Youth-led protests that began in France in mid-September as a student-focused movement have tapped into a European-wide vein of anti-government sentiment that is now poised to spark unrest across that continent. Travelers should expect serious disruptions to normal travel and operations in Paris and the surrounding Île-de-France region, as well as in other major cities throughout France. Travelers should also exercise increased caution and avoid crowds in Lisbon, Porto, Milan, Rome, Madrid, and Tirana. People and organizations with planned travel anywhere in Europe should assess their potential exposure to large-scale protests and their associated risks, as these protests are likely to expand.
Global Guardian Recommendations:
- Avoid all protests and concentrations of security forces.
- Expect heightened security and severe disruptions to overland travel in the vicinity of protests.
- Utilize secure transportation for all overland travel within France, especially in and around Paris.
- Utilize Executive Protection (EP) agents for any travel on foot within Paris and impacted cities.
- Consider secure transportation for travel to other European cities that have been or may be impacted by violent unrest.
Situation
- On Monday, 19 October, France implemented limited curfews for several localities as protests became riotous over the weekend, leading to violent clashes between demonstrators and police, as well as widespread destruction of property, arson, and looting.
- Rioters vandalized or looted some 3,000 shops and businesses over the weekend.
- Protesters blockaded the entrance to the Louvre on Monday, 19 October, indicating demonstrators are consciously seeking to disrupt normal tourism operations as a point of leverage over the government.
- On Saturday, 17 October, at least 550,000 people (with some credible estimates putting the figure closer to 900,000) protested across France, as major trade unions, parents, teachers, and the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) movement joined the initial student protests.
- Some 60,000 law enforcement officers were deployed nationwide, 1,000 of whom were injured. These officers took more than 2,500 people into custody. The student-led protests last month and earlier this month saw some 6,000 people arrested total.
- In prior waves of arrest, some 85% of those arrested were minors. In this wave, which constitutes over a quarter of the total number of people arrested since early September, over 70% of the people arrested were adults. This illustrates a shift in the protests’ underlying grievances, from student-specific complaints about school conditions and austerity, to a general grievance against bad governance and the cost of living.
- Prime Minister Lecornu has called on local governments to implement limited curfews in the face of calls for continued protests. The Gilets Jaunes have announced plans to repeat Saturday’s protest on 24 October and all subsequent Saturdays until protest demands are met. PM Lecornu indicated his government may institute a state of emergency, which would grant the government broad powers to curtail individual liberties, including through the implementation of a national curfew.
- Interior Minister Laurent Nunez offered to resign on 19 October. His resignation was rejected by President Macron.
Curfews
Curfews and movement restrictions are likely to be implemented in Paris in the coming days.
- The following areas were covered by the 19 October curfew and will likely be included in renewed interdictions going forward. From 20:00 to 06:00, access was denied for:
- The central pedestrian zone of Place de la République
- The sector bounded by the following streets:
- Place Maurice Quentin
- Rue Berger from Place Maurice Quentin to the corner of Boulevard Sébastopol
- The portion of Passage des Lingères that faces Rue Berger
- Boulevard Sébastopol up to the corner of Rue Rambuteau
- Rue Rambuteau from Boulevard Sébastopol to Allée André Breton
- Allée André Breton
In addition to the curfew, the government also implemented a ban on unapproved gatherings or protests in:
- The area around the Élysée Palace, the Interior Ministry, and the Champs-Élysées
- The area surrounding the National Assembly and Matignon, the Prime Minister's headquarters
- The Les Halles area
- The Senate district
- Place de la République, Bastille, Place de la Bourse, and Place d’Italie
- The neighborhoods surrounding the city’s major train stations of Gare du Nord, Gare Montparnasse, Gare d’Austerlitz, Gare de Lyon, Gare de l’Est and Gare Saint-Lazare
Analysis
The violence seen this weekend across France is only the most recent expression of a broader current of discontent that has been building in the country for decades. The people of France face rising costs of living, particularly for food, gas, and rent, while real wages have been stagnant and unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, has grown. Rising energy prices due to the conflict in Ukraine and Iran have not helped the situation. In the shadow of this growing dissatisfaction with the country’s management, the Macron government has long prioritized austerity measures aimed at alleviating the country’s dire financial position at the cost of potentially stabilizing, but expensive, social spending. The result has been a steady rise in socio-political pressure that manifests as episodic unrest.
The Gilets Jaunes movement, the farmers’ protests, the 2023 anti-police violence riots, and now the student protests are all converging on a singular basic demand for better services and lower costs.
This is a demand no government of France can realistically meet in the near term. There are three main political camps in France, none of which has enough power to pass legislation that would meaningfully address the drivers of unrest. The Macron government has been largely discredited in the eyes of voters, and after 10 years in power, the incumbent is barred from holding a third term. The alternatives to Macron’s center are Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party. Macron’s government is unlikely to waver in its push for austerity, and even if it did, it lacks the legitimacy to resolve the underlying dynamics driving unrest in the long term. The RN has been framing the unrest as directly instigated, managed, and coordinated by LFI and associated leftist organizations. LFI has counter-accused the government of gross mismanagement at best and at worst, conscious collaboration with the RN in fomenting unrest to make the question of law and order more central to the coming election than economics.
Ahead of the general election slated for April of 2027, it is very unlikely that a political solution to the unrest is found. It is more likely that the current government makes token concessions while relying on increasingly repressive controls on movement and demonstration. It is also probable that the Ministry of the Interior directs the police to continue violently enforcing these controls to disincentivize participation in protests until they dissipate.
Looking Forward
- Violent protests are likely to continue as French security policies regarding large demonstrations all but ensure violent clashes between protesters and police forces.
- As media coverage of the protests in France grows, sympathetic protest movements in countries facing similar issues will likely arise. The moniker “Gilets Jeunes,” a play on the French word for youth and the “Yellow Vests” protests, is emerging as a converging youth movement.
- Protesters are very likely to continue concentrating at traditional protest sites including the Bastille, Place de la République, Place de la Nation, and Place d’Italie. Major institutions of higher education including La Sorbonne, Sciences Po, and other universities clustered in the 7th arrondissement are also likely to be targeted.
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