Diplomatic efforts are continuing amid growing indications of renewed military confrontation with Iran. Iranian negotiators left Doha on 01 November with a draft proposal, and a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on 02 November to continue efforts to prevent or forestall renewed hostilities. The visit marks the third round of talks involving Qatar in the last week. However, on 03 November, Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, declared that the U.S. response “was not convincing." Global Guardian continues to assess that kinetic hostilities with Iran are likely to resume as early as this week despite conflicting signals.
On 02 November, the U.S. announced that it scheduled trilateral Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi from 10–11 November. While the UAE has been an interlocutor in these peace talks, the timing and location of these meetings may suggest that the U.S. will allow negotiations with Iran to continue for at least another week before it resorts to military coercion. Though similar diplomatic signals were conveyed prior to the 2025 12-Day War and Operation Epic Fury, the choice to hold Ukraine peace negotiations in the UAE next week does not preclude the resumption of conflict with Iran.
In Israel, authorities have begun converting underground parking lots of major hospitals into hardened emergency wards and ordered inspections of public shelters, per foreign reports. Israel made similar preparations immediately preceding the previous two rounds of conflict with Iran. On 03 November, Kan News' military correspondent lamented on social media about updated military censorship policies concerning the coverage of publicly available military aircraft movements. Together, these are two of the final observable indicators that Israel is ready for a new round of conflict with Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah.
Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to the Middle East ahead of a likely return to conflict.
- Global Guardian advises against all travel via Saudi airports, with the exception of Medina's Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport (MED).
- Continue to avoid all travel to southern Saudi Arabia, including the provinces of Aseer, Jazan, and Najran.
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Firms with operations or personnel in the Middle East should review business continuity plans and reconsider upcoming travel due to the increasing likelihood of the war with Iran resuming in the coming weeks.
According to Kan News, during the talks between senior Mecca Pact leaders and their Iranian counterparts last week, Saudi Arabia told Iran that it would neither allow U.S. sorties to be launched from its territory nor take part in attacks on Iran itself. In return, Saudi Arabia expects Iran not to attack its territory. Neighboring Qatar and the UAE are taking a different approach. On 02 November, both countries conducted civil drills practicing their responses to conflict. Passengers at Doha’s Hamad International Airport (HIA) were notified of the exercise. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has been warned that attacks on Gulf infrastructure could result in individual or collective retaliation.
Meanwhile, on 02 November, the U.S. conducted limited defensive strikes on Iranian positions on Qeshm Island, following Iran’s targeting of a U.S. aircraft over the Strait of Hormuz. While this attack was the first to be reported in months, it is likely that the U.S. has struck Iranian coastal positions several times in the last three weeks.
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