STATE DEPARTMENT LIFTS SHELTER-IN-PLACE FOR AMERICAN TOURISTS IN MEXICO — BUT SECURITY EXPERTS WARN SPRING BREAKERS TO STAY ALERT

"Whenever a top figure in a criminal organization in Mexico is killed or captured, the organization almost never disintegrates. But what does happen is we see a violent restructuring of the top level of figures within that cartel. "

Amid questions about whether cartel-related unrest in Mexico will spread or stabilize, WUSA9 sought analysis from Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Tomás Michael Carvallo on the risks still unfolding.

Carvallo warned that the cartel’s lack of a clear successor makes a violent internal power struggle likely in the weeks ahead, with restructuring often playing out through armed confrontations across cartel-controlled territory. While emphasizing that tourists are not the intended targets, he urged travelers to closely monitor local developments and State Department alerts, noting how quickly conditions can shift from calm to crisis—and back again.

'THEY'RE FREAKING OUT.' SHOULD TRAVELERS CANCEL THEIR CANCUN TRIPS?

“Because it's so tourist-heavy, the organized crimes tend to leave it alone; they don’t want to poke the bear. But folks are going to have to reconsider the totality of the security landscape in those places.”

As questions mounted about travel to Cancun after cartel violence erupted in Puerto Vallarta, USA TODAY incorporated Global Guardian’s perspective on how travelers should evaluate risk in Mexico’s most visited destination.

Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard noted that while violence in core tourist zones remains relatively rare, high-profile enforcement actions can shift security dynamics and warrant reassessment. He emphasized that travelers should look beyond headlines, review State Department advisories and consider the broader security landscape when making near-term decisions.

IS IT SAFE TO GO TO MEXICO RIGHT NOW? WHAT TRAVELERS NEED TO KNOW AS CARTEL VIOLENCE AFFECTS TOURIST SPOTS

“People who maybe had a vacation booked to Puerto Vallarta or Cancun or somewhere else in the next 48 hours, we’ll say you might want to reconsider that because we don’t know exactly how this is going to continue to play out. It could get worse, it could get better.”

Cartel violence tied to the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho” has led to flight cancellations, cruise itinerary changes and government advisories, prompting People to feature Global Guardian’s perspective on near-term travel risk. Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard noted that while most resort areas have been relatively spared from direct impact, conditions remain fluid and travelers should take a conservative approach as security dynamics continue to evolve.

'DO NOT GO TO MEXICO.' SECURITY EXPERTS, FORMER CIA WARN TRAVELERS.

“And I think we're likely to see similar retaliatory violence come out of those operations in the future. So, I don't think this is a one-and-done situation. We could see this with some frequency in the future.”

As cartel-related violence flared following the death of CJNG leader “El Mencho,” USA TODAY looked to Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard to assess the implications for travel and on-the-ground security conditions.

Ballard explained that while major resort areas and Mexico City have largely avoided direct impact, the broader security environment remains fluid. He advised travelers with imminent plans to reconsider near-term trips to affected areas, emphasized the importance of due diligence and contingency planning, and cautioned that retaliatory violence could follow high-level cartel disruptions.

DC MEN TRAPPED IN PUERTO VALLARTA AS CARTEL VIOLENCE ERUPTS ACROSS MEXICO

"The CJNG has no clear succession plan, making a violent internal power struggle across Mexico highly likely in the days and weeks ahead."

After the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho” triggered coordinated violence across 22 Mexican states—including fires, roadblocks and airport disruptions—WUSA9 reported on Americans sheltering in place as unrest unfolded, citing Global Guardian, which warned that the cartel’s lack of a clear succession plan increases the likelihood of internal power struggles and additional retaliatory violence in the near term. The warning reinforces the need for travelers to closely monitor developments and prepare contingency plans as conditions evolve.

IS IT SAFE TO TRAVEL TO MEXICO RIGHT NOW?

"But as we have seen, this can all go sideways quickly, so you want to be paying attention to what is going on before departing."

Following cartel-related unrest in Mexico after the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho,” The New York Times turned to Global Guardian’s Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard for expert insight on evolving travel risk conditions.

Ballard notes that while major destinations such as Cabo San Lucas and Mexico City remain viable for travel, security dynamics can shift rapidly after high-level cartel enforcement actions. He emphasizes the importance of real-time monitoring, reviewing U.S. State Department advisories, and utilizing secure transportation—reinforcing that informed, proactive decision-making is essential in dynamic threat environments.

US PRESSURE FACTORED IN MEXICO'S DECISION TO TAKE OUT JALISCO CARTEL BOSS, EXPERTS SAY

“The risk in that is that you are not really moving the needle. (If) El Mencho is replaced quickly and you don’t see a huge fracture, a month from now nothing is really changed and we are back to the same old, same old,” he said. “It becomes a tactical success but a strategic failure. That is what we risk.”

Following the killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner spoke with Border Report about what the operation means for cartel stability and U.S.–Mexico security cooperation.

In the interview, Buckner explains that while eliminating a high-profile cartel leader may represent a tactical win, it does not dismantle the infrastructure behind narcotics production and trafficking. He also discusses the role of U.S. intelligence support, the mounting pressure on Mexico to continue targeting cartel leadership, and the potential downstream effects such operations could have on regional stability and cross-border supply chains.

Click below to watch the interview, which runs from approximately minute 5:00 to minute 25:00.

On 22 February 2026, Mexican military and law enforcement agents undertook an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco to capture (or kill) Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and the most wanted man in both Mexico and the U.S. He was the head of the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico. El Mencho, along with several other key leaders within the CJNG, were killed or captured in the operation, which was supported by U.S. intelligence. 

Following the operation were widespread shootouts and cartel blockades across multiple states in Mexico, starting in Jalisco and radiating outward as the news spread. Criminal actors hijacked and burned vehicles, attacked gas stations and small businesses, deployed tire spikes on roadways, and engaged security forces in multiple armed confrontations. Multiple airlines cancelled flights into Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and Mazatlán out of an abundance of caution. While the violence began in Jalisco state, there were over 250 confirmed blockades in 22 states. Authorities indicated nearly all roadblocks were cleared as of early morning hours on 23 February. 

Municipal governments and schools in multiple states were closed on Monday, 23 February, amid ongoing concerns of violence. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued multiple alerts to U.S. citizens to shelter-in-place. Thelatest alertestablishes remote-work and shelter-in-place orders for U.S. government personnel for 23 February in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzman (Jalisco), Cancun (Quintana Roo), Playa del Carmen (Quintana Roo), Cozumel (Quintana Roo), Reynosa (Tamaulipas state), and Tijuana (Baja California). 

Large-scale disruptions are a common retaliatory tactic used by criminal groups after high-level arrests or leadership targeting. The intent is to create operational chaos, slow security force deployments, and pressure authorities regarding detained figures. A similarly disruptive but more localized version of this happened in Culiacan, Sinaloa in 2019 during an attempted arrest of Ovidio Guzman, one of the sons of El Chapo. He was released from custody after more than 700 cartel gunmen laid siege to the jail where he was being held. 

As of 20 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst massive U.S. military buildup in the region, stalling negotiations, and increasingly concerning statements from American, European, and Iranian officials. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following: 

• Avoid non-essential travel to Israel.
• Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
• Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.

MEXICO | TAIWAN

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.