On 14 June, the U.S. and Iran agreed to an interim agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal after mediation by Pakistan and Qatar. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have reportedly both electronically signed the framework agreement with Iran’s lead negotiator and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is expected to be signed by VP Vance and Speaker Ghalibaf on 19 June in Geneva, Switzerland.
There have been several leaks of the document, though the details of the agreement are yet to be confirmed. At a press conference on 16 June, President Trump said that he would make the text public once the deal is signed.
Global Guardian assesses that the risk of conflict resuming over the ensuing 60 days will fall dramatically upon signing the MOU. While the conflict is considered paused, a signed and completed nuclear agreement at the 60-day mark is highly unlikely.
On 16 June, Bloomberg and Al Arabiya released what they purport to be copies of the MOU text. While the contents are not yet confirmed, the leaks offer what may be the sequencing dynamics of the deal. Upon the signing of the MOU, Iran has 30 days to remove mines and ensure the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will lift the blockade on Iran (already underway), and the U.S. will issue temporary sanctions waivers for Iranian crude and other petrochemical exports.
Notably, the MOU prevents the U.S. from using any additional means of economic or military pressure during the next round of negotiations and there is no mention of Iran's missile program, proxy network, or explicit commitments barring Iran from charging transit fees for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. The remainder of the agreement is contingent on diplomatic progress towards a final nuclear agreement and includes various carrots for Iran. These include: the formulation of a USD $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran that the White House claims will be funded by the Gulf States and through private sector investment, the elimination of all sanctions, the unfreezing of USD $24 billion of Iranian funds, and the withdrawal of U.S. regional forces upon a final agreement.
President Trump has twice warned, in a 14 June New York Times interview and again on 17 June at the G7 Summit, that the failure to reach a final nuclear agreement could prompt the U.S. to resume military operations against Iran.
Lebanon remains a major tripwire and point of uncertainty surrounding the deal. According to U.S. officials, the MOU allows for Israel's self-defense and does not necessitate an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. But the ceasefire does preclude offensive Israeli action. However, Hezbollah and Iran continue to maintain that any truce with Israel will be predicated on a total Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, on 15 June, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz separately stated that Israel will not withdraw from its buffer zone in southern Lebanon. With differing interpretations of what the MOU means for Lebanon, the ambiguity leaves room for spoilers. Iran will be able to use continued fighting as a pretext to leave the negotiating table and Israel also maintains the ability to stymie talks by striking Beirut.
Situation Report
- 17 June: At the G7 Summit, President Trump says the memorandum with Iran is "not final" and that the U.S. will "go back to dropping bombs" if the agreement is not to his liking.
- 16 June: According to AIS data, three Iranian oil tankers crossed the U.S. blockade line.
- 16 June: Bloomberg and Al Arabiya release unverified copies of the MOU text.
- 15 June: A container vessel reports being fired on and approached by a small skiff 14 NM south of the coast of Yemen.
- 15 June: PM Netanyahu holds a press conference claiming the war goals have been achieved and that Israeli forces will remain in its “security zone” in southern Lebanon “as long as necessary.”
- 15 June: Axios reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe, citing intel on Iranian intentions, doubts Iran will commit to nuclear concessions.
- 15 June: VP Vance tells NBC that the deal “absolutely” includes nuclear inspectors returning to Iran. “One of the core parts of the agreement is that the IAEA and the United States are going to help Iran destroy the highly enriched stockpile.”
- 14 June: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) confirms the end of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
- 14 June: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announces that a ceasefire is reached. “Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” The U.S. and Iran both confirm the ceasefire agreement.
- 14 June: Iran threatens a “strong response” following Israel’s attack on Beirut. U.S., Qatari, and Pakistani mediation reportedly prevents an Iranian strike on Israel.
- 14 June: Three Hezbollah drones explode near Shomera and Shlomi, northern Israel. Israel launches an airstrike on an alleged Hezbollah command center in southern Beirut (Dahiyeh) in response. The strike kills a Hezbollah commander and two others.
- 12 June: Pakistan's PM says text of U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement is finalized.
- 11 June: President Trump claims on Truth Social that he cancelled planned strikes on Iran citing Iran’s approval of the ceasefire.
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