelter in place
- Israel: shelter in place
- Jordan: shelter in place
- Kuwait: shelter in place
- Lebanon: urges citizens in-county to depart while commercial options available; advises against travel to Lebanon
- Oman: advised to shelter-in-place
- Qatar: shelter in place
- Saudi Arabia: shelter in place (Jeddah & Dhahran only); limit all other non-essential travel
- United Arab Emirates (UAE): shelter in place
- Syria: plan to depart or shelter in place
ANALYSIS
- Iran's main effort appears focused on the GCC countries, particularly the UAE and Bahrain. Iran hopes that the GCC will pressure the U.S. to provide an off-ramp to Iran or offer a ceasefire.
- Iran's next escalation path is to target energy infrastructure.
- The killing of the Supreme Leader may trigger terrorist attacks against U.S. or Israeli interests on any continent.
STANDING BY TO Support
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- Evacuation planning and execution
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