The current no war no peace paradigm is becoming increasingly unstable. The past two weeks have seen kinetic exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, and now Iran and Israel every two to three days. Iran has shown that it will attack Israel to defend Hezbollah, attack U.S. bases in the Gulf in response to U.S. attacks on its territory, and attack vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz that do not use its "toll booth" system or in response to U.S. blockade enforcement activities.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has shown that it will attack Iranian sites used to attack commercial shipping or its own assets, and Israel has similarly demonstrated that it will use any Iranian provocation as a pretext to strike Iran. Though both parties are making efforts to calibrate attacks to prevent escalation by attempting to prevent casualties. To this end, President Trump reportedly appealed to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to limit Israel's 08 June retaliatory strikes on Iran. Despite the current escalatory loop being closed, the prospect of further kinetic exchanges cannot be ruled out.
On 10 June, the President posted on Truth Social that the Iranians are taking too long to negotiate and that "now they will have to pay the price." He also told Fox News that he is considering targeting Iranian infrastructure. This rhetoric shift comes after yesterday's strikes on Iran.
On 09 June at approximately 17:00 ET, the U.S. carried out three waves of strikes against 20 Iranian targets in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Minab, Sirik, and Jask in response to Iran's 08 June downing of an AH-64 Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. strikes on Iran's southern coast targeted radar installations, missile launch facilities, and air defense systems. Local Iranian officials claim the strikes also destroyed a major drinking water distribution facility serving Sirik County. In a Truth Social post, President Trump stated that the U.S. retaliated out of “necessity” and the U.S. military characterized the strikes as proportionate.
Iran responded by launching strikes at U.S. bases in the region including Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan, Naval Support Activity Bahrain (NSA Bahrain), and an unspecified base in Kuwait. Jordan claims to have intercepted five missiles, Bahrain’s military said it had intercepted and destroyed a number of drones and missiles, and Kuwait's defense ministry reported interception. U.S. officials say “nearly” all missiles and drones launched from Iran have been intercepted, though videos of an impact in Bahrain have emerged. Iran’s state broadcaster, IRIB, said that Iran will reassess nuclear talks with the U.S., but Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's calls to Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers suggest that backchannel diplomatic efforts are still ongoing.
The U.S. strike package targeted military infrastructure Iran used to facilitate its "toll booth" system to control shipping. This attack could be viewed as a shaping operation to degrade Iran's ability to defend against larger military operations in southern Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In a separate incident, on 10 June, the UKMTO reported an exchange of fire between an unspecified cargo vessel's security team and six gunmen on a small boat, 88 NM, southwest of Balhaf, Yemen. The incident resulted in the small craft turning away. No attribution has been confirmed but the incident location raises the possibility that this was the Houthis making good on its threat against "Israeli shipping," the same pretext it used to curtail Red Sea shipping between 2023 and 2025.
Situation Report
- 09 June: The U.S. launches retaliatory strikes on Iran following the downing of a helicopter.
- 09 June: Iran submits a new ceasefire proposal to the U.S. per Sky News Arabia.
- 08 June: An Iranian drone collides with a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. The pilots are successfully rescued.
- 08 June: Israel launches a wave of retaliatory airstrikes on military targets and petrochemical facilities in central and western Iran.
- 08 June: The Houthis in Yemen launch a ballistic missile at central Israel that is intercepted and issue a threat to stop "Israeli shipping" in the Red Sea.
- 07 June: Iran launches 25 ballistic missiles targeting the Ramat David Air Base in northern Israel in retaliation for Israel's Beirut bombing.
- 07 June: Hezbollah fires a barrage of rockets toward northern Israel. Israel then conducts a targeted airstrike on alleged Hezbollah infrastructure in two apartment buildings in southern Beirut (Dahiyeh), killing at least two.
- 07 June: U.S. forces shoot down two Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 06 June: U.S. forces shoot down two Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 05 June: U.S. forces shoot down four Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces then attack Iranian radar sites on Goruk and Qeshm islands. In response, Iran fires seven ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
- 05 June: Suspected drone attack causes explosion at Oman's Mina Al Fahal crude export terminal.
- 05 June: The U.S. Navy interdicts Iran-linked vessel MT DAVINA in the Indian Ocean.
- 05 June: The UK and France are reportedly finalizing a plan to conduct mine clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz to begin once a lasting ceasefire is achieved.
- 05 June: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem rejects partial ceasefire deal with Israel in televised address.
Airspace Status
- Bahrain: airspace restricted
- Iran: airspace restricted
- Kuwait: airspace restricted
- Cyprus: airspace open
- Egypt: airspace open
- Iraq: airspace open
- Israel: airspace open
- Jordan: airspace open
- Lebanon: airspace open
- Oman: airspace open
- Qatar: airspace open
- Saudi Arabia: airspace open
- Syria: airspace open
- UAE: airspace open
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